2008 Senate and House Target States

[Joe Biden 2020]

Based on the 2002 Results, what are the Democrats target states in 2008 in both the Senate and the House?

What are the Republican's target states to either retake or increase their majority in 2008?

[Keystone Phil]

I think the main targets for the Dems in the Senate would be Colorado and Minnesota.

[Flying Dog]

Democrats:
Maine-If Collins retires.
New Hampshire-If Lynch runs
North Carolina-If Easly Runs
Georgia-If Cleland runs (Time for some payback)
Minnesota-Coleman is vunerable
Texas-Yes I'm senile
Colorado-Rep. Udall already says he will run and he will win.
New Mexico- If that old fart retires. He hasnt been raising any money


Republicans-
New Jersey-Only republican who can win is Kean Jr.
Delaware
Michigan-If Levin retires.
Loisiana

[Kevin]

I heard that Allard may retire is this true? In addition Colemen is going to be vunlerable in 08 due to him being a conservative Republican in a Democratic leaning state, he is like Santorum in this way, However I have a good feeling he will pull this one out and win But it is just too early to tell who is oppenent might be any ideas?  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maine-If Collins retires.

Unfortunately she probably won't.

New Hampshire-If Lynch runs

Not happening. Too bad.

North Carolina-If Easly Runs

Here's a chance.

Georgia-If Cleland runs (Time for some payback)

Not happening, even then unfortunately.

Minnesota-Coleman is vunerable

YES!

Texas-Yes I'm senile

No.

Colorado-Rep. Udall already says he will run and he will win.

Here's a chance.

New Mexico- If that old fart retires. He hasnt been raising any money

Pretty much true

New Jersey-Only republican who can win is Kean Jr.

But even he would be the underdog, and if he loses to Menendez, he's not winning here.

Delaware

Biden will run, Biden will win, end of story.

Michigan-If Levin retires.

True, but even then we'd have a slight edge I think.

Louisiana

Will be tough.

[Flying Dog]

I heard that Allard may retire is this true?

There are  rumors about it happening. Think about it, Oct. 2004-State legislature republican. Both senate seats repub, gov-repub. Jan 2009-all democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

Delaware

Biden will run, Biden will win, end of story.

What if Biden decides against it during his "serious" Presidential bid?

[Flying Dog]

Maine-If Collins retires.

Unfortunately she probably won't.-agreed

New Hampshire-If Lynch runs

Not happening. Too bad.-why?

North Carolina-If Easly Runs

Here's a chance.

Georgia-If Cleland runs (Time for some payback)

Not happening, even then unfortunately.-probably right.

Minnesota-Coleman is vunerable

YES!

Texas-Yes I'm senile

No.

Colorado-Rep. Udall already says he will run and he will win.

Here's a chance.

New Mexico- If that old fart retires. He hasnt been raising any money

Pretty much true

New Jersey-Only republican who can win is Kean Jr.

But even he would be the underdog, and if he loses to Menendez, he's not winning here.-maybe

Delaware

Biden will run, Biden will win, end of story.-he is running for prez

Michigan-If Levin retires.

True, but even then we'd have a slight edge I think.

Louisiana

Will be tough.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Delaware

Biden will run, Biden will win, end of story.

What if Biden decides against it during his "serious" Presidential bid?

Biden had his chance, he blew it, and if he has half a brain he'd realize he's not getting another one.

[nini2287]

Democrats:
Maine-If Collins retires.

She has said before that she will retire (whether she holds that promise is yet to be seen)--the Democrats should pick this up if she does resign.

New Hampshire-If Lynch runs

That's the only way the race will be competitive.

North Carolina-If Easly Runs

I think he said he didn't want to pursue a future in politics after his current term.  I've heard some rumors that John Edwards might run...lol...

Georgia-If Cleland runs (Time for some payback)

He'd lose again.  Safe GOP.

Minnesota-Coleman is vunerable

Absolutely, unless Al Franken is the nominee.

Texas-Yes I'm senile

It's an outside shot with Cornyn's approval ratings.  I could see a 2006 TX Governors Race style election unfold here and have 1 or 2 strong independent candidates (maybe Kinky if he comes close but loses the Governor race).

Colorado-Rep. Udall already says he will run and he will win.

With or without Allard on the ticket, this race will be very competitive.

New Mexico- If that old fart retires. He hasnt been raising any money

Only if Domenici (a good Senator) retires.


Republicans-

New Jersey-Only republican who can win is Kean Jr.

Not true whatsoever.  If Lautenberg's approvals stay down, this could be very competitive, although I suspect the Democratic machine will be able to make sure a Democrat wins no matter what.

Delaware

Should Biden retire, Biden's son (the Secretary of State) will run and win this seat.

Michigan-If Levin retires.

Correct.

Louisiana

This will be a good race, but I think Landrieu's time might be up.

Also, if Warner retires Virginia will be competitive (same with Alaska/Stevens if Tony Knowles runs--although he will probably win the Governor election this year).

My early prediction:

R--->D
Maine
Colorado
Minnesota

D--->R
Lousiana

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let me say that even if he was 100% assured of victory, I would not support Franken for Senate. I like Franken, he's funny and has great politics, but he is not Senate material. Can you honestly take a Senator Franken seriously? He needs to just stick to what he's good at, which is what he's doing now.

