German state and local elections, September 2006

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lower Saxony Results from the Community Elections yesterday:

CDU: 41,3% (-1,3%)
SPD: 36,6% (-2,0%)
Greens: 7,8% (+1,1%)
FDP: 6,7% (+0,5%)

Independent voter groups: 6.1% (+1.6%)
Left.PDS: 0.8% (+0.2%)
REP: 0.2% (-0.3%)
NPD: 0.2% (+0.1%)
WASG: 0.2% (+0.2%)

All other parties were below 0.1%.

Turnout: 51.8% (-4.4%)



Total number of seats won on county-level:
CDU 956 (-105)
SPD 872 (-97)
Greens 172 (+29)
FDP 163 (+21)
Independent groups 155 (+66)
Left.PDS 20 (+14)
REP 3 (+-0)
NPD 6 (+6)
WASG 3 (+3)
German Communist Party 1 (+1)
Animal Rights Party 1 (+1)


Despite the fact that the CDU was the strongest party state-wide, the SPD became the largest party in 24 of Lower Saxony's counties and independent cities, while the CDU finished first in 22 counties.

Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/ns06k.gif

[Middle-aged Europe]

And another Berlin poll was released yesterday (Emnid, 09/10):

SPD 33%
CDU 22%
Left.PDS 15%
Greens 14%
FDP 9%
WASG 3%
Other parties 4%

SPD + Left.PDS = 48%
CDU + Greens + FDP = 45%

[minionofmidas]

List of plurality switches
to SPD
Götingen district (southernmost on map)
Lüneburg district (isolated SPD district in NE)

to CDU
Wittmund district (isolated CDU district on NW coast)

SPD gains majority (had plurality before)
Emden city (yeah well, should be obvious)

CDU loses majority (but keeps plurality)
Grafschaft Bentheim district (westernmost on map)
Osnabrück rural district (big one south of the CDU majority districts)

[NewFederalist]

NPD consists of people who are not very intelligent.

They don't even look very intelligent. Everyone who has seen Holger Apfel (the NPD leader in Saxony) only a single time knows what I'm talking about. And their neither charismatic nor are they particularly articulate. This is often seen as the main reason why now right-wing extremist could establish itself on federal level after WWII: The lack of any charismatic or remotely intelligent leaders.

That is probably a very good thing indeed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the head of the polling firm Forsa a double-digit result for the NPD in Mecklenburg might be possible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Here we go... first projections are out.



BERLIN

ARD (6:00)
SPD: 31.0% / 50 seats
CDU: 21.5% / 35 seats
Left.PDS: 13.5% / 22 seats
Greens: 13.5% / 22 seats
FDP: 7.5% / 12 seats
Other parties: 13.0% / 0 seats
Turnout: 59.0%

ZDF (6:00)
SPD: 31.5% / 52 seats
CDU: 22.0% / 36 seats
Left.PDS: 13.5% / 22 seats
Greens: 13.5% / 22 seats
FDP: 8.0% / 13 seats
Other parties: 11.5% / 0 seats
Turnout: 59.5%

Both TV stations are projecting a very thin one-seat majority for SPD/Greens or SPD/Left.PDS respectively.

[Middle-aged Europe]

MECKLENBURG

ARD (6:11)
SPD: 29.7% / 22 seats
CDU: 28.8% / 22 seats
Left.PDS: 18.1% / 14 seats
FDP: 10.1% / 8 seats
NPD: 6.4% / 5 seats
Greens: 3.3% / 0 seats
Other parties: 3.6% / 0 seats
Turnout: 61.0%

ZDF (6:00)
CDU: 30.0% / 23 seats
SPD: 29.0% / 22 seats
Left.PDS: 18.0% / 14 seats
FDP: 9.5% / 7 seats
NPD: 6.0% / 5 seats
Greens: 3.5% / 0 seats
Other parties: 4.0% / 0 seats
Turnout: 59.0%

Here, a thin one-seat majority for SPD/Left.PDS is projected too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NPD: 6.4% / 5 seats

NPD: 6.0% / 5 seats

F***

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Much better news, that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

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Much better news, that.

