If Dean doesn't win NH

[MAS117]

WHAT SHOULD HE DO? I SAY DROP OUT AND GO BACK TO VT WHERE HE CAME FROM

[NHPolitico]

WHAT SHOULD HE DO? I SAY DROP OUT AND GO BACK TO VT WHERE HE CAME FROM

He's from New York.

[Harry]

WHAT SHOULD HE DO? I SAY DROP OUT AND GO BACK TO VT WHERE HE CAME FROM

He's from New York.

Vermont.

[Harry]

He'll continue fighting--why not?
He probably wouldn't drop out until Super Tuesday--he has the money and a chance at the nom.

[NHPolitico]

Vermont.

And Gore's from TN, too, I guess, and not DC. Dean is a New Yorker who became governor of Vermont.

[MAS117]

whatever weither hes from NY or VT he should go back to whereever he clawed out from

[jravnsbo]

I see Dean staying in.  He has the money and organization.  Kerry is still strapped and has little organization in the Feb 3 states.  it will be interesting to see polls in those states now after IA.

[Demrepdan]

Vermont.

And Gore's from TN, too, I guess, and not DC. Dean is a New Yorker who became governor of Vermont.

Gore was born in DC, but he IS a Tennesseean....and Dean was born in New York..but he IS a Vermonter.....President Bush was born in Connecticut...but he IS a Texan.

Wherever you RESIDE...that's where you are...whether it's your born state or not.

P.S. Sorry to say...Senator Hillary Clinton was born in Illinois...moved to Arkansas....but she now...IS a New Yorker....that's the way it works folks.

[NHPolitico]

whatever weither hes from NY or VT he should go back to whereever he clawed out from

My point is that I'm not sure Vermont would even take him. New York might.

[NHPolitico]

I see Dean staying in.  He has the money and organization.  Kerry is still strapped and has little organization in the Feb 3 states.  it will be interesting to see polls in those states now after IA.

That's what I got from that rally of his Monday night.  He's in this until all his supporters abandon him. I bet he thinks if he can keep winning delegates that he can maybe persuade the convention to give him the top spot on the ticket.

[© Tweed the Younger]

He should drop out and go out with some class...but he would stay in and fight, no doubt, he isn't going to give up.

[NHPolitico]

Vermont.

And Gore's from TN, too, I guess, and not DC. Dean is a New Yorker who became governor of Vermont.

Gore was born in DC, but he IS a Tennesseean....and Dean was born in New York..but he IS a Vermonter.....President Bush was born in Connecticut...but he IS a Texan.

Wherever you RESIDE...that's where you are...whether it's your born state or not.

P.S. Sorry to say...Senator Hillary Clinton was born in Illinois...moved to Arkansas....but she now...IS a New Yorker....that's the way it works folks.

It's semantics, I guess.

[bill]

Let’s not burry him yet. Howard Dean is a small state Governor. He rose to become frontrunner and still is. Dean is a person who wants health to all Americans and believes in human rights. Polls show that New Hampshire wants a presidential candidate who cares about the issues.  Kerry won Iowa because of his Veteran friend and Dean lost cause he yelled at that guy. But everybody makes mistakes and Deans concession speech makes people aware of why they liked him in the first place, He’s different. Howard Dean is the only major candidate who opposed the war on Iraq. He can still win and beat Bush. He won’t give up until he loses his support and come on that won’t happen. Dean has the money and organisation to win.

[Michael Z]

Let’s not burry him yet. Howard Dean is a small state Governor. He rose to become frontrunner and still is. Dean is a person who wants health to all Americans and believes in human rights. Polls show that New Hampshire wants a presidential candidate who cares about the issues.

Hello and welcome to the forum, Bill.

Anyway, I agree with some of what you said above, and it's definitely too early to bury Dean, but you can't deny the fact that the defeat in Iowa has severely hurt his campaign.

The Democratic primaries no longer have a clear front runner. Kerry, Edwards, Dean and Clark now all have an equal chance of winning the nomination.

