What now for Dean?

[Michael Z]

It's possibly too early to tell, but let's face it, five days ago anything other than a Dean victory in IA would have been a massive shock. So what happened? Has the bubble burst? And how will Dean's recent kamikaze oratory (let's face it, you can't really call that a speech) affect his chances in NH?

Perhaps Dean will recover, perhaps he won't. Either way, these primaries are set to be a lot closer, and ultimately more exciting, than many would have thought.

[Gustaf]

If Kerry moves ahead in polls, but Dean rebounds and manages to squeak it out, or if Dean for some reason picks up in polls and wins clearly in NH, he's still in it. If he loses it's over, and in only wins barely it will most likely be over after Feb 3rd.

[NHPolitico]

It's possibly too early to tell, but let's face it, five days ago anything other than a Dean victory in IA would have been a massive shock. So what happened? Has the bubble burst? And how will Dean's recent kamikaze oratory (let's face it, you can't really call that a speech) affect his chances in NH?

Perhaps Dean will recover, perhaps he won't. Either way, these primaries are set to be a lot closer, and ultimately more exciting, than many would have thought.

New Hampshire voters are very educated. They all know about his verbal cliff dive (even if the only coverage was on the news-- which it's not, but instead a pop culture moment worthy of inclusion on a show on VH1). Dean will get about 20% of the vote. Anyone else who gets higher than that will beat him. So, he could be in second or third or whatever depending on how many are over 20% and by how much.

[YRABNNRM]

Im pretty sure after that speech last night Deans gonna be working for the WWE

[Gustaf]

It's possibly too early to tell, but let's face it, five days ago anything other than a Dean victory in IA would have been a massive shock. So what happened? Has the bubble burst? And how will Dean's recent kamikaze oratory (let's face it, you can't really call that a speech) affect his chances in NH?

Perhaps Dean will recover, perhaps he won't. Either way, these primaries are set to be a lot closer, and ultimately more exciting, than many would have thought.

New Hampshire voters are very educated. They all know about his verbal cliff dive (even if the only coverage was on the news-- which it's not, but instead a pop culture moment worthy of inclusion on a show on VH1). Dean will get about 20% of the vote. Anyone else who gets higher than that will beat him. So, he could be in second or third or whatever depending on how many are over 20% and by how much.

Kerry and Edwards will surge. The last poll, taken before the Iowa results came, showed Kerry in second place with 20%, Dean at 28%.

[Michael Z]

From Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=4169880

Dean Tones Down 'Red Meat' Rhetoric After Iowa Loss
Tue January 20, 2004 02:15 PM ET
By Patricia Wilson

MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Presidential hopeful Howard Dean on Tuesday toned down his "red meat" rhetoric, hoping to recoup a stunning loss in Iowa with a more subdued campaign in New Hampshire in the Democratic battle to challenge President Bush in November's U.S. election.

After coming a distant third in Iowa behind U.S. Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina, Dean seemed to be searching for the right tone as he touted his own record of balancing budgets and providing health care as governor of Vermont and criticized Bush's record as president.

"Today, I am going to give a different kind of speech," Dean told supporters in Manchester. "Those of you who came here intending to be lifted by ... a lot of red meat rhetoric are going to be a little disappointed."

Dean was thrown off balance by his poor showing in Monday's Iowa caucuses, the first contest in the state-by-state race to select a Democratic candidate, shattering an aura of inevitability he had created in previous months.

But he still cannot be counted out. He has raised more money than his opponents, has a strong organization in New Hampshire -- which holds its primary vote next Tuesday -- and his supporters are renowned for fighting back.

Iowans apparently rejected Dean's hard-edged anti-Iraq war rhetoric and his anti-establishment message in favor of two Washington insiders. Surveys showed voters were more concerned with jobs and health care than the Iraq war.

They also focused on electability and which Democrat might have the best chance of beating Bush on Nov. 2. Dean's bluntness and tendency to speak his mind have tripped him up in recent weeks, allowing opponents to paint him as gaffe-prone and not ready for the White House.

