German state and local elections, September 2006

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah, finally I got a excuse to start another topic about German politics.   Next month we will hold three state-wide elections here...


September 10: Local elections in Lower Saxony

September 17: State/local elections in Berlin

September 17: State elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania


Because its the capital, Berlin will clearly be the most interesting and most important of the three contests. Berlin has a city/state-wide legislature, called Abgeordnetenhaus (which simply means "House of Representatives" ). In addition, Berlin is divided into 12 boroughs, each with its own elected legislature, the Bezirksverordnetenversammlung (borough assembly). The elections to the House and the borough assemblies are tradtionally held on the same day.

Coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two German states which are currently governed by a SPD/Left Party coalition. Probably not so coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two states where the local WASG chapters are vehemently opposed to the proposed merger between their party and the Left Party.PDS. As a result, the WASG is running with its own tickets in both states. The WASG chapters of Berlin and Mecklenburg are considered rogues by the federal WASG.




Lower Saxony


Results of the last election (09/09/2001)

CDU: 42.6%
SPD: 38.6%
Greens: 6.7%
FDP: 6.2%
PDS: 0.6%

Turnout: 56.2%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/kw_ns01.gif




Berlin


Results of the last house election (10/21/2001)

SPD: 29.7% / 44 seats
CDU: 23.8% / 35 seats
PDS: 22.6% / 33 seats
FDP: 9.9% / 15 seats
Greens: 9.1% / 14 seats

Turnout: 68.2%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/ahw01wk.gif


Results of the last borough election (10/21/2001)

SPD: 30.9%
CDU: 26.9%
PDS: 19.6%
Greens: 10.2%
FDP: 7.5%

Turnout: 66.9%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/ahw01bvv.gif


Latest polls

Forsa (07/26/2006)
SPD: 30%
CDU: 21%
Left.PDS: 17%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 10%

Infratest dimap (08/03/2006)
SPD: 35%
CDU: 23%
Left.PDS: 15%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 8%

Emnid (08/06/2006)
SPD: 32%
CDU: 22%
Left.PDS: 15%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 9%
WASG: 5%

Despite the bad numbers for the CDU, its also possible that the SPD/Left Party coalition is going to lose its majority. In the case that this happens, speculations about the compostion of the future government include a SPD/Left Party/Green coalition, a Grand coalition, or even a CDU/FDP/Green (currently the three parties making up the opposition) coalition.




Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania


Results of the last election (09/22/2002)

SPD: 40.6% / 33 seats
CDU: 31.4% / 25 seats
PDS: 16.4% / 13 seats
FDP: 4.7% / 0 seats
Greens: 2.6% / 0 seats

Turnout: 70.6%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/mv02e.gif


Latest polls

Emnid (07/24/2006)
CDU: 33%
SPD: 31%
Left.PDS: 21%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 4%

Infratest dimap (08/03/2006)
CDU: 33%
SPD: 29%
Left.PDS: 22%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 4%
NPD: 4%

Opinion polls may show the CDU in the lead, but SPD + Left Party are still holding a slim majority.

[minionofmidas]

Coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two German states which are currently governed by a SPD/Left Party coalition. Probably not so coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two states where the local WASG chapters are vehemently opposed to the proposed merger between their party and the Left Party.PDS.

This is not quite true. Actually they are deeply divided on the issue, as are most of the other Eastern state chapters. (Notice that except for Berlin, all the eastern chapters of the WASG are ridiculously small.) It's just that in these two states, opponents are in a majority... at least among those party members who bother about making their views known.

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It should be pointed out that the people currently running the Berlin WASG are basically a Trotskyite sect.

[Tender Branson]

The WASG chapters of Berlin and Mecklenburg are considered rogues by the federal WASG.

Something like the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria What is the treshold for being in the house in Berlin ? 4% or 5% ? If it´s 5%, then the WASG has to battle. MVP is also interesting to watch. What´s the treshold there ? I hope the Nazis (NPD) stay out of the state parliament, currently polling at 4%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The WASG chapters of Berlin and Mecklenburg are considered rogues by the federal WASG.

Something like the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria What is the treshold for being in the house in Berlin ? 4% or 5% ? If it´s 5%, then the WASG has to battle. MVP is also interesting to watch. What´s the treshold there ? I hope the Nazis (NPD) stay out of the state parliament, currently polling at 4%.

Threshold is 5% for federal and state elections everywhere in Germany.

Local elections are a different case. In Lower Saxony they don't have any threshold, for example.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah, and finally I got a excuse to behave like a chauvinist....