Kerry won Iowa because of his Veteran friend and Dean lost cause he yelled at that guy.

That's a simplistic analysis. Kerry began to lead the polls before the public reunion with "his Veteran friend". Dean's campaign team made some fatal mistakes in IA, chiefly through negative adverts which turned off a lot of people. Edwards and Kerry held positive upbeat campaigns which attracted moderates and the undecided, and thus turned the caucus in their favour.

Dean needs to change the tone of his campaign if he wants to regain his lead in the polls. Not concentrate on what Bush and other Democrats are doing wrong, but what he will do instead.

But everybody makes mistakes and Deans concession speech makes people aware of why they liked him in the first place, He’s different.

That isn't really much of a reason. I mean, a dead squirrel would be a different kind of candidate. But that doesn't necessarily mean that people want to see a dead squirrel as President.

Howard Dean is the only major candidate who opposed the war on Iraq. He can still win and beat Bush. He won’t give up until he loses his support and come on that won’t happen. Dean has the money and organisation to win.

I'll be honest with you, Dean's campaign has too many shadows of McGovern about it. I like Dean. I agree with a lot of the things he stands for, but I just don't think he is electable. Karl Rove's publicity machine would tear him apart. The media, not just Fox News but also the more "objective" channels, are now portraying him as a crazy clown after his juvenile, erm, speech.

Don't get me wrong, stick with your candidate by all means, I'm just putting my thoughts across.

[YRABNNRM]

I dont think he'll drop out. I think he may still be able to pick up some primaries.

[Wakie]

It is way too early to start counting people out (aside from Sharpton & Kucinich who never stood a chance anyway).

Here's what NH means for the remaining ....

Leiberman -- I'd say Joe needs at least a solid 3rd place finish to stay in it.  He's focused so much time and money there that if he doesn't come in at least 3rd he's done.

Kerry -- A NH win would immediately boost him into the stratosphere.  Solid 2nd or 3rd place finishes will keep him in the hunt.  A 4th or lower would drop him back to where he was before Iowa (on the verge of disaster).

Dean -- Anything less than a NH win will be a big blow to Dean.  He suffers from being the early frontrunner ... they always run out of steam.  If he finishes 4th or lower it would be catastrophic.  Not enough to knock him out ... but it seriously damages his campaign.

Clark -- A win would move him into the spot of media darling.  A 2nd or 3rd is the expected result.  A 4th would be disappointing but not horrific.  Anything lower and he drops.

Edwards -- If he does better than 4th it is big news and a win for him.

My NH prediction ....
1) Dean
2) Kerry
3) Clark
4) Edwards
5) Leiberman

[emergingDmajority1]

Kerry takes lead in NH, new Herald poll shows


January  21,  2004

Boston Herald
By David R. Guarino and Andrew Miga




Sen. John F. Kerry has catapulted into a 10-point New Hampshire lead six
days before the nation's first primary, bouncing out of Iowa and over
longtime frontrunner Howard Dean, according to a new Boston Herald poll.


The Massachusetts senator leads Dean 31 percent to 21 percent, with
a slipping Wesley K. Clark at 16 percent after skipping the Iowa
caucuses.

Sen. John Edwards is in fourth place with 11 percent, followed by
Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 4 percent. Rev. Al Sharpton and Rep. Dennis
Kucinich continue to barely register.

Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers called it a "dramatic turn-around
for John Kerry."

"His once fledgling campaign has found new legs and he now finds
himself the clear front-runner in this race," Myers said.

The poll, of 501 likely Democratic primary voters, was taken by RKM
Research and Communication Tuesday and yesterday in the immediate
aftermath of Kerry's surprise Iowa caucus victory. The poll's margin of
error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The Herald poll is the first two-day sampling since Iowa's vote.

It shows a startling turn-around from the Herald's pre-Iowa poll of
New Hampshire voters published last week.

In that poll, Dean led with 29 percent and Clark surging into
second place with 20 percent. Kerry was lagging in third five points
behind Clark.