Because they have a majority or because it's a very thin majority which could change again during the evening?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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Much better news, that.

Because they have a majority or because it's a very thin majority which could change again during the evening?

Option One

I don't think that Grand Coalitions are healthy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah, ok.

Btw, the NPD result is weaker than its was expected/feared by many. Definitely not good though.

[minionofmidas]

SPD seems to be strongest party in both West and (barely) East Berlin. Low Left showing in Berlin is a surprise. Apparently WASG, NPD and REP are all ~3%, which explains the insanely high "other" figure, haven't seen exact figures yet.

EDIT: WASG 2.9%, NPD 2.6% (90-odd% of ballots counted), REP just 0.9%, but Die Grauen 3.8%!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Update


BERLIN

ARD (10:23)
SPD: 30.8% / 50 seats
CDU: 21.5% / 35 seats
Greens: 13.3% / 22 seats
Left.PDS: 13.2% / 22 seats
FDP: 7.5% / 12 seats
Other parties: 13.7% / 0 seats
Turnout: 58.0%

ZDF (9:45)
SPD: 30.9% / 56 seats
CDU: 21.2% / 39 seats
Left.PDS: 13.4% / 24 seats
Greens: 13.2% / 24 seats
FDP: 7.6% / 14 seats
Other parties: 13.7% / 0 seats
Turnout: 59.5%


The SPD has still the choice between Greens and Left.PDS as future coalition partners and apparently they want to talk with both parties.

[Middle-aged Europe]

MECKLENBURG

ARD (10:22)
SPD: 30.2% / 23 seats
CDU: 28.8% / 22 seats
Left.PDS: 16.8% / 13 seats
FDP: 9.6% / 7 seats
NPD: 7.3% / 6 seats
Greens: 3.4% / 0 seats
Other parties: 3.9% / 0 seats
Turnout: 60.3%

ZDF (9:43)
SPD: 30.3% / 23 seats
CDU: 28.8% / 22 seats
Left.PDS: 16.8% / 13 seats
FDP: 9.6% / 7 seats
NPD: 7.3% / 6 seats
Greens: 3.4% / 0 seats
Other parties: 3.8% / 0 seats
Turnout: 59.0%


In this state, it will either be SPD/Left.PDS or SPD/CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Official result: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania


Percentages
SPD: 30.2% (-10.4%)
CDU: 28.8% (-2.6%)
Left.PDS. 16.8% (+0.4%)
FDP: 9.6% (+4.9%)
NPD: 7.3% (+6.5%)
Greens: 3.4% (+0.8%)
Other parties: 4.0% (+0.4%)

Seats
SPD: 23 (-10)
CDU: 22 (-3)
Left.PDS: 13 (+-0)
FDP: 7 (+7)
NPD: 6 (+6)
Greens: 0 (+-0)
Other parties: 0 (+-0)

Turnout: 59.2% (-11.4%)

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it seems the NPD is already "celebrating" its victory... at a NPD election party in Mecklenburg a group of journalists was attacked. One of them suffered minor injuries.

[minionofmidas]

You forgot to mention turnout, which at 59.2% was better than I feared (though down 11.4 points).

BERLIN
Turnout 58.0% (-10.1!)
SPD 30.8% (+1.1) 53 seats (+9)
CDU 21.3% (-2.5) 37 seats (+2)
Left 13.4% (-9.2) 23 seats (-10)
Greens 13.1% (+4.0) 23 seats (+9)
FDP 7.6% (-2.3) 13 seats (-2)
Graue 3.8% (+2.4)
WASG 2.9% (+2.9)
NPD 2.6% (+1.7)
other 4.5% (+1.9)

Berlin redistributes mandates to districts ... creating overhang at that level ... but, unlike Bundestag elections, also creating additional mandates for other parties to make the result proportional again ... thence the parliament is always larger than the nominal 127, and always a different size. It was 169 in 1999, 141 in 2001, now it's 149.