His fire can translate as anger. On Monday night, he literally shouted out his speech to supporters in Iowa, at times reaching screaming pitch as he vowed to fight on. He has said he would contest the Democratic presidential nomination until June 8, the day of the last primaries.

In Manchester on Tuesday, he barely raised his voice as he attacked Bush for going to war with Iraq, accusing him of losing 3 million jobs, failing to provide health insurance to all Americans and running up huge deficits.

Dean did not mention his rivals by name, but did say they had joined him in opposing the Iraq war, even if they had "a little trouble explaining their position."

"The campaign's changed a lot and other Democrats are standing up and speaking their piece," he said.

Dean holds a slim lead over Kerry and retired Gen. Wesley Clark in polls for the New Hampshire primary. He has led the field in national surveys of Democratic voters.

"I'm not the front-runner anymore," Dean told supporters at a predawn rally in Portsmouth on Tuesday, declaring himself the underdog.

Dean lost in Iowa despite high-powered endorsements from former Vice President Al Gore, former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley and Iowa's most popular politician, Sen. Tom Harkin. On Sunday, he received a strong signal of support from former President Jimmy Carter but not an official endorsement.

"You get three tickets out of Iowa," said Dean's campaign manager, Joe Trippi. "We got one of them. It's not the one I would have wanted but I'll take it." Many analysts believe only the top three in Iowa have a chance of winning the nomination.

Dean, whose use of the Internet to raise $40 million and attract new supporters helped propel him to the top of the polls late last year, said he had been a "pin cushion" for his rivals and the media because of his front-runner status.

Dean canceled tentative plans to fly home to Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday, choosing instead to remain in New Hampshire and campaign.  

© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

[Gustaf]

It will be hard for Dean to start to reshape like this. It will hurt the image of the straight-shooting rebel and make him another politician.

[Justin]

There have been a couple rumors going around. I'm not sure if these are true. From what I've heard is that If Dean does not get the nomination he may run as a third party candidate.

[© tweed]

There have been a couple rumors going around. I'm not sure if these are true. From what I've heard is that If Dean does not get the nomination he may run as a third party candidate.

That has been circulating around the forum...but it isn't going to happen.  Dean doesn't want to secre Bush's re-election.

[YRABNNRM]

There have been a couple rumors going around. I'm not sure if these are true. From what I've heard is that If Dean does not get the nomination he may run as a third party candidate.

I doubt it but I do believe his hardcore supporters would vote 3rd party if he wasn't elected. The nominee might be too washington-establishment for them.

[NHPolitico]

Im pretty sure after that speech last night Deans gonna be working for the WWE

Does Dean have 24 inch pythons and a vicious leg drop move?

[Justin]

That has been circulating around the forum...but it isn't going to happen.  Dean doesn't want to secre Bush's re-election.

I don't know. He has a large voter base that could possibly give him electoral votes in the general election. If he does fail to get the nomination and if he ran with the Green Party, he could easily get them the Federal Funding they need to establish themselves.

[YRABNNRM]

Im pretty sure after that speech last night Deans gonna be working for the WWE

Does Dean have 24 inch pythons and a vicious leg drop move?

Mine as well.

I was expecting him to yell "WHAT YOU GONNA DO WHEN DEAN-A-MANIA RUNS WILD ON YOU, KERRY?".

[M]

NEW YORK!!! NORTH DAKOTA!!! MICHIGAN!!! PENNSYLVANIA!!! OHIO!!! AND TEXAS!!! AND ARKANSAS!!! AND NORTH CAROLINA!!! THEN TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE Yeeheehaaaaa!!!!

I have never before heard Lex Luthor-style crazy evil laughter in politics. This was a first for me.

I think a lot of Deaniacs are starting to realize now that they;ve been following a Golden Calf, a False Messiah; what Simon and Garfunkel might call a "neon god". It must be like awakening from a dark dream last night- a lot of people must've turned on their screeens and said "we were following that raving lunatic???"

[© tweed]

Dean's speech was scary last night.  Tucker Carlson said that he "frightened little children."