For Kerry, it marks a sea-change in fortune in his neighboring
state - which has suddenly gone from potential embarassment to the spot
where he could begin to steamroll candidates out of the race.

Kerry's charge is bolstered by soaring popularity, with 77 percent
of voters viewing him favorably and just 18 percent seeing him
unfavorably. That rating jumped significantly from the 54 percent
favorable and 27 percent unfavorable ratings Kerry had in the Herald's
pre-Iowa poll.

Voters think Kerry has the best shot at beating President Bush, has
the best foreign policy resume and will best handle domestic issues like
health care and education, the poll found.

At the same time, the poll shows New Hamphire's love affair with
Dean slipping after his 20-point Iowa loss to Kerry.

Dean's favorable rating dropped from 66 percent in the pre-Iowa
poll to 56 percent today while his unfavorable rating climbed from 21
percent to 34 percent.

The poll also shows a huge flip among who voters of all stripes
think will win the primary - a good measure of expectations. While 72
percent of voters thought Dean would win before the Iowa vote, only 30
percent think the former Vermont governor will pull it out today - 38
percent say Kerry will win.

Even more striking, according to Myers, only 6 percent of voters
said Kerry would win the Democratic nomination before Iowa and 40
percent say he will now.

Though still out of striking range in head-to-head match-ups, Sen.
John Edwards is also apparently enjoying a strong push after his
second-place Iowa finish, the poll found.

Edwards had a huge jump from 5 percent in pre-Iowa surveys, is
nearly catching Clark for second place and saw his favorable rating jump
from 52 percent to 69 percent.

"Despite this increase, Edwards' improved image has not yet
translated into significantly higher electoral appeal in New
Hampshire," Myers said.

[M]

If Edwards play it smart, he can beat our good 'ol pal Wes. Kerry has the state win here locked. Dean will, I think, continue to slide in the short term- his antics and negativity are increasingly unpopular, and if he changes now he looks fake and is no longer a "different" kind of politician. Dean falling into third is possible, though still unlikely.

[jravnsbo]

If Dean can just get 2d in NH, he should stay in it, maybe even 3rd.  This is now about delegates.  As bad as Dean got stomped in IA, it only broke 20-18-7 for Kerry-edwards-dean.  he should still beat Edwards and then head into Feb 3 states in good shape being more competitive in a number of states.  Kerry has no organization and has ignored these states.

Going to get interesting yet.

[StevenNick]

Before everyone goes and pronounces Dean DOA remember this:  in every primary campaign in the history of the Iowa caucus (since 1972) the candidate with the most money going into Iowa always won the nomination.  Dean is by far the most well funded of all the candidates.  He's still got a base of alienated democrats which is more loyal than any of the support the other democrats can command.  Dean is the only democratic candidate that is truly running a 50 state campaign right now.  If there's one thing we all learned from Iowa it's that you can't count anybody out.  Dean's in trouble now, but by Feb. 3 he could be the undisputed front runner once again.  This race is simply too volatile to predict.  I, for one, will wait and see who wins NH before making any erroneous prognostications.

[12th Doctor]

I think that Dean is going to stick around until he wins, or it becomes IMPOSSIBLE for him to do so.  He may stay in until April if that happened.

[MAS117]

if dean doesnt win in NH thats a huge blow to him. however kerry hasnt put any money into Feb. 3rd primaries and will have trouble in those, but will probbaly focus on them after NH

[12th Doctor]

If Dean forces Kerry to spend money in New Hampshire and the Feb. 3rd states, then he can cause Kerry to bankrupt himself or face elimination.  Dean can still win, don't kid yourselves.  I think that Kerry was a fluk.  Dean or Edwards will carry the election.

[12th Doctor]

BOW DOWN BEFORE YOUR NEW GOD!!!!!!!!!!!

[12th Doctor]

Woops, lets try that again.

BOW DOWN, FOR YOU ARE NOT WORTHY!!!!!!!!!!