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Author Topic: 20 (!) count'em 20 new state polls - Updated in polling section  (Read 5975 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: June 12, 2004, 04:50:18 pm »
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http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/IMAGES/POS_RNC_BG_June2004.pdf

Not sure how to read these results.

Just about all of them seem "ok" with some of the margins for Both Kerry and Bush seeming a bit big in places.

Public Opinion Strategies (R)is a DEEP blue GOP firm - To describe these guys as "partisan" just doesn't seem strong enough some how.

Damn good firm, just super super partisan also.



Here, for what they are worth.

Washington State - Kerry +6.5%

   Bush 42.9
   Kerry 49.4

Iowa - Kerry + 6.9%

   Bush 41.9  
   Kerry 48.8

Arkansas - Bush +5.3% -

   Bush 49.5  
   Kerry 43.8

Arizona - Bush +3.0%

   Bush 48.3  
   Kerry 45.3

Florida - Bush +4.9%

   Bush 49.2
   Kerry 44.3


Michigan - Kerry + 3.2

   Bush 43.3  
   Kerry 46.5

Minnesota - Kerry + 4.3%

   Bush 42.2  
   Kerry 46.5

Missouri - Bush + 4.9%

   Bush 48.9  
   Kerry 44.0

New Hampshire - Kerry + 0.6%

   Bush 44.7
   Kerry 45.3

Nevada - Bush + 0.7%

   Bush 46.1
   Kerry 45.4

New Mexico - Kerry + 3.4%

   Bush 43.7
   Kerry 47.1

New Jersey - Kerry + 7.1%

   Bush 41.7
   Kerry 48.8

North Carolina - Bush + 5.9%

   Bush 49.1
   Kerry 43.2

Ohio - Bush + 3.4%

   Bush 47.1
   Kerry 43.7

Oregon - Kerry + 3.5%

   Bush 42.3
   Kerry 45.8

Pennsylvania - Kerry + 1.5%

   Bush 45.6
   Kerry 47.1

Tennesse - Bush + 10.7%

   Bush 52.3
   Kerry 41.6

Virginia - Bush + 8.4%

   Bush 50.3
   Kerry 41.9

West Virginia - Bush + 2.9%

   Bush 47.1
   Kerry 44.2

Wisconsin - Kerry + 2.8%

   Bush 44.6
   Kerry 47.2
« Last Edit: June 12, 2004, 11:21:32 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2004, 04:53:45 pm »
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I thought Public Opinion Strategies had Bush ahead in Washington according to the poll thread map..
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2004, 04:57:25 pm »
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Excellent bunch of polls.  Thanks for getting them posted.  Do you know the date on them (errr... maybe I should just follow the link)?  I'd say most of the results look as expected, with a few slight surprises each way.
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2004, 04:58:25 pm »
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Shows Bush a bit ahead with Ohio.  Overall slightly positive for Bush since Pennsylvania isn't far away.

Nevada is closer than I would have thought.
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2004, 06:25:09 pm »
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Hell, poll after poll shows Kerry could win NC with edwards.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2004, 06:49:29 pm »
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Like I've said before, if PA stays this close, Bush's ground game will carry him here.
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2004, 06:53:53 pm »
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Like I've said before, if PA stays this close, Bush's ground game will carry him here.

It was this close last time around, and his "ground game" didn't carry him.
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« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2004, 06:54:50 pm »
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Look at New Jersey! This is another poll showing that New Jersey is going to be way closer than anyone expects.  
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« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2004, 07:01:01 pm »
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So its vitually 2000 all over agiain, Bush loses only NH but is still ahead with 274 EV.

I agree NJ is "unlikely"  I helped poll independents for the county GOP and the people I contacted were definitely leaning Kerry, most notably independents who usually vote republican were going for Kerry.

The experience made me wonder how valid polls can be given that about 25% of the people I talked to refused to answer any poll questions.  If that group is leaning one way or the other it would make poll results meaningless
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2004, 07:03:36 pm »
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Like I've said before, if PA stays this close, Bush's ground game will carry him here.

It was this close last time around, and his "ground game" didn't carry him.

In Pennsylvania, the "ground game" argument may have some validity actually.

In 2000, Gore/Brazille did a very very good job in Pennsylvania, while the Bush folks did BRUTAL at turnout.  

The so called "ex-urbs" - the little cities in a ring around Philadelphia about 50ish miles out the Bush folks frankly did very badly in 2000 at getting people out.

Bush lost by 4.14% in 2000 in Pennslyvania, and most of it was turnout.
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« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2004, 07:09:52 pm »
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Like I've said before, if PA stays this close, Bush's ground game will carry him here.