Direct seats won
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
CDU 20 (+8)
SPD 15 (-9) - the CDU did narrowly outpoll the SPD in the constituency vote -
Left 1 (+1)

Left mandate is the smallest in Rostock (5).
SPD wins all of Schwerin, Wismar, Nordwestmecklenburg, Ludwigslust, northern Parchim, western Güstrow for a ten-seat belt in the west, plus the three remaining Rostock seats, district 3 in Neubrandenburg and Mecklenburg-Strelitz, and district 21 in Mecklenburg-Strelitz.

Berlin
SPD 40 (+14) (and up 40 on 1999. )
CDU 19 (no change) (down 27 on 1999 though. )
Left 14 (-18) (down 16 on 1999)
Greens 5 (+4) (up 3 on 1999)

reddish - SPD
blueish - CDU
purplish - Left
greenish - greens
lightest shade - lead under 2 points (not needed for Greens)
middle shade - 2 to 10 points
darkest shade - over 10 points

Districts were changed on 2001 (and now do not follow the boundaries of the old 23 districts that were merged into the current 12 anymore), but the old Green district(s) were in Eastern Kreuzberg, the CDU 2001 results were roughly where they are now, and the Left swept all of old East Berlin that year. Literally all. Quite a marked change now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Turnout: 59.2% (-11.4%)

You forgot to mention turnout, which at 59.2% was better than I feared (though down 11.4 points).

And some other maps from election.de:


BERLIN



MECKLENBURG

[minionofmidas]

Turnout: 59.2% (-11.4%)

You forgot to mention turnout, which at 59.2% was better than I feared (though down 11.4 points).

You put it in the wrong place!

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And your maps don't add anything except that noone crossed fifty percent anywhere (okay, so that's interesting, I'll admit. )

[minionofmidas]

Oooh yeah. Top NPD result.
Municipality of Postlow, in Ostvorpommern.

Turnout 45%
Valid Votes 144
of which NPD 55 - 38.2%

[minionofmidas]

Actually, I've decided to do top and bottom results for turnout, all the major parties, the Greens, and others.

Top Turnout
Zülow 82.6 (+2.6) SPD 37.7 (-7.8) CDU 27.0 (-1.2) FDP 12.3 (+2.3) NPD 11.5 (+9.7) Left 5.7 (-0.7) Greens 0.8 (-1.9) other 4.9 (-0.6)

Bottom Turnout
Dreschwitz 35.6 (-12.8) CDU 32.3 (-5.7) SPD 23.0 (-8.8) Left 19.0 (+3.9) FDP 14.2 (+8.7) NPD 7.1 (+6.1) Greens 2.2 (-0.2) other 2.2 (-4.0)

Top SPD, bottom CDU
Blankenberg 65.9 (-10.9) SPD 60.4 (-1.6) CDU 12.5 (-5.1) LEft 10.8 (-3.4) NPD 10.0 (+10.0) FDP 2.9 (+1.9) Greens 1.7 (-0.3) other 1.7 (-1.4)

Bottom SPD
Rathebur 66.4 (+3.6) CDU 50.0 (-3.9) NPD 25.0 (+22.4) Left 12.5 (+2.0) SPD 7.5 (-25.4) FDP 1.3 (+1.3) Greens 1.3 (+1.3) other 2.4 (+2.4)

Top CDU, Bottom Left
Groß Wüstenfelde 59.2 (-11.4) CDU 68.4 (+1.2) SPD 11.6 (-11.4) FDP 6.2 (+2.6) NPD 5.3 (+5.3) Left 3.1 (-0.5) Greens 1.6 (0) other 3.8 (+2.2)

Top Left
Wilmshagen 47.2 (-10.0) Left 39.5 (+2.6) CDU 32.5 (+2.6) SPD 10.5 (-17.5) FDP 7.9 (+4.1) NPD 5.3 (+5.3) Greens 1.8 (+1.8) other 2.6 (+1.3)