Now as far as other candidates go, Mike Ceresi was very expected to jump in this year (when asked if Dayton were to drop out a few months before he did if he would step in the race he replied "in a nanosecond"), making me wonder if the DFL made some sort of under the table deal with him keeping him in the wings for 2008. Hatch would be in perfect condition if he narrowly loses the Governor's race (though I really hope that doesn't happen), his running mate, former State Auditor Judi Dutcher would likely be considered too, that'd be a very interesting race since she was originally elected as a Republican and changed parties in the middle of her second term, it'd be a former Republican vs. a former Democrat. Then there's our two frontrunners for Attorney General (who both jumped in after our previously annointed scandal-ridden all around asshole of a candidate dropped out at the 11th hour), State Sen. Steve Kelley and former Rep. Bill Luther, whoever loses the primary would very likely to make a shot at it, or both of them if Jeff Johnson wins the AG race but that's a very scary thought I don't want to think about! And of course Minneapolis mayor RT Rybak's name always comes up, but while I like him and he's been an excellent mayor, I wouldn't want him running since he might be perceived as a bit too liberal, and as Coleman is a former St. Paul mayor this might inflame the rivalry and Coleman might do a little too good in St. Paul (in 2002 he didn't win a single precinct yet did managed to crack 30%), and we don't need that.

I would say my perfect scenario would be Hatch as Gov, Dutcher as Lt. Gov, Kelley as Attorney General and Luther as the candidate and thus Senator.

[Tender Branson]

Colorado-Rep. Udall already says he will run and he will win.

That´s all i know for now

[Smash255]

If Mejias doesn't pull off the upset, but has a strong showing the 08 race in NY-03 could be a tough one for King.   Its a Presidential year, in a district that is usually Dem on the Presidential level, and a strong candidate is possible if Nassau DA Kathleen Rice (whose name has been thrown around for an 08 run) decides to take on King.  Hopefully this isn't even an issue with mejias pulling an upset

[Galactic Overlord]

Democrats:
Maine-If Collins retires.

She has said before that she will retire (whether she holds that promise is yet to be seen)--the Democrats should pick this up if she does resign.

New Hampshire-If Lynch runs

That's the only way the race will be competitive.

North Carolina-If Easly Runs

I think he said he didn't want to pursue a future in politics after his current term.  I've heard some rumors that John Edwards might run...lol...

Georgia-If Cleland runs (Time for some payback)

He'd lose again.  Safe GOP.

Minnesota-Coleman is vunerable

Absolutely, unless Al Franken is the nominee.

Texas-Yes I'm senile

It's an outside shot with Cornyn's approval ratings.  I could see a 2006 TX Governors Race style election unfold here and have 1 or 2 strong independent candidates (maybe Kinky if he comes close but loses the Governor race).

Colorado-Rep. Udall already says he will run and he will win.

With or without Allard on the ticket, this race will be very competitive.

New Mexico- If that old fart retires. He hasnt been raising any money

Only if Domenici (a good Senator) retires.


Republicans-

New Jersey-Only republican who can win is Kean Jr.

Not true whatsoever.  If Lautenberg's approvals stay down, this could be very competitive, although I suspect the Democratic machine will be able to make sure a Democrat wins no matter what.

Delaware

Should Biden retire, Biden's son (the Secretary of State) will run and win this seat.

Michigan-If Levin retires.

Correct.

Louisiana

This will be a good race, but I think Landrieu's time might be up.

Also, if Warner retires Virginia will be competitive (same with Alaska/Stevens if Tony Knowles runs--although he will probably win the Governor election this year).

My early prediction:

R--->D
Maine
Colorado
Minnesota

D--->R
Lousiana

That's pretty much what I think. Another state to watch is Montana.  Should Baucus retire, Dennis Rehberg would be a strong contender to pick up the seat for the Republicans.  If Harkin should retire in Iowa, there is another possibility.  I'd say Mike Rounds could make it a race against Tim Johnson in South Dakota, but Dakota governors haven't been up to running for Senate lately.

As far as Colorado, I think Allard wins if he runs.  If not, the seat is a toss-up. 

[nini2287]

That's pretty much what I think. Another state to watch is Montana.  Should Baucus retire, Dennis Rehberg would be a strong contender to pick up the seat for the Republicans.  If Harkin should retire in Iowa, there is another possibility.  I'd say Mike Rounds could make it a race against Tim Johnson in South Dakota, but Dakota governors haven't been up to running for Senate lately.

As far as Colorado, I think Allard wins if he runs.  If not, the seat is a toss-up. 

I forgot about those seats.  I'd think that Baucus and Harkin wouldn't run if it would endanger the Democrats' chances of gaining the Senate.  However, Rehberg or Former Gov. Marc Raiciot might run anyway.  Even if Baucus does retire, Gov. Schweitzer might run for the open seat.  Rounds might run, but outside of him I don't think anyone could take down Johnson.  Right now, Allard has the lowest (I believe) approval ratings in the country, so if he runs again, it'll be interesting to see if sponsors another gay marriage bill.

[Nym90]

Regarding Michigan, if Levin runs there is absolutely no chance he'd lose. If he retires, it's a lean Dem seat.

[Soaring Eagle]

For the Senate:

GOP - NJ, MI, LA

Dem - NH, CO, OR, NC, NM, MN, ME, VA, and possibly GA or OK

The Dems have more pickup opportunities because of how many seats they lost in 1996 and 2002. If they don't take back the Senate this year, they will in 2008.

[Sam Spade]

A lot of this depends on who retires for 2008 and who doesn't.  And on the strength of Presidential tickets also.

Things will certainly not be as flexible as they can be in off-year elections.

[WMS]

New Mexico- If that old fart retires. He hasnt been raising any money

Hey now, Domenici is a very good Senator for NM. And at least 65% of New Mexicans agree. He has said he will run again and he will crush whoever the state machine throws up against him.