Senate Elections - 2004

[zorkpolitics]

Alaska is rated a toss up by most observers, since the incumbent Murkowski was appointed to the seat by her dad.  All previous polls I've seen favored ex-Governor Knowles (D).  A local TV station has begun a series of monthly polls and the first one out shows the race is close:
Knowles 44% Murkowski 43% +/-4% see:
http://www.msnbc.com/local/ktuu/m340014.asp?0ct=-302

[zorkpolitics]

The general assumption here is the Republicans should pick up a few of the retiring Democratic seats for a net gain of 2-3 seats.
However for a fairly detailed alternative view and reality check see:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/24/215824/13
and
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/25/172540/05
In this analysis the GOP will likely lose IL and AK, while OK and CO (if Hart runs) are toss ups.  Races that could come into play are: NH, PA, KY, even UT and AL
The Democrats are likely to lose only GA, with FL as a toss-up, NC, SC, LA lean Democratic, and FL would lean Democratic if Harris runs.  SD might become competitive, if Thune runs. (No mention of WA?)
Thus this analysis gives the Democrats a good chance to take the Senate.

Senate races can run contrary to Presidential races (Bush won in 2000 but the Republicans lost 5 seats), so even a Bush victory does not imply the Republicans will retain the Senate.    I think the Senate races will turn out to be very interesting and we'll need to wait until the primaries are done and the final match-ups are known to get an accurate idea of how they are heading.  If the Presidential race is another close election, it may come down to who can raise the most money under the new rules and who best gets their message across.  Of course, if Bush (or Dean?) wins easily, it would probably affect some of the Senate races as well.

[zorkpolitics]

I think the Senate will become more exciting as we move through the year.

Bush may completely change the conventional wisdom on the Senate seats since he is committed to winning a GOP victory, not just a Bush victory in Nov.  Bush plans to complete his 2004  "primary" fund raising by March.  Much of the $200 million is dedicated to organizing the grass roots, registering up to 3 million new GOP voters, and planning for the 72 hr GOTV.  All of this will benefit down ticket races.
After March it seems likely Bush will turn his prodigious fund rasing abilty to the competitive Senate and House seats, potentially drawing on his Pioneers and Rangers to raise additional millions for the Senate races.  This will help defend OK and AK, improve chances in NC, SC, FL, GA, and LA, and I think, will surprise everyone by putting Democratic seats in WA, SD, CA, WI, into the competition and perhaps even ND, and NV if the GOP can find someone to run there.