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| | |-+  Geographic political divides in countries
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Author Topic: Geographic political divides in countries  (Read 6216 times)
YoMartin
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« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2006, 07:24:19 pm »
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Electoral behavior is guided in Argentina basically by income and education (which, of course, are also related): as these get higher, the lower the tendency to vote peronist, and viceversa. So major cities are generally non-peronist, while their (poorer) suburbs and smaller cities are more peronist.

The non-peronist vote is not uniform, either. The richer areas in big cities go for center-right non-peronist options, but they generally loose to center-left non-peronists supported by the middle class. The three main cities (Buenos Aires, Rosario, and to a lesser extent, Córdoba) usually choose this last type of mayors.

40% of the national vote is concentrated in Buenos Aires and its suburbs, so presidential elections are mostly decided there. In the city peronists rarely get over 25%/30% of the vote, but their vote share increases as the distance from the city grows: in the poorer suburbs they could get over 65%/70%.
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« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2006, 12:44:38 am »
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Kirchner was the gobernador of Santa Cruz, wasn't he? Geez that place needs work. Still, it's beautiful.

Where abouts do you live? I presume BsAs, which is a pretty cool place, although I never left the Capital federal. My favourite major city in Argentina was Cordoba, though; my least favourite Corrientes.
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YoMartin
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« Reply #27 on: September 27, 2006, 08:22:59 pm »
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Kirchner was the gobernador of Santa Cruz, wasn't he? Geez that place needs work. Still, it's beautiful.

Where abouts do you live? I presume BsAs, which is a pretty cool place, although I never left the Capital federal. My favourite major city in Argentina was Cordoba, though; my least favourite Corrientes.

Well, Santa Cruz is just fine economically. I think only around 200.000 people live there and they have plenty of oil, so... I think unemployment is less than 4%, lowest in the country. Of course, I canīt imagine myself living in such a boring (and freezing cold) place...

Thatīs right, I live in Buenos Aires. ŋCordoba? ŋReally? As for major cities Iīd say Rosario, Mendoza or Salta are cooler.
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« Reply #28 on: September 28, 2006, 03:24:56 am »
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Didn't go to Salta, didn't like Mendoza (open sewers=major negative).

Rosario was pretty funky. I was there twice; the first time for a week, the second for two days. It's got a nice CBD/centro to walk around, and the river is pretty cool; I was particularly enarmoured with my day sitting on the beach on the river, with a plane overhead constantly repeating an ad for "New Yorrrrk Shopping-el mejoooorrrr de Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.....New Yorrrrk Shopping...."

The Monument to the Flag is the most impressive phallic symbol i've ever seen, as well, although el obelisco comes close. I find the fact that you have a massive tower devoted to a flag, that has no flag flying on top of as oddly comforting...that said, the plaza and surrounding buildings were pasted with flags, possibly because of the World Cup.

Anyway, I really liked the Riverside, and I was staying in an area of Rosario known as 'Barrio Pichincha' which was a bit out of town (40 minutes walk along the river, maybe 30 minutes direct) which was a bit run down, but still pretty nice. I discovered you could buy a 2-bedroom house there for $30,000 pesos, which is a pretty attractive price for me...that's about $10,000 USD which is a car over here :S

Anyway, Rosario was pretty cool, and I could def. live there, but it didn't really have any sizzle. It was plain, comfortable and friendly, but Cordoba was laid back and crazy, hectic and slow...Cordoba is a kind of place where everything is in the right-now, and as a tourist that's a great thing. Maybe as a resident Cordoba would suck, but it's a great place to visit.
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YoMartin
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« Reply #29 on: September 28, 2006, 06:53:48 pm »
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I hadnīt realized our two main cities have big phallic symbols as monuments. Itīs.... a bit disturbing...

Not because Iīm porteņo myself, but I think no other city here matches Buenos Aires. Except for having a river, maybe, which would be nice (the city is built in such way that the you barely notice the Rio de la Plata).
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YoMartin
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« Reply #30 on: September 28, 2006, 06:55:33 pm »
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And for Rosario, those who knew it some time ago say it has improved a lot recently. I dare to say this in a US forum, but... the socialists have ran it quite well for the last 16 years.
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« Reply #31 on: September 30, 2006, 01:10:13 am »
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And for Rosario, those who knew it some time ago say it has improved a lot recently. I dare to say this in a US forum, but... the socialists have ran it quite well for the last 16 years.
Possibly so, also I have to admit the souless apartment buildings everywhere were a bit depressing.

Nothing compares to Buenos Aires in size and importance, and also in diversity, but... sure it was nice, but it isn't really a city that suits me all that well I suppose. I much preferred Montevideo, which is like a smaller, safer, friendlier, better preserved, equally-priced BsAs with beaches, less obvious landmarks and a worse nightlife. Although Uruguayo pizzas SUCK, it was a pretty funky town; I was surprised so few Argentinos had ever gone there.