Here's perhaps something for BRTD's "hot communist rebel" collection.



That's Lucy Redler, the leader of the WASG in Berlin.

[jerusalemcar5]

the Bezirksverordnetenversammlung (borough assembly).

I love the length of that name.  It makes me smile --> .

[Michael Z]

I wonder if the SPD will be able to regain control of Lower Saxony. Is Sigmar Gabriel running again? Something tells me the SPD are grooming him for the office of Parteivorsitzender...

[Middle-aged Europe]

I wonder if the SPD will be able to regain control of Lower Saxony. Is Sigmar Gabriel running again? Something tells me the SPD are grooming him for the office of Parteivorsitzender...

That's a local election in Lower Saxony. Someone like Sigmar Gabriel isn't running for a town council seat.

[Michael Z]

I wonder if the SPD will be able to regain control of Lower Saxony. Is Sigmar Gabriel running again? Something tells me the SPD are grooming him for the office of Parteivorsitzender...

That's a local election in Lower Saxony. Someone like Sigmar Gabriel isn't running for a town council seat.

Ouch! Sorry, I thought you meant state elections. My bad.

[minionofmidas]

the Bezirksverordnetenversammlung (borough assembly).

I love the length of that name.  It makes me smile --> .

Yeah, if we were English grammar and conventions users we'd make and spell that Versammlung of Bezirks' Verordnete. Which is actually a slightly longer word but looks like it's three words.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Emnid, 08/12):

CDU 31%
SPD 29%
Left.PDS 22%
FDP 7%
Greens 4%
WASG 3%
NPD 3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

[Michael Z]

New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

Looks like Red-Red-Green coalition to me. Is that the current power structure in Berlin already?

[Tender Branson]

New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

Looks like Red-Red-Green coalition to me. Is that the current power structure in Berlin already?

As far as i know, there´s a SPD-Left Party-Coalition in Berlin right now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

Looks like Red-Red-Green coalition to me. Is that the current power structure in Berlin already?

As far as i know, there´s a SPD-Left Party-Coalition in Berlin right now.

That's correct.

And other options aside from a SPD/Left.PDS/Green coalition (more or less in the order of its likelihood) would a be Grand coalition, a SPD/Green/FDP coalition, or a CDU/Green/FDP coalition.



A little political history of Berlin: From 1991 to 2001, Berlin was governed by a Grand coalition under Eberhard Diepgen (CDU). Then, the city government became involved in a major financial scandal, which left Berlin literally bankrupt. Although the SPD was probably not totally innocent either, it was mainly the fault of a a number of leading figures within the CDU.

As a result of the scandal, the coalition broke and through a motion of non-confidence in the Abgeordnetenhaus, a SPD/Green minority government led by Klaus Wowereit (SPD) was installed. Early elections were also called. Although the SPD clearly won the election, the SPD/Greens coalition failed to win a majority.

Then, talks about the formation of a coalition between SPD, Greens, and FDP began. However, after several weeks/months of negotiations, the talks failed and the city-state ended up a with a SPD/PDS coalition instead. Some people from the CDU and FDP claimed that this had been Wowereit's plan in the first place and that the talks between SPD, Greens, and FDP had only served as an alibi for him to form a coalition with the PDS in the end, but no one will ever be able to prove this. Plus, the SPD/Greens and the FDP weren't exactly best friends either and started those negotiations because they had not much choice.

Because of their involvement in the financial scandal, the motion of no-confidence and the subsequent defeat at the polls (1999 election: 40.8%; 2001 election: 23.8%), the CDU was never quite whole again. Since 2001, the party is mostly characterized by the bitter internal fights between different factions and the lack of any clear or strong leader. In fact, the CDU failed to find a convincing candidate to lead their campaign in the upcoming 2006 coalition. Instead they were forced to recruit someone from outside of Berlin: Friedbert Pflüger, currently a secretary of state in the German ministry of defence and Bundestag member representing a constituency in the state of Lower Saxony. In other words: The CDU in Berlin is f****d.

[minionofmidas]

New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

Looks like Red-Red-Green coalition to me. Is that the current power structure in Berlin already?

As far as i know, there´s a SPD-Left Party-Coalition in Berlin right now.

That's correct.

And other options aside from a SPD/Left.PDS/Green coalition (more or less in the order of its likelihood) would a be Grand coalition, a SPD/Green/FDP coalition, or a CDU/Green/FDP coalition.

