German state and local elections, September 2006

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Berlin poll (Emnid, 08/27):

SPD 33%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 9%
WASG 3%

[minionofmidas]

In other news, Gerhard Grandke won't run for state PM of Hessen in 2008. So now it's probably Andrea Ypsilanti or Jürgen Walter, neither of whom exactly has high name recognition.

[minionofmidas]

Wahlomat for Berlin

Click on the graphic at top right (the one that says Wahlomat Berlin), then "start".
Buttons are, left to right, "agree", "neutral", "do not agree". The fourth button makes the question move to the end of the questionnaire, I think.

Questions translations:
"Shop opening hours in Berlin should be unrestricted Monday to Saturday".
"The BVG [public transport provider] should remain completely owned by the State of Berlin."
"Graffiti sprayers should be pursued intensively by police."
"All Berlin primary schools should be open during the afternoon as well."
"'Head' grades (e.g. for 'conduct', 'industriousness') should be reintroduced."
"Automatic promotion should be introduced in Berlin schools."
"Berlin city motorways should be expanded further."
"Diesel cars without soot filter should be banned from the inner city area."
"Barge traffic in Berlin should be expanded."
"The trade tax rate should be increased."
"The city-owned housing corporations should be sold."
"Hard drugs should be given to the heavily addicted for free, in a controlled environment."
"The state government should push for an abolition of the MAE scheme (so called one Euro jobs)."
"Students should be able to opt-out of the newly introduced compulsory ethics classes by taking religion classes instead."
"Berlin universities should remain free of fees fr those who do not yet have a uni degree."
"The expansion of the subway network should have priority over the expansion of the streetcar network."
"More roads should be turned into cycling routes". (This is what it literally says. I'm nto sue if that is literally what they meant, though.)
"The state-owned hospital company, Vivantes, should be wholly privatized."
"There should be equal numbers of men and women in the next Berlin city government."
"Compulsory preschool classes should be introduced for children without sufficient German skills."
"Berlin should push for a national smoking ban in pubs and restaurants."
"All policemen should be required to wear badges with their name or an identifying number."
"The state should support private schools more."
"Parents who repeatedly refuse help by the CPS should be punishable with cuts in welfare payments."
"There should be a legal claim for crèche places for under 3-year olds."
"The threepartite school system of Hauptschule, Realschule and Gymnasium should be preserved."
"More public spaces should be made available to independent theater companies for free."
"Berlin cops should be allowed to shoot to kill as a last resort in danger situations."
"District mayors should be directly elected."
"Tempelhof airport should remain in use alongside the large Schönefeld (Berlin-Brandenburg International) airport." (What about Tegel airport? )

[I notice that lots of these questions are too vague, and lots are easily misunderstood without knowing the legal and societal framework within which the questions will have to be resolved, but nvm all that. ]

After that you get to a screen with two buttons. Right button gives you the unweighted results, left button allows to weight he results by checking all those questions that you find especially important. To get to the results from that, click "Ergebnis anzeigen" in the lower righthand corner.

My result:
1) WASG
2) Greens         
smallest gap here
3) Left.PDS       
largest gap here
4) SPD
5) FDP
6) CDU

[Tender Branson]

Allthough i never had anything to do with Berlin politics, except for the fact that i sometimes follow german elections, i took the test and the results were:

1) FDP - 63,3%
2) CDU - 61,7%
3) SPD - 46,7%
4) Greens - 45%
5) Left Party - 43,3%
6) WASG - 43,3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Took this test a while ago. Retook it now... the results haven't change much, but I'm still not sure whether this makes sense.

1) SPD / FDP - 56.7% each
2) CDU - 48.3%
3) WASG - 46.7%
4) Left.PDS - 36.7%
5) Greens - 35%


But as Lewis indicated, you probably have to be an in-depth expert of the political and financial situation in Berlin to understand this test.

[Bacon King]

There were about seven questions i answered 'neutral' on, just because I had no idea what they were talking about.

[Tender Branson]

There were about seven questions i answered 'neutral' on, just because I had no idea what they were talking about.