How do the more touristic Andean areas vote, and also Missiones? (Neuquen-Bariloche-Esquel etc.)
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« Reply #32 on: September 30, 2006, 08:47:12 pm »
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How do the more touristic Andean areas vote, and also Missiones? (Neuquen-Bariloche-Esquel etc.)

Misiones has elections coming up to reform the provinceīs constitution. Itīs been traditionally the most bipartisan province of all, with peronists (PJ) and radicals (UCR) getting repeteadly over 90%. Now that the radicals are in shambles and the peronists have split, the two main parties are Frente para la Victoria (the label adopted by peronists that support Kirchner), led by governor Rovira, and some huge opposition alliance called FUD. This alliance is solely united in their opposition to allowing unlimited reelection to the governor. Even the church is in this alliance, which es very rare (I think itīs the second time in Argentine politics that a priest runs in an election). Polls show Rovira leading by 5-10%. Unlike most provinces, the capital (Posadas) is not much less peronist than the rest of this (very poor) province.

Neuquén politics, on the contrary, has been dominanted for decades by a provincial party (MPN). The MPN has mostly been close to the peronists, and in fact its origin lies there (when peronism was forbidden, some "neo-peronist" parties were created). Its electoral map is quite diverse, though, and hardcore left parties grew in areas where privatization of the gas company led to high unemployment. The center-left FREPASO also got very good results in the 90īs, and elections used to be very competitive between MPN, FREPASO, PJ and UCR. Today MPN is clearly the largest party, although the capital is still ruled by the UCR.

Bariloche always seemed strange to me, since it has a large population of german origin (and Iīd say, pro-nazi simpathies) but FREPASO got great results there in the 90īs. As a middle class city, however, that choice was more understandable. In the last governorīs election the radical candidate won there.

As for Esquel, I have absolutely no idea. Itīs a really small city, though. The only election I remember there was a referendum called to allow the construction of a mine there, which was defeated by a large margin.

This is a great site, with lots of data and maps: http://towsa.com/andy/index.html
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YoMartin
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« Reply #33 on: October 02, 2006, 02:57:14 pm »
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New poll for Misionesī election (http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/709/2053/1600/678.jpg) gives Rovira an 8% lead. The pollster is fairly reliable, although heīs close to Kirchner. Rovira is not doing very well, considering heīs got Kirchnerīs support (he even went there last week) and the president is getting a (barely believable) 75% in the province: http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/709/2053/1600/348.jpg
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« Reply #34 on: October 02, 2006, 09:34:15 pm »
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those images don't work for me.

Rovira will still win, though, won't he?

Is there anything on the horizon to cause FplVictoria concern?
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YoMartin
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« Reply #35 on: October 03, 2006, 06:25:15 pm »
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Well, itīs an 8% lead (this said by an FpV pollster) and itīs still a few weeks before the election, so victory for FpV is not guaranteed. The FUD has support from the left, the right, the church, the capital (Posadas) mayor (a former ally of him, who still supports Kirchner), even from the two labor federations, CTA and CGT, which (especially CGT) are close to Kirchner at the national level. Rovira must have done something wrong to create this massive lineup against him... And an 8% lead, considering youīre being supported by an extremely popular president, itīs sub-standard, to say the least.

The latest development is really strange: as I said, FUDīs top candidate is a priest. He asked for retirement last year (heīs 75, or something like that), and the Vatican decided to accept that... only yesterday. This was seen as a gesture from the Vatican, meaning that they donīt oppose Kirchner. Of course, it might just be a coincidence, but who knows, it may end up hurting FUD.
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2006, 10:34:10 pm »
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ShjzohMartin (Argie pronunciation Wink), what's news now re: Missiones?
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YoMartin
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« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2006, 07:40:20 pm »
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ShjzohMartin (Argie pronunciation Wink), what's news now re: Missiones?

Hehe, we do pronounce the "y" in an unusual way... Well, us porteņos do, but not in Misiones actually (they pronounce it more like an "i").

Elections were held last sunday, and defying most polls, the opposition to Roviraīs re-election plans won fairly easily (56-43). Roviraīs performance in Posadas, the main city, was disastrous: 66-34. Here are the stats, map, histogram, etc.
http://towsa.com/andy/totalpais/misiones/2006cc.html

There are many reasons for his defeat. First, trying to change just one article of the constitution (the one that forbids unlimited re-election) is stupid, he should have wrapped that within a larger reform. And second, the last couple of days of his campaign were a display of machine politics rarely seen (even in a country, and a province, were machine politics is common). And middle class urban voters donīt like to see those things.
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