2009/10 General Election probabilities

[minionofmidas]

1.Labour Majority
Highish (less than 50%)
2.Labour Minority
Less than option 1.
3.Conservative Minority
Less than option 1.
4.Conservative Majority
Less than option 1. All of them distinctly possible o/c.
5.Liberal Democrats largest party
Exceedingly unlikely
6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader
Exceedingly likely
7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader
see above, silly
8.BNP pick up one seat
Unlikely, possible
9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats
Very unlikely, just about possible
10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats
Exceedingly unlikely
11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible
12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election
Exceedingly unlikely
 

[minionofmidas]

11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post, I was wondering if you were aware of the following result from Brighton, Pavillion?

Lab 36%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 21% Ind 0%, UKIP 1%, Others 1%

Yes. I was rooting for Greens to take second place - I knew the talk about them possibly taking the seat right away in 2005 was rubbish.

[minionofmidas]

1.Labour Majority 60%

2.Labour Minority50%

3.Conservative Minority40%

4.Conservative Majority20%

5.Liberal Democrats largest party0%

Shouldn't these five sum to 100% (or less, if you believe there's an outside chance some other party wins ), like these do:

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[minionofmidas]

11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post...

Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive.

You're from Monaghan. That is in northern Ireland.

[minionofmidas]

A Labour majority is less likely now than it was in 2006. Otherwise, I stand by my earlier estimates.