Not really. Noone in the SPD wants the Grand Coalition back. Noone wants the FDP in either, not really, given the conduct of the Berlin FDP in opposition the last few years.
So the order of probabilities is
SPD-Left (well over 50%. PDS is usually underpolled in Berlin city polls.)
SPD-Left-Green (if there is no majority for SPD-Left)
SPD-Green (possible and not even unlikely if there's a majority for that and it's more than one or three seats wide)
CDU-FDP (from here on down, we're on "very unlikely" territory)
SPD-Greens-FDP
CDU-Greens-FDP
SPD-CDU

Then, talks about the formation of a coalition between SPD, Greens, and FDP began. However, after several weeks/months of negotiations, the talks failed and the city-state ended up a with a SPD/PDS coalition instead. Some people from the CDU and FDP claimed that this had been Wowereit's plan in the first place and that the talks between SPD, Greens, and FDP had only served as an alibi for him to form a coalition with the PDS in the end, but no one will ever be able to prove this.[/quote]Since most people had assumed that this was the most likely outcome - the most reasonable outcome, even - as soon as the results were coming in, I have no trouble believeing it at all. The negotiations with the FDP just served to demonstrate to those on the SPD right that the FDP was not in a state to govern anything, and that there was therefore no alternative.

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Long before 2001, that part.

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[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Forsa, 08/23):

CDU 30%
SPD 28%
Left.PDS 24%
FDP 7%
Greens 4%
NPD 4%
Other parties 3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin poll (Infratest-dimap, 08/24):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 16%
FDP 8%
Other parties 7%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two new polls for Mecklenburg are out...


Infratest-dimap, 08/25
SPD 31%
CDU 30%
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
NPD 4%
Greens 3%

Emnid, 08/25
CDU 31%
SPD 28%
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 7%
NPD 4%
Greens 3%
WASG 2%

The SPD takes the lead in a poll the first time since Feburary. Apparently, the FDP has good chances of returning to the state parliament after 12 years of absence. The NPD's chances of winning seats aren't that bad either.   However, the situation of the Greens and the WASG is more or less hopeless.

Btw, do you want to know what seems to be one of the major issues of the Mecklenberg campaign? "Who is going to pay Bush's barbecue???"
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is Angela Merkel's homestate and she invited Bush to visit her there back in July. Now, the state government of Mecklenburg is arguing with the federal government who is going to pay the bills for Bush's visit.

[Tender Branson]

Btw, do you want to know what seems to be one of the major issues of the Mecklenberg campaign? "Who is going to pay Bush's barbecue???"
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is Angela Merkel's homestate and she invited Bush to visit her there back in July. Now, the state government of Mecklenburg is arguing with the federal government who is going to pay the bills for Bush's visit.

The US should pay it ! *sarcasm ends here* It´s not Merkels or Mecklenburgs fault that this man´s security is that expensive... 

[minionofmidas]

NPD is going to get in. Count on it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NPD is going to get in. Count on it.

Do polls tend to underestimate them?

[minionofmidas]

NPD is going to get in. Count on it.

Do polls tend to underestimate them?

Yes, except where they have a history of being represented ... and due to the MVP state elections being held at the same time as the federal elections in 02, 98, and 94, far right parties don't have much of a track record in state elections there (since turnout was higher than usual in Eastern state elections; and in 2002 the NPD was reeling under the government's failed attempt to ban it).
The NPD does have a base in local elections in the state, though. Quite a strong one. The way their campaign is going, it's reminding a lot of people of Saxony.

On a related note, Government job approval for the Grand Coalition is as bad as the last government's was when it went out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, except where they have a history of being represented ... and due to the MVP state elections being held at the same time as the federal elections in 02, 98, and 94, far right parties don't have much of a track record in state elections there (since turnout was higher than usual in Eastern state elections; and in 2002 the NPD was reeling under the government's failed attempt to ban it).
The NPD does have a base in local elections in the state, though. Quite a strong one. The way their campaign is going, it's reminding a lot of people of Saxony.

Interesting. What parts of MVP are they strongest in?

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Somehow, that fails to suprise me...

[minionofmidas]

Correction. The NPD does not have a strong local elections base, at least not on the district level. (no weaker than here in Hesse, though) They ran in only four districts (East Lower Pomerania, Müritz, Ludwigslust, and city of Stralsund), taking 3.6% of the vote across areas where they stood, or 0.8% across the state. I don't know about municipalities.
Indy slates took a largeish share of the vote, and some of them may be of a far-right nature.
The last local election was held on the same date as the 2004 Euros.