2009/10 General Election probabilities

[Harry Hayfield]

What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?

PART I

1.Labour Majority: Low (less than 25%)

2.Labour Minority: Moderate (50%)

3.Conservative Minority: Low (less than 25%)

4.Conservative Majority: Minute (less than 5%)

5.Liberal Democrats largest party: Infinestial (less than 0.001%)

6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader: High (85%)

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader: Low (15%)

8.BNP pick up one seat: Moderate (50%)

9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats: Low (25%)

10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats: Very Low (5%)

11. Greens pick up a seat: Moderate (50%)

12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election: Moderate (50%)

 

[Harry Hayfield]

11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post, I was wondering if you were aware of the following result from Brighton, Pavillion?

Lab 36%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 21% Ind 0%, UKIP 1%, Others 1%

[Harry Hayfield]

What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?

Low = 0 - 25% chance, Moderate = 26 - 50%, High = 51% - 75% chance, Likely: 76 - 100%
PART I

1.Labour Majority Low
2.Labour Minority Moderate
3.Conservative Minority High
4.Conservative Majority Likely
5.Liberal Democrats largest party Low
6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader Moderate
7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader Moderate
8.BNP pick up one seat Moderate
9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats Low
10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats Low
11. Greens pick up a seat High
12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election Low