Looks exactly like my result

[Colin]

FDP 68,3%
SPD 55%
CDU 53,3%
DIE LINKE.PDS 31,7%
WASG 31,7%
BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN 30%


Odd that the SPD came in second for me. I was expecting CDU to hold the number 2 spot. FDP is still at the top of course.

[CO-OWL]

NPD is going to get in. Count on it.

New poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Infratest, 09/01):

CDU 31%
SPD 30%
Left.PDS 21%
FDP 6%
Green 4%
NPD 6%
other 2%

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Mecklenburg poll (Infratest-dimap, 09/07):

SPD 31%
CDU 30%
Left.PDS 20%
FDP 7%
NPD 6%
Greens 4%


Looks like a very close race between SPD and CDU. The SPD will win though simply because of their stronger coalition partner. Actually, the only remaining chance of the CDU to win this thing is a very strong NPD result, which could prevent another SPD/PDS majority and lead to a Grand coalition... for the very high price of having the NPD sit in the state parliament.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Berlin poll (Infratest-dimap, 09/07):

SPD 33%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 15%
Greens 14%
FDP 7%
WASG 3%

[Michael Z]

Oooh. A quiz. How could I miss this one?



Not exactly surprising.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And here's a hell of a lot new poll data for both state elections...




Berlin (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 09/08)

SPD 32%
CDU 22%
Left.PDS 17%
Greens 13%
FDP 8%
Other parties 8%


Number of undecided voters: 46%

Who should become mayor?:
Klaus Wowereit (SPD) 64%
Friedbert Pflüger (CDU) 18%

Coalition preferences:
SPD/CDU 34%
SPD/Greens 33%
SPD/Left.PDS 24%




Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 09/08)

CDU 33%
SPD 29%
Left.PDS 18%
FDP 7%
NPD 7%
Greens 4%
Other parties 2%


Number of undecided voters: 43%

Who should become premier?:
Harald Ringstorff (SPD) 49%
Jürgen Seidel (CDU) 34%

Coalition preferences:
SPD/CDU 61%
SPD/Left.PDS 29%

[Middle-aged Europe]

And in Lower Saxony the local elections will be held this sunday.


The last state-wide poll in Lower Saxony showed the following numbers... it's actually a poll for the state parliament, but maybe also a indicator for the local elections (Infratest-dimap, 08/30):

CDU 40%
SPD 36%
Greens 9%
FDP 8%
Left.PDS 4%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin (Forsa, 09/09)

SPD 31%
CDU 20%
Left.PDS 17%
Greens 14%
FDP 8%
Other parties 10%



Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Emnid, 09/08)

CDU 31%
SPD 29%
Left.PDS 21%
FDP 7%
NPD 7%
Greens 3%
WASG 1%
Other parties 1%

[Tender Branson]

Damn, the Nazis at 7% ? Hopefully their campaign implodes and they won´t come into the state parliament.

Yippi, i´m a YaBB God now

BTW what is a YaBB God ?

[Colin]

Damn, the Nazis at 7% ? Hopefully their campaign implodes and they won´t come into the state parliament.

Yippi, i´m a YaBB God now

BTW what is a YaBB God ?

They wont. They've gotten into state parliament before. Those Easterns must like totalitarianism.

Well YaBB is a forum code that was used on this forum before phpbb and the term YaBB God wasn't changed when we changed formats.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Majority/coalition summary (incumbent coalition vs. opposition parties who will make it into the parliament):



Berlin

Infratest
SPD + Left.PDS = 48%
CDU + Greens + FDP = 42%

FGW
SPD + Left.PDS = 49%
CDU + Greens + FDP = 43%

Forsa
SPD + Left.PDS = 48%
CDU + Greens + FDP = 42%

Prediction: Looks like a almost certain re-election for Klaus Wowereit's SPD/PDS coalition.



Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Infratest
SPD + Left.PDS = 51%
CDU + FDP + NPD = 43%

Emnid
SPD + Left.PDS = 50%
CDU + FDP + NPD = 45%

FGW
SPD + Left.PDS = 47%
CDU + FDP + NPD = 47%

Prediction: Opinion polls favor the SPD/PDS coalition here too. However, FGW's projected tossup indicates that it could become a very close race in the final days of the campaign. It all depends on how strong the NPD will be. In the case that SPD+PDS will not win a majority again, a Grand coalition is to be expected.

