For those who are interested in Australian politics

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=1

This is just a rundown of where things stand.

Political Parties

The Liberal Party - Centre-right party, de-regulation, free markets

The Labor Party - Centrist (some say centre-left... but we'll see, they used to be)

The National Party - Centre-right, country based, in coalitions with the Liberals in most states and Federally.

The Greens - Left

The Democrats - centre-left, once a powerful force in Australian politics, now fading rapidly, replaced by the Greens


Present state of Affairs
Federal Government: Liberal (since 1996)
States
New South Wales: Labor (since 1995)
Victoria: Labor (since 1999)
Queensland: Labor (since 1998)
South Australia: Labor (since 2002)
Western Australia: Labor (since I think 2001)
Tasmania: Labor (since 1998)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two questions:

1. When's the next federal election due?

2. Is there any demographic info on individual constituencies/divisions/etc available online? (I had a look a long time ago and never found anything).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well by tradition, the next Federal election should be held by Oct '07. My bet is that it will be a little earlier... like August.

Um... it's not great on that front.

Try.

www.aec.gov.au

www.abc.net.au/elections/

[Colin]

Well it seems that the Coalition has a very nice lead in first preference votes but the two-party preferential is astonishingly close. I have no doubt though, excluding some sort of major disaster or an overall slowing of the economy, Coalition will be re-elected.

Has Howard said for sure that he will run for another term? I remember hearing that this definitely pissed off Costello and I just want to know if that's still the game plan for the Coalition.

I wouldn't call Labor centrist. Under Latham they went to the centre, for campaigning purposes, though I think that Beazley has mostly taken the party back into the old status-quo.

The Democrats, from what I've read, weren't really centre-left but more centrist liberals, in the European sense. Though they really have just lost all cohesion and power that they had. They probably wont have any Senate seats after 2007. The Greens on the other hand seem to be keeping their 2004 numbers which bodes well for them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As it stands the economy has been the one thing that Howard has that most have been unable to challenge him on.
However, recently things have been getting increasingly tricky.
- Three interest rate rises in the last year... and another likely before Christmas (even though they are much lower than under Labor, people's pockets have very short memories - especially when it's those who were too young to remember the high rates)
- Housing affordability in the major cities... especially Sydney and Melbourne - even in places like Canberra.
- Petrol prices
- Inflationary pressures
- New Industrial relations legistation is proving very unpopular


Howard has said that he will seek a 4th term. Costello got a lot of sympathy when it was reported that before the Howard became Lib leader (again) in 1995 that he promised Costello he would serve 11/2 terms then hand over the leadership. Howard said no such deal existed, Costello said it did, and in most polls, people seemed to believe Costello. But polls also showed that they preferred them in the roles they have now.

Frankly there are lot of tight Liberal seats in suburban Sydney and Melbourne that could shift if household budget pressures continue along the present track. Howard is more vulnerable than any time since mid-2001 when the arrival of the Tampa and 9/11 turned things in his favour.

This is quick rundown of the past 4 elections - remember we have the rather ridiculous preferential voting system.

1996
Seats: Libs: 75 Nats: 18 (Total coalition - 93) Lab: 49 Country Lib: 1 Others: 5   
Two party preferred vote - Lib/Nats 53.6%   Labor 46.4%

1998
Seats: Libs 64  Nats 16 (Total coalition - 80) Lab 67 Other 1
Two Party preferred - Lib/Nat 49.0%  Labor 51.0%
* The Libs huge 1996 majority and the lack of uniformity in the Labor vote prevented them taking power

2001
Seats: Libs 68  Nats 13 (Total coalition - 81) Lab 64 Country Lib 1 Green 1 Independent 1
Two party preferred - Lib/Nat 50.3%  Labor 49.7%

2004
Seats: Libs 74  Nats 12 (Total coalition - 86) Lab 60  Coutry Lib 1 Independent 3
Two party preferred - Lib/Nat 52.7%  Labor 47.3%

On the democrats their direction is based largely on their leaders rather than a uniform policy (which was part of their overall problem).

