Dittman research: Murkowski is set to lose

[OC]

Palin: 44%, Blinkey 29%, Murkowski 17%, U: 14%

www.adn.com

[Keystone Phil]

Ouch. Good riddance.

[OC]

He appointed his daughter to the US Senate and it appeared he doing such in behalf of nepotism, and the economy is also bad in AK. Lastly, he or  his daughter have been in gov't for years and haven't been able to past ANWR.

[Colin]

He appointed his daughter to the US Senate and it appeared he was doing so on because of nepotism, and the economy is also doing badly in AK. Lastly, he or  his daughter have been in gov't for years and haven't been able to past ANWR.

Let's break this down.

1. Yeah he did appoint his daughter to the Senate and it probably was because of nepotism. So +1 for you.

2. Before the pipeline shutdown Alaska was doing great. It had a huge budget surplus and was actually going to give a higher payment to Alaskans, from the dividends of the permanent fund, then the year before. I think Alaska always ranks in the top 15 richest states in the Union. Of course the pipeline shutdown will hurt the economy enormously but Alaska's economy before then was doing quite well, much like other independent petro-states such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia or Azerbaijan.

3. What the hell would ANWR have to do with the Governor? Most Alaskans know that even the stupid blumbling fool Murkowski and daughter have made that a priority. You can't be elected to office in Alaska without making ANWR drilling a priority. Most Alaskans blame the failure of ANWR proposals on enviromentalists from the "Lower 48" who don't get Alaska's needs and to faraway Washington officials who could care less about Alaska. The backlash against Murkowski isn't because, as Governor, he hasn't done anything about ANWR but mostly because he has been shown to be an incompentent Governor and has bumbled the issues most Alaskans are concerned about, local Alaskan problems.

[OC]

I said when he was in the Senate he didn't pass ANWR, and since his daughter is in the senate and can't pass ANWR it may be rubbing off on Murkowski. If it doesn't have an effect, why did Lisa Murkowski use as a campaign against Tony Knowles. Her slim margin was do to the fact that she would be passing ANWR and Tony Knowles, eventhough he was for it, he was associated with the Dems obstructing ANWR.

[Colin]

I said when he was in the Senate he didn't pass ANWR, and since his daughter is in the senate and can't pass ANWR it may be rubbing off on Murkowski. If it doesn't have an effect, why did Lisa Murkowski use as a campaign against Tony Knowles. Her slim margin was do to the fact that she would be passing ANWR and Tony Knowles, eventhough he was for it, he was associated with the Dems obstructing ANWR.

Yeah and who do you think Alaskans will blame ANWR on? Murkowski and his daughter who have continued to push it while they're in the Senate? Or Democrats who have constantly fought it? The election would have never been close if it had been for those charges of nepotism. Plus I don't even know what this has to do with the Governors race since Murkowski has about as much control over ANWR as I do over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

[Harry]

when is the primary?

[DownWithTheLeft]

This Tuesday, August 22nd

[DownWithTheLeft]

Anybody really think Dems hold this seat if Palin wins the primary??

[Vasall des Midas]

Anybody really think Dems hold this seat if Palin wins the primary??

You mean gain, but no, probably not.

[OC]

I don't think the Republicans will win this seat even if Knowles win. Due to the fact the economy is bad and the anger the voters felt over Murkowski. Eventhough Rasmussen showed Palin with the lead, Knowles has held statewide office and was governor moreso than Palin.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Palin had a 13 point advantage.  That's hardly margin of error, and AK is one of the most conservative states, they were more liberal when Knowles was governor.

[OC]

In one poll.  The Field Poll has it a closer race. I am waiting for another poll to be released to determine if Palin is really ahead. But, like I said I give the edge to Knowles, not based solely on polls, but he held the governor's mansion before. The race will remain a tossup by mose pundits standards.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Field Poll?  They have Cantwell up 22, do you really believe that?  Even they only had Palin down 4 before she was known at all.  As she becomes more known she'll only gain ground, Knowles would have to be close at this point to have a shot.

[OC]

He will be close when the primary is over, and I expect him to get a bump from his primary. The gap will not be 13 after the primary, I guarentee you that. And that Field Poll wasn't all that off Rasmussen has McGavick down by 11 points, and they currrently  have  Schwarzenegger ahead by 8 points.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Knowles getting a bump from the primary?

Just looking generically, which one gets a bump:
1.) Fmr. Governor
2.) Little-known challenger who beats incumbent governor

?

Option 2 in case your not sure

[OC]

The president is very low in Alaska and the republicans control the state government in the state, I think that helps Democrats in Knowles. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

AK gives the President have 15th highest approval according to SurveyUSA and their numbers are very low only I believe 36% approval for the nation when it is closer to 40-41%

[OC]

But if you look at the Bush approval of the economy they give him negative marks on, that's why it bolds well for Knowles and don't bold well for republicans.

[MasterJedi]

As long as Murkowski loses Republicans should hold on to this seat. And no the creator of this thread who has a Dem's will win all seats fetish or something.

[OC]

As far as Alaska, the Republicans are not assured that they will hold this seat, as far as my predictions, my predictions are in perfectly in line what most pundits say, the Democrats will win 5-7 seats, I don't think my predictions are way off. If I was way off, I would predict that the Dems to win FL, NV, or CA, which are even more in bad than Knowles. You can't predict that the republians will win this race.

[MasterJedi]

You can't predict that the republians will win this race.

I just did, so I can. -_-

[OC]

You can predict, but the final poll is on election day, and the voters will decide on who will  win. You can predict by you cannot project the outcome of this race.

Before we can find out for sure is when a new poll is released after the primary. I think Palin is an attractive candidate and she is probably favored but you can't discount the fact that Knowles was governor before, and the voters won't take that into consideration. This race is a tossup and it will go down to the wire.

[MasterJedi]

You can predict, but the final poll is on election day, and the voters will decide on who will  win. You can predict by you cannot project the outcome of this race.

Then how come you're dead sure your favorite Alaskan Dem will definitly win the election? Please stop with the crap on that.

[OC]

I didn't say that Knowles will definately win, but you can't discount him being governor, I wasn't trying to say he will definately win, I was trying to say voters will take that into consideration. That's all.