It was this close last time around, and his "ground game" didn't carry him.

Because Bush didn't have a "Ground game" in this state.  Gore had a really good one.  This time, Bush has had his team fully staffed and in operation for the past 3 months.  Kerry has no people here at all, yet.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2004, 07:10:46 pm »
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Kerry starts with a 4% edge man.  I'm pretty sure he takes it in a close electin
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« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2004, 07:27:01 pm »
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Kerry starts with a 4% edge man.  I'm pretty sure he takes it in a close electin

Kerry's "edge" is artificial, as it is based entirely on very high turn-out from the Gore team in 2000.  Gore's people had set up shop and were fully staffed in PA by May of 2000.  Bush's team was never even fully staffed.  There were huge pockets in the "ex-urbs" (as Vorlon said) and in the "T" were there was no Bush effort at all.

This year, Bush has had his HQ established in Harrisburg since February or March.  The HQ alone in perminatly staffed with hundreds of devoted workers.  There are several hundred subs stations throughout PA.  Each is fully staffed.  There is one Bush foot soldier for every 400 people in PA.  Regional offices are all over staffed.

Kerry has an office in Harrisburg that is staffed with about 10 people.  No regional offices.

Bush made the mistake of highly over estimating devoted GOP support in this state in 2000.  He won't make that mistake again.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2004, 07:39:52 pm »
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Kerry starts with a 4% edge man.  I'm pretty sure he takes it in a close electin

Kerry's "edge" is artificial, as it is based entirely on very high turn-out from the Gore team in 2000.  Gore's people had set up shop and were fully staffed in PA by May of 2000.  Bush's team was never even fully staffed.  There were huge pockets in the "ex-urbs" (as Vorlon said) and in the "T" were there was no Bush effort at all.

This year, Bush has had his HQ established in Harrisburg since February or March.  The HQ alone in perminatly staffed with hundreds of devoted workers.  There are several hundred subs stations throughout PA.  Each is fully staffed.  There is one Bush foot soldier for every 400 people in PA.  Regional offices are all over staffed.

Kerry has an office in Harrisburg that is staffed with about 10 people.  No regional offices.

Bush made the mistake of highly over estimating devoted GOP support in this state in 2000.  He won't make that mistake again.

I expect Kerry will get his act together in Pa, and they have "outsourced" a lot of stuff to groups like ACT, but on balance, I think I agree a "little" more with supersoulty than I do the Boss on this one.
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2004, 07:40:01 pm »
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When I add these polls to pollbooth, they will push Bush above 270 by moving 5 of 7 states out of the toss-up column.

Oregon and New Mexico move to Lean Kerry, while West Virginia, Florida, and Ohio (by the vary barest of margins) move to lean Bush.  Wisconsin and New Hampshire stay toss-ups.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2004, 07:42:45 pm »
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When I add these polls to pollbooth, they will push Bush above 270 by moving 5 of 7 states out of the toss-up column.

Oregon and New Mexico move to Lean Kerry, while West Virginia, Florida, and Ohio (by the vary barest of margins) move to lean Bush.  Wisconsin and New Hampshire stay toss-ups.

The Tennessee result looked a bit high for Bush to me, and Washington and Iowa results looked a bit high for Kerry, but other than that, these mesh very well with the other stuff I have seen.

PS - I see in Pollbooth you are using that LA Times piece of %^%^%^%!... Huh

I emailed the LA Times polling folks, the actual partisan breakout was:

Democrats 38%
Republicans 24%
Other: 38%

They are defending this as a representative sample! Smiley



« Last Edit: June 12, 2004, 08:00:30 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2004, 08:57:14 pm »
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The LA Times is guilty of out and out journalistic fraud.  It's not even debatable.  They should be embarassed.  What is so telling about their agenda is that they apparently are not in the least.  This is sad.

Their California recall polls were garbage and now this.  Pitiful.
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2004, 08:58:01 pm »
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When I add these polls to pollbooth, they will push Bush above 270 by moving 5 of 7 states out of the toss-up column.

Oregon and New Mexico move to Lean Kerry, while West Virginia, Florida, and Ohio (by the vary barest of margins) move to lean Bush.  Wisconsin and New Hampshire stay toss-ups.

The Tennessee result looked a bit high for Bush to me, and Washington and Iowa results looked a bit high for Kerry, but other than that, these mesh very well with the other stuff I have seen.

