Who has a better chance of being the next governor of New York?

[© tweed]

Both have about a 0% chance but I went with Suozzi.  He just has to change about 500,000 minds while Faso has top change the demographics of the state.

[Smash255]

Suozzi has a better chane thn Faso.  When Suozzi is included in the General Election polls, he is leading Faso by at least 15.

[WalterMitty]

faso.

[Boris]

Suozzi. Regardless of who he's up against, Faso loses.

[jerusalemcar5]

Suozzi, most definitely, speaking as a New Yorker.  The NYGOP needs to stop nominating conservatives, of course if they don't you get Marilyn O'Grady wackos to steal the <5% of the vote that is conservative.

Mitty, why do you say Faso?

[WalterMitty]

Mitty, why do you say Faso?

both have close to a zero shot of course.

however, in terms of probability, id have to assume that the person that is assured of a spot on the general election ballot has a better shot than the person who is not assured of a spot on the general election ballot.

[jerusalemcar5]

Mitty, why do you say Faso?

both have close to a zero shot of course.

however, in terms of probability, id have to assume that the person that is assured of a spot on the general election ballot has a better shot than the person who is not assured of a spot on the general election ballot.

Hm.  Following the primary, I would side with you.  However this far out Suozzi could win the primary more easily than Faso the general.  Obviously the winner of the Democratic primary will be New York's next governor.

[WalterMitty]

Mitty, why do you say Faso?

both have close to a zero shot of course.

however, in terms of probability, id have to assume that the person that is assured of a spot on the general election ballot has a better shot than the person who is not assured of a spot on the general election ballot.

Hm.  Following the primary, I would side with you.  However this far out Suozzi could win the primary more easily than Faso the general.  Obviously the winner of the Democratic primary will be New York's next governor.

so in other words, suozzi has to win two very long shot elections to be governor.

faso has to win one long shot election.

so, faso has the statistically greater chance.

[jerusalemcar5]

Mitty, why do you say Faso?

both have close to a zero shot of course.

however, in terms of probability, id have to assume that the person that is assured of a spot on the general election ballot has a better shot than the person who is not assured of a spot on the general election ballot.

Hm.  Following the primary, I would side with you.  However this far out Suozzi could win the primary more easily than Faso the general.  Obviously the winner of the Democratic primary will be New York's next governor.

so in other words, suozzi has to win two very long shot elections to be governor.

faso has to win one long shot election.

so, faso has the statistically greater chance.

No, Suozzi has to win one long shot (primary).  If Suozzi won the primary he would easily be elected governor.  The general election won't matter this year.

Faso has to win one very very long shot (general). 

So, long shot is less to overcome than very very long shot.

[Nym90]

As has been said, both have basically no chance, but Suozzi probably has a slightly greater chance of somehow winning the primary than Faso would have in the general election.

[MaC]

New York Republicans were retarded for nominating Faso over Weld.

[jerusalemcar5]

New York Republicans were retarded for nominating Faso over Weld.

Not really.  Weld was quite unpopular for his strong Massachusetts connections while Faso was for his conservative views.  Either would be crushed by Spitzer.  Recently, the Conservative Party has been nominating many non-Republican candidates causing a lot of races to be close and even swining some would-be Republican wins to Democrats (like my state senate district ).  I think they realized they had to court the conservative vote and the best way to do it is in an election that doesn't matter.  Faso was the better pick.

[Lincoln Republican]

Both Suozzi and Faso would have about as much chance as the other. 

Either one would be brought forward as a token offering upon the alter of political sacrifice.

It depends on which one of them wants to fall upon their own sword.   

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Suozzi could win if a major scandal hit Spitzer before the primary. If such a massive scandal hit Spitzer after the primary, he'd drop out, and the Dems would replace him with someone who would beat Faso (and that person might very well be Suozzi). So Suozzi has a very very long shot chance, while Faso has no chance at all.