If Dean doesn't win NH

[MAS117]

lol im aporraching my 200th post

[M]

As am I. As for erroneous contradictions, they're much more fun than playing it safe. The greatest thrill of the political game is sticking your neck out and raising the stakes.

[Demrepdan]

Woops, lets try that again.

BOW DOWN, FOR YOU ARE NOT WORTHY!!!!!!!!!!

*bows*

All hail...Supersoulty!!!!

[NHPolitico]

If Dean can just get 2d in NH, he should stay in it, maybe even 3rd.  This is now about delegates.  As bad as Dean got stomped in IA, it only broke 20-18-7 for Kerry-edwards-dean.  he should still beat Edwards and then head into Feb 3 states in good shape being more competitive in a number of states.  Kerry has no organization and has ignored these states.

Going to get interesting yet.

It comes down to whether Dean pulls out for party unity or whether he is in it to win it-- until it is mathematically impossible.  That point of math may not be until April or so.

[jravnsbo]

but VERY hard to start running in those states with only a week to go and 7 states that are spread out and he still needs a lot more money.

if dean doesnt win in NH thats a huge blow to him. however kerry hasnt put any money into Feb. 3rd primaries and will have trouble in those, but will probbaly focus on them after NH

[Wakie]

Rove must be pulling his hair out trying to figure out which of these guys he's going to be running against.

[jravnsbo]

or smiling as they continue to attack each other, spend money against each other and continue to be in general dissaray as the President stays above the fray and continues to lead!

If this thing does go to the convention, bush may not be able to run down a candidate but then spend all his war chest on apositive campaign, which is more liked anyway.

Rove must be pulling his hair out trying to figure out which of these guys he's going to be running against.

[NHPolitico]

Latest NH tracking poll of 303 interviews...

1/21 poll +/- 6 points MOE
Kerry: 29 (no change)
Clark: 21 (up 3)
Dean: 17 (a fall of 7 points in one day)
Edwards: 10 (no change)
Undecided: 15 (up 4)

As the results for January 21 indicate, Howard Dean continues to lose support. This trend may continue as Dean's favorable continued to drop on January 21. In the 3-day sample ending January 19, 57% of likely Democratic primary voters had a favorable opinion of Dean, 19% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 24% were aware of Dean but undecided. In the January 20 sample, 39% had a favorable opinion of Dean, 30% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 31% were undecided. In the January 21 sample, 33% had a favorable opinion of Dean, 30% had an unfavorable opinion of Dean, and 37% were undecided. The movement from favorable to undecided signals a continuing drop in ballot preference for Dean.

[jravnsbo]

should make for an interesting debate tonight!

[NHPolitico]

The political fallout continued when former New Hampshire Sen. John Durkin told CNN he was withdrawing his endorsement of Dean in part because of Dean's Iowa comportment.

-----------------------------

Former US Senator John Durkin (D-NH) Endorses Howard Dean
For immediate release, 12/20/03
NH Press Office, 603-222-1900

MANCHESTER - Dean for America announced today that former United States Senator John Durkin (D-NH) endorsed Governor Howard Dean for President.

"I am deeply grateful to have the endorsement of Senator Durkin," said Governor Dean. "He has served his state well and fought hard for people here in New Hampshire. His experience and support will help us grow our Granite State campaign even more and help ensure our success in January and beyond."

"Governor Dean is bright; he's tough; he's honest; he's a Harry Truman Democrat who'll tell you what's what and tell you like it is, and that's a rare combination," said Senator Durkin. "People across America fear their jobs will be outsourced, their children won't be able to afford an education, or an illness would bankrupt their dreams. Governor Dean is the only hope for working people."

Speaking at the Manchester Public Library on Thursday, where he introduced Governor Dean before Dean's "Keeping the Promise of America" speech, Senator Durkin added, "Governor Dean is also the only hope for those who want to keep John Ashcroft out of this library and every other library in the country."

Senator Durkin served in the United States Navy and then practiced law in Manchester, New Hampshire. He has served as a New Hampshire Assistant Attorney General, New Hampshire Insurance Commissioner and finally as a member of the United States Senate from 1975 to 1980. He has since continued the practice of law in New Hampshire and is a resident of Manchester.

[Gustaf]

Before everyone goes and pronounces Dean DOA remember this:  in every primary campaign in the history of the Iowa caucus (since 1972) the candidate with the most money going into Iowa always won the nomination.  Dean is by far the most well funded of all the candidates.  He's still got a base of alienated democrats which is more loyal than any of the support the other democrats can command.  Dean is the only democratic candidate that is truly running a 50 state campaign right now.  If there's one thing we all learned from Iowa it's that you can't count anybody out.  Dean's in trouble now, but by Feb. 3 he could be the undisputed front runner once again.  This race is simply too volatile to predict.  I, for one, will wait and see who wins NH before making any erroneous prognostications.

I might be wrong here, but I thought George Wallace had the most money when the 1976 primaries started? But maybe he didn't really run in Iowa, I am not exacly sure what you mean.

[NHPolitico]

should make for an interesting debate tonight!

One commentator noted that Dean can't go on the attack against Clark or Kerry or Edwards-- who have more momentum in NH-- because it just feeds into the Incredible Hulk stereotype of him. Dean is boxed in.

The tracking pollster also said that while Clinton fell and then bounced back to be the Comeback Kid, Dean doesn't have the time to do so. He'd be scheduled (based on Clinton's chronology) for an upward trajectory to begin on Election Day. Talk about a day late (and a dollar short)!

[jravnsbo]

will be interesting as this is the first debate where dean is not the frontrunner and the others don't need to attack him now.

should make for an interesting debate tonight!

One commentator noted that Dean can't go on the attack against Clark or Kerry or Edwards-- who have more momentum in NH-- because it just feeds into the Incredible Hulk stereotype of him. Dean is boxed in.

The tracking pollster also said that while Clinton fell and then bounced back to be the Comeback Kid, Dean doesn't have the time to do so. He'd be scheduled (based on Clinton's chronology) for an upward trajectory to begin on Election Day. Talk about a day late (and a dollar short)!

[MAS117]

DEBATE TONIGHT 8pm EST, FOX NEWS CHANNEL!

[00tim]

It is doubtful that Dean will drop out, even if he doesn't win in NH. Even if he comes in 2nd and gets better than 18% he can claim that he is gaining ground, not that he really is but that would be the spin of it. One thing that this primary may do to the chagrin of the democrats is be protracted and go on well after super tuesday. The only way this is not going to happen is if Kerry gets a huge win in NH and then gets the majority on Feb 3rd. Dean would have to place a buch of 3rds and Clark and Edwards will have to be distant wherever they place.

This should be it for Lieberman and Kuccinich. Why they would stay in at this point is just a waste of time. Shartpton will probably be in for most if not all of the primaries but he too is wasting valueable time that the remaining candidates could have but it is his right.