[Gustaf]

NEW YORK!!! NORTH DAKOTA!!! MICHIGAN!!! PENNSYLVANIA!!! OHIO!!! AND TEXAS!!! AND ARKANSAS!!! AND NORTH CAROLINA!!! THEN TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE Yeeheehaaaaa!!!!

I have never before heard Lex Luthor-style crazy evil laughter in politics. This was a first for me.

I think a lot of Deaniacs are starting to realize now that they;ve been following a Golden Calf, a False Messiah; what Simon and Garfunkel might call a "neon god". It must be like awakening from a dark dream last night- a lot of people must've turned on their screeens and said "we were following that raving lunatic???"

I still haven't seen the speech!

[YRABNNRM]

Is it just me or did he try to match the rhyming states?

[© tweed]

Believe me, you don't want to.

[YRABNNRM]

NEW YORK!!! NORTH DAKOTA!!! MICHIGAN!!! PENNSYLVANIA!!! OHIO!!! AND TEXAS!!! AND ARKANSAS!!! AND NORTH CAROLINA!!! THEN TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE Yeeheehaaaaa!!!!

I have never before heard Lex Luthor-style crazy evil laughter in politics. This was a first for me.

I think a lot of Deaniacs are starting to realize now that they;ve been following a Golden Calf, a False Messiah; what Simon and Garfunkel might call a "neon god". It must be like awakening from a dark dream last night- a lot of people must've turned on their screeens and said "we were following that raving lunatic???"

I still haven't seen the speech!

You're missing out. I was, well still am convinced he was drunk.

[© tweed]

Hemay have been drunk, now that I think of it.

[Demrepdan]

Hemay have been drunk, now that I think of it.

I bet he WAS drunk. I bet as soon as he looked at the final results..and saw he was in third place..he said...."oh god.....I stayed in this cold state, with nothing but corn..and shook the hands of FAT people for HOURS on end...for NOTHING!! WHY GOD?! WHY?!!!"

GLUG GLUG

A few hours later...he feels even more "liberal" thanks to the booze. And he is trying to see if he can remember all the states while he is drunk.

"Lets see, theres New Hampshire...Ohidaho...no no!! OHIO! HA HA HA...and Mexico...and I mean New Mexico...and then we gotta get the votes from the White House too!!! YEEEHA!!!"

[© tweed]

Hemay have been drunk, now that I think of it.

I bet he WAS drunk. I bet as soon as he looked at the final results..and saw he was in third place..he said...."oh god.....I stayed in this cold state, with nothing but corn..and shook the hands of FAT people for HOURS on end...for NOTHING!! WHY GOD?! WHY?!!!"

GLUG GLUG

A few hours later...he feels even more "liberal" thanks to the booze. And he is trying to see if he can remember all the states while he is drunk.

"Lets see, theres New Hampshire...Ohidaho...no no!! OHIO! HA HA HA...and Mexico...and I mean New Mexico...and then we gotta get the votes from the White House too!!! YEEEHA!!!"

An educated theory from DRD.

[NHPolitico]

Dean's speech was scary last night.  Tucker Carlson said that he "frightened little children."

My 3 YO daughter has a US state puzzle. She saw Dean and said why is that man talking about my puzzle?

[NHPolitico]

NEW YORK!!! NORTH DAKOTA!!! MICHIGAN!!! PENNSYLVANIA!!! OHIO!!! AND TEXAS!!! AND ARKANSAS!!! AND NORTH CAROLINA!!! THEN TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE Yeeheehaaaaa!!!!

I have never before heard Lex Luthor-style crazy evil laughter in politics. This was a first for me.

I think a lot of Deaniacs are starting to realize now that they;ve been following a Golden Calf, a False Messiah; what Simon and Garfunkel might call a "neon god". It must be like awakening from a dark dream last night- a lot of people must've turned on their screeens and said "we were following that raving lunatic???"

I still haven't seen the speech!

Ignore Miamiu1027. You do want to see it. It's hilarious. It's why we all love reality TV.

[© tweed]

Dean's speech was scary last night.  Tucker Carlson said that he "frightened little children."

My 3 YO daughter has a US state puzzle. She saw Dean and said why is that man talking about my puzzle?

 LOL...