Top FDP
Kummin 58.4 (-8.6) CDU 36.2 (-11.0) FDP 21.5 (+13.8) SPD 13.8 (-10.8) NPD 11.5 (+10.1) Left 6.9 (-7.9) Greens 2.3 (+1.6) other 7.7 (+4.2)

Bottom FDP
Langenhagen 65.7 (-6.5) SPD 47.7 (-0.7) Left 22.7 (+4.8) CDU 17.0 (-9.3) NPD 8.0 (+8.0) FDP 1.1 (-1.0) Greens 1.1 (-1.0) other 2.3 (-0.9)

Top NPD
Postlow 45.2 (-2.7) NPD 38.2 (+36.9) CDU 24.3 (-26.0) Left 13.9 (-1.1) FDP 12.5 (+10.5) SPD 9.7 (-17.1) Greens 0.7 (+0.7) other 0.7 (-3.9)

Bottom NPD
Silz 62.0 (-15.0) CDU 41.0 (-6.7) SPD 28.5 (-8.3) Left 15.0 (-3.2) FDP 8.5 (+3.1) Greens 2.0 (-1.3) NPD 0.0 (0) other 5.0 (+2.9)
Only place without a single NPD vote

Top Greens
Thandorf 62.4 (-22.2) SPD 30.1 (-21.3) CDU 28.0 (0) Greens 16.1 (+12.4) Left 9.7 (-0.6) FDP 9.7 (+8.8) NPD 4.3 (+3.4) other 2.2 (-2.5)

Bottom Greens
16 different places without a single Green vote

Top Other
Kuchelmiß 54.8 (-4.7) SPD 31.9 (-12.9) CDU 16.1 (-12.3) Left 12.9 (+2.6) NPD 10.6 (+9.8) FDP 7.1 (+2.6) Greens 4.5 (+0.5) other 16.9 (+9.4)

Bottom Other
7 different places without a single Other vote


Obviously these are all pretty small places.

[minionofmidas]

Oh yeah, Berlin's 12 districts each have an insanely large 55-member district assembly elected by Hare-Niemeyer with a 3% threshold, and a 6-member administration elected from the district assembly by D'Hondt. (The assembly decides who gets which responsibility, but they can't keep someone out just because he's the wrong party and they have a majority)
Here's party totals of seats in each across the city
SPD 219 / 30
CDU 163 / 20
Left 99 / 13
Greens 94 / 9
FDP 39
Graue 20
WASG 14
NPD 11
REP 1

[WMS]

Bottom NPD
Silz 62.0 (-15.0) CDU 41.0 (-6.7) SPD 28.5 (-8.3) Left 15.0 (-3.2) FDP 8.5 (+3.1) Greens 2.0 (-1.3) NPD 0.0 (0) other 5.0 (+2.9)
Only place without a single NPD vote

Strongest Party: CDU

[Middle-aged Europe]

In both states, the SPD has announced today with whom they want to form a coalition.

In Berlin, the SPD plans to continue the coalition with the Left Party, while in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, talks about the formation of a Grand coalition were announced.


EDIT: The Mecklenburg decision surprised me the most. I really thought they they had planned to continue their coalition with the Left Party. But apparently, a one-seat majority is a bit too shaky for them, after all. Maybe they rembered what happened in Schleswig-Holstein last year when PM Heide Simonis (SPD) formed a one-seat majorty coalition and failed to get formally re-elected by the parliament, because of a single "traitor" within the own ranks.

In Berlin I had actually hoped for SPD/Green, but Wowereit really seems to be fond of his coalition with the Left Party and both had worked together more or less smoothless in the past five years.

[minionofmidas]

A chastised old partner is usually more pliable than a triumphant new one...
Surprised about MVP. Let's hope the talks get nowhere. Wouldn't put it beyond Ringstorff to try for a coalition with the CDU just to show people it can't be done...