Btw, a Grand coalition in Mecklenburg would result in a two-third majority for Angela Merkel's coalition in the Bundesrat (in the Bundestag they already have one). Not that it would matter much, since CDU and SPD can't agree on anything anyway. But they wouldn't have to ask the FDP anymore, if they're planning to amend the constitution in the future.

[Tender Branson]

Damn, the Nazis at 7% ? Hopefully their campaign implodes and they won´t come into the state parliament.

Yippi, i´m a YaBB God now

BTW what is a YaBB God ?

They wont. They've gotten into state parliament before. Those Easterns must like totalitarianism.

Well YaBB is a forum code that was used on this forum before phpbb and the term YaBB God wasn't changed when we changed formats.

Yeah of course its a forum code that you have more than 500 posts but for what stands YaBB ? Do you probably know ?

There´s also a new Bavaria poll. The next state elections are in 2008.

CSU: 58%
SPD: 16%
Greens: 10%
FDP: 6%
Left: 3%
Others: 7%

Does any of the Germans in here know if Stoiber is leaving before 2008 or after the elections ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Those Easterns must like totalitarianism.

No, they just experienced 12 years under Nazism, 40 years under communism and 15 years under a democracy with very high unemployment rates of about 20%, which led many of them to the conclusion that democracy sucks and the past was better after all.

[Colin]

Those Easterns must like totalitarianism.

No, they just experienced 12 years under Nazism, 40 years under communism and 15 years under a democracy with very high unemployment rates of about 20%, which led many of them to the conclusion that democracy sucks and the past was better after all.

I was being facetious. I, of course, now that is the reason why NPD and PDS do so well in the East, just like how similar parties do well in the rest of Eastern Europe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Does any of the Germans in here know if Stoiber is leaving before 2008 or after the elections ?

Uh, no idea. From my experience, those CSU people are pretty submissive guys, who bow down to their party's leadership at any opportunity.  So, if Stoiber wants to run again, they probably will let him. But I assume 2008 will be the last election he will run and then retire in the middle of the next term.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Damn, the Nazis at 7% ? Hopefully their campaign implodes and they won´t come into the state parliament.

7% is probably more the NPD's minimum than the NPD's maximum.

I was being facetious. I, of course, now that is the reason why NPD and PDS do so well in the East, just like how similar parties do well in the rest of Eastern Europe.

Being from the east myself, I have to say that I can't understand people who vote for them. Even if they're from East Germany, even if they were permanently unemployed for the last 15 years, even if they think that all other parties are horrible and even if they think that democracy sucks, they should notice that NPD consists of people who are not very intelligent.

They don't even look very intelligent. Everyone who has seen Holger Apfel (the NPD leader in Saxony) only a single time knows what I'm talking about. And their neither charismatic nor are they particularly articulate. This is often seen as the main reason why now right-wing extremist could establish itself on federal level after WWII: The lack of any charismatic or remotely intelligent leaders. The PDS has at least some pretty awesome speakers and debaters, who also know from their own experience how a university looks from the inside.

So, the only explanation is that NPD voters simply don't give a fu** about anything and are only trying to piss off the major parties by a protest vote. And in that case I would actually prefer that they beome really apathetic and stay home, instead of voting NPD.

[minionofmidas]

Damn, the Nazis at 7% ? Hopefully their campaign implodes and they won´t come into the state parliament.

Yippi, i´m a YaBB God now

BTW what is a YaBB God ?

They wont. They've gotten into state parliament before. Those Easterns must like totalitarianism.

Well YaBB is a forum code that was used on this forum before phpbb and the term YaBB God wasn't changed when we changed formats.

Yeah of course its a forum code that you have more than 500 posts but for what stands YaBB ? Do you probably know ?

Yet another Bulletin Board.

[Tender Branson]

Lower Saxony Results from the Community Elections yesterday:

CDU: 41,3% (-1,3%)
SPD: 36,6% (-2,0%)
Greens: 7,8% (+1,1%)
FDP: 6,7% (+0,5%)