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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | |-+  Swing and Trend maps for each year
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Author Topic: Swing and Trend maps for each year  (Read 1879 times)
Nym90
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« on: August 24, 2006, 11:04:33 pm »
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2004 Swing



2004 Trend



2000 Swing



2000 Trend



1996 Swing



1996 Trend



1992 Swing



1992 Trend



1988 Swing



1988 Trend



More to come as time permits, stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel.
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Nym90
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2006, 09:36:23 am »
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1984 Swing



1984 Trend



1980 Swing



1980 Trend



1976 Swing



1976 Trend



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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2006, 09:58:41 am »
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1976 Swing


Nice. Smiley
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2006, 10:57:42 am »
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Illinois has trended Democratic every year since (including) 1980.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2006, 11:02:59 am »
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Illinois has trended Democratic every year since (including) 1980.

expalin the differences between 'swing' and 'trend'
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« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2006, 11:07:40 am »
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Illinois has trended Democratic every year since (including) 1980.

expalin the differences between 'swing' and 'trend'

Swing is net difference of the two party vote from one election to the next. Trend is the state's swing minus the national swing. For example, if the nation swung 8% Republican and Texas swung 12% Republican, Texas's trend would be 4% Republican.
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"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
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Senator-elect Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2006, 11:38:13 am »
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Of course an election after a landslide like '72 or '84 would lead to some pretty serious "adjustement"
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Nym90
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« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2006, 11:32:47 pm »
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1972 Swing



1972 Trend



1968 Swing



1968 Trend



1964 Swing



1964 Trend



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Nym90
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2006, 09:22:37 am »
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1960 Swing



1960 Trend



1956 Swing



1956 Trend



1952 Swing



1952 Trend

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Nym90
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« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2006, 11:42:49 am »
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1948 Swing



1948 Trend



1944 Swing



1944 Trend



1940 Swing



1940 Trend


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Nym90
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« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2006, 09:59:35 pm »
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1936 Swing



1936 Trend



1932 Swing



1932 Trend



1928 Swing



1928 Trend

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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2006, 08:56:08 am »
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NJ swinging GOP in 2004, showing 2002 really messed up the Dems.
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2006, 07:31:29 pm »
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Nym90, this is great.  Are you going to go all the way back to 1824?

Another thing that I'd be really interested in seeing at some point is a red vs. blue map for each election *relative to the national average*, so that you see a roughly equal number of "red" and "blue" states in each election.  If anyone wants to do that, I've be very interested.
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2006, 08:38:30 pm »
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Another thing that I'd be really interested in seeing at some point is a red vs. blue map for each election *relative to the national average*, so that you see a roughly equal number of "red" and "blue" states in each election.  If anyone wants to do that, I've be very interested.
It would be interesting to see the percentage of elections that a particular state trended red or blue (red shift?)
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Nym90
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« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2006, 12:17:08 am »
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Nym90, this is great.  Are you going to go all the way back to 1824?

Another thing that I'd be really interested in seeing at some point is a red vs. blue map for each election *relative to the national average*, so that you see a roughly equal number of "red" and "blue" states in each election.  If anyone wants to do that, I've be very interested.


For now just 1896, since that's as far back as Dave has Swing/Trend data available.

And "Trend" is exactly what you are talking about with your second question. Swing is simply the change in each state from one election to the next, while Trend is the difference between the national swing and the state swing (thus there will always be a roughly even split in the states that trend each way in each election).
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Nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2006, 12:35:43 am »
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1924 Swing



1924 Trend



1920 Swing



1920 Trend



1916 Swing



1916 Trend



1912 Swing



1912 Trend

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2006, 01:51:11 pm »
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And "Trend" is exactly what you are talking about with your second question. Swing is simply the change in each state from one election to the next, while Trend is the difference between the national swing and the state swing (thus there will always be a roughly even split in the states that trend each way in each election).

Oh, sorry, I think my wording was off.  What I really meant was, a red vs. blue map that shows the percentage of the vote in each state relative to the national average.  Not the year-to-year swing relative to the national average.  So, for example, in 2004, you'd have Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio for Kerry because he did better there than he did in the national popular vote.  But everything else would be the same.  Just so you can see "these are the states that were more Democratic or more Republican than average" even in landslide years.  You already get that a little in the different shadings of the maps in the Atlas, but it's not convenient for comparing different years and so forth.
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Nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2006, 04:43:52 pm »
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1908 Swing



1908 Trend



1904 Swing



1904 Trend



1900 Swing



1900 Trend




1896 Swing



1896 Trend

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Nym90
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« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2006, 04:48:23 pm »
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And "Trend" is exactly what you are talking about with your second question. Swing is simply the change in each state from one election to the next, while Trend is the difference between the national swing and the state swing (thus there will always be a roughly even split in the states that trend each way in each election).

Oh, sorry, I think my wording was off.  What I really meant was, a red vs. blue map that shows the percentage of the vote in each state relative to the national average.  Not the year-to-year swing relative to the national average.  So, for example, in 2004, you'd have Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio for Kerry because he did better there than he did in the national popular vote.  But everything else would be the same.  Just so you can see "these are the states that were more Democratic or more Republican than average" even in landslide years.  You already get that a little in the different shadings of the maps in the Atlas, but it's not convenient for comparing different years and so forth.


Oh sure. I was planning to do that as my next project.
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