[Umengus]

http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=1

This is just a rundown of where things stand.

Political Parties

The Liberal Party - Centre-right party, de-regulation, free markets

The Labor Party - Centrist (some say centre-left... but we'll see, they used to be)

The National Party - Centre-right, country based, in coalitions with the Liberals in most states and Federally.

The Greens - Left

The Democrats - centre-left, once a powerful force in Australian politics, now fading rapidly, replaced by the Greens


Present state of Affairs
Federal Government: Liberal (since 1996)
States
New South Wales: Labor (since 1995)
Victoria: Labor (since 1999)
Queensland: Labor (since 1998)
South Australia: Labor (since 2002)
Western Australia: Labor (since I think 2001)
Tasmania: Labor (since 1998)

Economics is not enough. What about immigration, crime, values, terrorism, taxes,... ?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Economics is not enough. What about immigration, crime, values, terrorism, taxes,... ?

Well -

Taxes - well, as a rule this is included in economy.

Immigration - is a tricky one, was definitely in play in 2001 election - straight after 9/11. Of course forgetting that all 9/11 hijackers entered the US legally.

Crime - It matters in state elections, since the Police are bodies funded by the states.

"Values" - This is very hard for an American to believe how small a role these play in elections elsewhere. For instance a person might be opposed to abortion (a very very small minority in Australia) and might vote for a Christian/Right Wing party candidate - but they are considered fringe dwellers and most dismiss them.

Terror - Well, we had the Bali bombings (which most consider to be the closest (touch wood) Australia has gotten to a direct attack on us - during which an old friend of mine was killed - so I don't have any sympathy) - In fact it tends to harden opinion the other way. A bomb was exploded outside the Australian Embassy during the last election campaign - the Labor Party (which wants all Australian troops out of Iraq (since a huge majority of the country opposed our involvement)) got a boost. People of many stripes feel that Australia (more especially our PM Howard and George Bush) is far too close to the US, and we should adopt our own foreign policy and not be dictated to by Washington. But we got a free-trade deal out of it so.

Just to show how important "rear pocket" issues matter here is rundown of the major issues of each federal election since 1993

1993 - Lib propose Goods and Services Tax - Libs lose

1996 - PM Keating unpopular - economy tanking - deficit sky-high - Labor been in power too long (13 years)

1998 - Libs proposed GST again AND privatising Government owned telco. - Government lose based on votes - but massive majority saves them

2001 - Post 9/11 - Immigration

2004 - INTEREST RATES!!! The most ridiculous scare campaign I have ever seen. Libs say they keep rates down - Libs win.

[Platypus]

Fundamentals of Aussie politics:

Economics has always been king.

Economics will always be king.

If the Libs lose the next election, it will be for these reasons:

1. The economy isn't doing as stunningly well as it has been
2. People are sick of them
3. Labor actually stop being completely worthless
4. People want change in social policy
5. People want change in foreign policy

I think the majority of Australians don't actually want the coalition anymore. It's just that the alternative is useless and there's a bit of a feeling of 'don't rock the boat' regarding the economy, which has been performing exceptionally well for the last decade.

Also, I think many people are quite happy with the split between state and federal governments; federal dealing with defence, foreign and economic issues (which most people are to the center-right on) and state dealing with more social issues, like healthcare and education. Of course there are definate areas of crossover, but generally aussies like moderate left social policies and moderate right economic and foreign policies, so the status quo is acceptable to them.

Also, I don't think all that many people are actually pissed of with the coalition re:foreign policy at all. I think they are pissed off about Iraq. Without it, i'm sure there would be significant support for their foreign policy, and the ALP would do almost exactly the same stuff anyway.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Agreed.

[Platypus]

http://www.theage.com.au/news/shaun-carney/home-sweet-home/2006/08/04/1154198328843.html

A good analysis of what most Australian swing-voters are interested in when voting.

[Platypus]

Don chipp's dead.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One of the true originals of Australian politics.