Holyrood 2007: The mind of a tactical voter

[afleitch]

As im myself I am I thinking about it too much?

Desired outcome: SNP largest party, Conservative advance, Green advance, SSP collapse.

Vote 1: Hamilton South
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Incumbent: Tom McCabe (LAB) Majority: 4824
Plan: Vote SNP

Vote 2: Regional

Here's where it gets tricky: If I vote SNP here too, and they win at constituency level the vote is theoretically wasted. I wish for the Conservatives to return Margaret Mitchell (They finished 3rd overall  in 2003). But if the SSCUP, SSP or Respect and OCV should they run pose a threat and the Greens become the party best placed to hold them back from winning should I vote Green? If the Tories collapse and the Greens do poorly, but OCV do well and the SSP are the main challengers should I vote SSP (!)

Of course We won't know until next spring But at the moment it stands like this...

Regional: 1st choice: Conservative
                2nd choice: Green
                3rd choice: SNP
         

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Heh, tactical voting always gets complicated when you've got a mixed system

I will, probably, be voting in the Welsh Assembly elections next year so...

Vote 1: Arfon
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Incumbent: None, really. It would likely have been narrowly Plaid in '03 and I think Plaid's Caernarfon incumbent is going to run there next year.
Plan: Vote Labour

Vote 2: Regional TopUp

Not done the maths, but if I'm pretty sure that if. Labour don't win both Aberconwy and Clwyd West (and both are marginal), Labour takes a topup seat.
Plan: Vote Labour

O/c a lot of people seem likely to vote for Labour in the constituency election and Plaid for the list; reason being, Wigley is 2nd on Plaid's topup list and can only win if they lose a constituency seat.

[Harry Hayfield]

On a similar view, may I present the mind of a committed Lib Dem.

Ceredigion Constituency: Lib Dem

Well, given our marvellous gain in 2005, anything else would be ridculous.

Mid and West Wales Region: Now, we have problems

I would imagine there is no one else in the Welsh Lib Dems who understands the AMS system better than me, and perhaps that's where the problems lie. You see, if I vote Lib Dem on the region and we win Ceredigion that means my AMS vote will be quartered, so the question is should I vote for another party (say Greens or someone like that), to ensure that my constituency vote gets us the gain in Ceredigion that we would so dearly like!

If that wasn't a problem (or we had STV) my voting order would be:

1) Lib Dem
2) Green
3) Forward Wales
4) Labour
5) Conservatives
6) United Kingdom Independence Party
7) Plaid Cymru