2009/10 General Election probabilities

[Јas]

What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?

PART I

1.Labour Majority
This far out, who can say. I suspect that Labour will still be in office, but what do I know? About 45%

2.Labour Minority
20%

3.Conservative Minority
20%

4.Conservative Majority
Doable, but not likely. 15%

5.Liberal Democrats largest party
Hugely unlikely. Would require quite the confluence of events. Less than 1%.

6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader
More likely than anyone else at the moment but far from a lock. Often times the favourite just doesn't win. 65%

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader
See above. 35%

8.BNP pick up one seat
Seems fairly unlikely. Would require some fairly abnormal intervening events. In and around 1%.

9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats
I don't see them getting one in normal circumstances, so getting a handful may be about as likely as any one in particular. Less than 1%

10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats
Chances of a very serious impact outisde of very specific geographic areas, very unlikely. Much less than 1%

11. Greens pick up a seat
All the major parties seem to be going 'green'. In the absence of a chance in the voting system, or maybe a very significant environmental disaster (a major incident at Sellafield or somesuch) this is not something I expect to see. About 1%.

12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election
I can't think of any scenario whereby this would happen in this timeframe. Very close to 0%.

[Јas]

11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post...

Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive.

[Јas]

11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post...

Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive.

You're from Monaghan. That is in northern Ireland.

(It's constantly amazes me how many people over here believe that.)