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Author Topic: Who do yall think would win in this scenario?  (Read 1157 times)
auburntiger
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« on: August 11, 2006, 12:57:53 pm »
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John McCain / Mike Huckabee vs. Mark Warner / Russ Feingold??



I think it would be a very interesting race, though not a north/south flip.
Warner could win AR if it weren't for Huckabee.
McCain could win WI if it weren't for Feingold.

All the other red/blue states would fall into place 2000 and 2004 style except for a few: I think McCain can take NH in this scenario and possibly OR. 
Iowa I wasn't sure...flip a coin I guess.

Also, CO would be a lock for McCain, and so would the rest of the southwest.
I don't think McCain could ger any northeastern state besides NH.

266 Warner, 265 McCain. how would Iowa vote?
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2006, 01:04:11 pm »
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John McCain / Mike Huckabee vs. Mark Warner / Russ Feingold??



I think it would be a very interesting race, though not a north/south flip.
Warner could win AR if it weren't for Huckabee.
McCain could win WI if it weren't for Feingold.

All the other red/blue states would fall into place 2000 and 2004 style except for a few: I think McCain can take NH in this scenario and possibly OR. 
Iowa I wasn't sure...flip a coin I guess.

Also, CO would be a lock for McCain, and so would the rest of the southwest.
I don't think McCain could ger any northeastern state besides NH.

266 Warner, 265 McCain. how would Iowa vote?

Considering people vote for the top of the ticket rather than for the bottom of the ticket, I would say Mark Warner would have the better chance of winning.  With your map, I would keep everything the same and move Iowa to the Democrats due to its northeast border with Wisconsin.  Like you said, though, Iowa could flip either way.
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Reignman
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2006, 01:15:13 pm »
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That looks about right.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2006, 02:37:23 pm »
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John McCain / Mike Huckabee vs. Mark Warner / Russ Feingold??



I think it would be a very interesting race, though not a north/south flip.
Warner could win AR if it weren't for Huckabee.
McCain could win WI if it weren't for Feingold.

All the other red/blue states would fall into place 2000 and 2004 style except for a few: I think McCain can take NH in this scenario and possibly OR. 
Iowa I wasn't sure...flip a coin I guess.

Also, CO would be a lock for McCain, and so would the rest of the southwest.
I don't think McCain could ger any northeastern state besides NH.

266 Warner, 265 McCain. how would Iowa vote?

Considering people vote for the top of the ticket rather than for the bottom of the ticket, I would say Mark Warner would have the better chance of winning.  With your map, I would keep everything the same and move Iowa to the Democrats due to its northeast border with Wisconsin.  Like you said, though, Iowa could flip either way.

Because both Warner and McCain have crossover appeal, this factor will likely cancel itself out, and most states will still probably vote the way they've been voting probably 2000, 2004 style.



90% = not in play
70% = longshot, but not impossible for the other party to take
50% = up for grabs, but will lean to one party
30% = tossups, but with my gut feeling

I had WI and AR aas tossups because you were talking about voting for the top of the ticket. I may have overestimated MO or underestimated WV.

It all really depends on the most important issues to the voters at the given time. Given the right conditions, we could see either candidate landslide.
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2006, 03:27:30 pm »
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Iowa votes for McCain, and gives him the victory, 272/266.

The decision is made on McCain's greater experience, domestically, internationally, and national security wise.

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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2006, 07:55:46 pm »
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I agree with the first map in this thread except flip New Hampshire to Warner and West Virginia to McCain.
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2006, 08:03:32 pm »
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With Russ Feingold as a running-mate, I doubt even Mark Warner would win Virginia or West Virginia, especially considering the impressive calibre of the opposing ticket. 
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2006, 08:06:46 pm »
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With Russ Feingold as a running-mate, I doubt even Mark Warner would win Virginia or West Virginia, especially considering the impressive calibre of the opposing ticket. 

Warner's very popular in Virginia, but I assume you know that.  You're just displaying your hatred for Feingold, but the thing about Feingold is that the liberal tag won't stick on him as well as it does on somebody like John Kerry.  He's more fiery.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2006, 09:12:40 pm »
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I agree with the first map in this thread except flip New Hampshire to Warner and West Virginia to McCain.

Correct me if I'm wrong. NH and WV are mirror images of each other... WV being Dem completely on the state and local levels, and NH being Rep. on the state and local levels (with exception to the governor).

Honestly, I don't think WV is the strong GOP hold everyone says it is now, just like I don't think NH is a strong DEM hold either. I think Warner would easily carry the state. I tihnk WV is more likely to go Warner than NH is likely to go McCain, but keep in mind McCain won NH in the primary against W. I don't see why he couldn't carry it in a general election. AND W won NH in 2000, which means it could still go either way. But McCain and/or Guliani are the only Republicans who could carry NH.

Also, I don't see why Feingold would keep Warner from carrying his home state. If anything, he'll probably help yall turn out more liberal voters which will help you in the general.
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2006, 09:35:19 pm »
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Also, I don't see why Feingold would keep Warner from carrying his home state. If anything, he'll probably help yall turn out more liberal voters which will help you in the general.

As well as turning off those voters in the center who would otherwise consider voting for them. 
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2006, 02:10:41 am »
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My map:



Warner/Feingold gets Iowa and carries Virginia, while McCain/Huckabee gets NH and Michigan, which won´t vote for the winner like in 1976. WV will be decided by fewer than 1000 votes, like NM in 2000.

All in all:

Warner/Feingold (it would be great if this ticket comes in 2008) - 271
McCain/Huckabee - 267
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auburntiger
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2006, 10:07:26 am »
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My map:



Warner/Feingold gets Iowa and carries Virginia, while McCain/Huckabee gets NH and Michigan, which won´t vote for the winner like in 1976. WV will be decided by fewer than 1000 votes, like NM in 2000.

All in all:

Warner/Feingold (it would be great if this ticket comes in 2008) - 271
McCain/Huckabee - 267


why would McCain win MI and not OH?? Why would Warner do worse than Kerry even against McCain? Also, I still think WV would go to Warner, maybe b/c of adjacent state appeal?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2006, 12:32:15 pm »
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Everybody's overestimating the impact made by a vice presidential selection.  The last VP choice to really make an impact on the results was LBJ 46 years ago.  Feingold wouldn't help or hurt Warner all that much.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2006, 12:42:10 am »
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My map:



Warner/Feingold gets Iowa and carries Virginia, while McCain/Huckabee gets NH and Michigan, which won´t vote for the winner like in 1976. WV will be decided by fewer than 1000 votes, like NM in 2000.

All in all:

Warner/Feingold (it would be great if this ticket comes in 2008) - 271
McCain/Huckabee - 267


why would McCain win MI and not OH?? Why would Warner do worse than Kerry even against McCain? Also, I still think WV would go to Warner, maybe b/c of adjacent state appeal?

Sure, it can be the other way round, Warner getting MI and WV and McCain get´s Ohio. Maybe Warner get´s all 3, i dunno, depends on the campaign in 2 years.
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« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2006, 09:27:39 am »
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Everybody's overestimating the impact made by a vice presidential selection.  The last VP choice to really make an impact on the results was LBJ 46 years ago.  Feingold wouldn't help or hurt Warner all that much.
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