PS - I see in Pollbooth you are using that LA Times piece of %^%^%^%!... Huh

I emailed the LA Times polling folks, the actual partisan breakout was:

Democrats 38%
Republicans 24%
Other: 38%

They are defending this as a representative sample! Smiley





Yeah, I know it's a terrible poll, but I have no objective reason to disqualify it....so far, I haven't been rejecting polls just because the party ID breakdown is off, so I figure I shouldn't start because of this poll, even though it is the worst I've seen.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2004, 09:02:39 pm »
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Yeah, I know it's a terrible poll, but I have no objective reason to disqualify it....so far, I haven't been rejecting polls just because the party ID breakdown is off, so I figure I shouldn't start because of this poll, even though it is the worst I've seen.

Fred's All Beef Double Decker Burger Poll has Bush +9 in the "deluxe with cheese" subsample.  Can I get that in Pollbooth too...?

Cheesy

The LA Times is a member of the National Council on Public Polls and that last poll broke at least 5 or 6 or the required disclosure guidelines of the organization.  For what (little) it is worth NCPP has started an investigation.

They "may" have to publish some token "clarification" or something, but in reality, nothing will come of it.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2004, 09:04:34 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2004, 09:23:32 pm »
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Yeah, I know it's a terrible poll, but I have no objective reason to disqualify it....so far, I haven't been rejecting polls just because the party ID breakdown is off, so I figure I shouldn't start because of this poll, even though it is the worst I've seen.

Fred's All Beef Double Decker Burger Poll has Bush +9 in the "deluxe with cheese" subsample.  Can I get that in Pollbooth too...?

Cheesy

The LA Times is a member of the National Council on Public Polls and that last poll broke at least 5 or 6 or the required disclosure guidelines of the organization.  For what (little) it is worth NCPP has started an investigation.

They "may" have to publish some token "clarification" or something, but in reality, nothing will come of it.

OK...but the LA Times poll was reported in the media nationwide, so it would be hard to just ignore.  And Pollbooth posts enough national polls that it is fairly resiliant to flaws in a single poll...adding the LA Times poll changes Kerry's margin the the 3-week weighted average by less than 0.5%.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2004, 09:34:06 pm by Gov. NickG »Logged
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« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2004, 09:31:33 pm »
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 It is going to be interesting in the desert states:
NM, AZ and NV.
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« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2004, 10:08:42 pm »
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In 1984 Reagan got in AZ 7.65% more than nationally.
In 1988 Bush Sr. Got there 5.95% above his national number.
In 2000, Bush Jr. got in AZ 2.95% above his national figure.
Notice that the population growth in AZ is the highest in the nation - 3.4% per year. Almost every fifth voter in 2004 will be new in AZ.
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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2004, 11:02:29 pm »
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http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/IMAGES/POS_RNC_BG_June2004.pdf

Public Opinion Strategies is a DEEP blue GOP firm - To describe these guys as "partisan" just doesn't seem strong enough some how.


does their partisanship skew their numbers to the right by a point or 2?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2004, 11:17:48 pm »
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does their partisanship skew their numbers to the right by a point or 2?

The honest answer is I don't know.

Historically speaking these guys are deadly accurate - These guys are a good as Zogby claims to be - These guys poll for about a dozen Senators, and dozens of Congessman.  They are hired because they are good.

POS is a combat polling firm - and when you run a campaign, you want your polls to be accurate, not biased.  You need to know the truth, whatever that truth is. - No point putting time and money into a state you can't win.

Speaking solely for myself only, If anything, when polling internally for a campaign you actually try to be just a tad pessimistic, maybe a point or 2, if anything.

A lot of these states, Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Nevada, maybe New Hampshire, Arizona, New Mexico, etc actually look a tad optimistic to the Kerry side IMHO.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2004, 11:30:04 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2004, 11:29:17 pm »
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does their partisanship skew their numbers to the right by a point or 2?

The honest answer is I don't know.

Historically speaking these guys are deadly accurate - These guys are a good as Zogby claims to be - These guys poll for about a dozen Senators, and dozens of Congessman.  They are hired because they are good.

POS is a combat polling firm - and when you run a campaign, you want your polls to be accurate, not biased.  You need to know the truth, whatever that truth is. - No point putting time and money into a state you can't win.

If anything, when you polling internally for a campaign you actually try to be just a tad pessimistic, if anything.

A lot of these states, Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, etc actually look a tad optimistic to the Kerry side IMHO.

The suspicion of bias in polls by partisan firms comes not so much from the belief that individual polls are biased, but that only a small percentage of these polls ever become public.  Candidates generally only release polls that show them in a favorable light.  And even if the poll "leaked out", it is possible that the leak was intentional.  

I don't know how Vorlon came upon these polls, but in this case, they don't seem to be part of a Republican spin operation.
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