Dem Primary Dates for 2008

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, the DNC today ratified this calendar (which had been approved by their rules committee last month) today.  The GOP calendar will probably be the same, except with Nevada coming later in the schedule.  Then a week after SC, on February 5th, there will probably be about 9 or 10 states holding primaries/caucuses for both parties.  I think there's a good chance that, after those first-week-of Feb. primaries, each party will have one candidate with enough victories that their momentum will be unstoppable, and we'll pretty much know who the nominees are.  That's what happened last time around with Kerry winning 5 out of 7 February 3rd primaries (following victories in both IA and NH).  By that point, it was pretty much over.

[Mr. Morden]

Does anybody know if Oklahoma will retain its first-week in February primary like it had in 2004?

It's not listed on this page that has a list of all states that have moved their primaries for 2008:

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/chrnothp08.html

So my working assumption is that it'll still be scheduled for the first week of February.

[Mr. Morden]

What would be if Mark Warner narrowly wins Iowa in front of Hillary and then loses in Nevada ? Everything would be looking to NH then, right ?

Well, yes, but NH alone wouldn't necessarily decide it.  My feeling is that if a candidate manages to win 3 of these first four primaries/caucuses in a row, that will probably give them an unstoppable level of momentum, and they'll go all the way.  If no one does that, I still think these first four contests will narrow the field down to two viable contenders, and if one of them wins at least 6 of the 9 or 10 February 5th primaries, *that* will provide them with unstoppable momentum.  Yes, there's a good chance that we'll know (with about 90% certainty) who the two major party nominees are by the first week of February 2008.