1912: No Roosevelt

[Rob]

Despite his immense popularity and strong support from progressive Republicans, TR decides not to challenge President Taft for the Republican nomination. Although deeply critical of his former friend's administration, he offers a tepid endorsement and departs the US for an international tour in 1912. His reasoning- "Will is going to take a terrific beating", and the nomination will be his for the taking in 1916.

The Democrats nominate Governor Woodrow Wilson on a platform that combines the obligatory Democratic support for states' rights with progressive ideas like the graduated income tax; the Socialist Party nominates the legendary Eugene Debs for the fourth time.

As the campaign heats up, voter enthusiasm is increasingly centered on Debs, who lays claim to being the only true progressive in the race. He assails Taft as an out-of-touch reactionary and mocks Wilson as an opportunist for his belated support of leftist policies. Although most prominent Roosevelt Republicans (including Hiram Johnson of California) have reluctantly endorsed Taft, a great deal of TR's grassroots support seems to be going to Debs. The nation waits impatiently for the results...

Wilson wins decisively, with 45 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Taft and a surprisingly strong 17 percent for Debs. The electoral vote is 327-173, with Debs carrying five states for 31 electoral votes. The exultant candidate claims a moral victory, and looks forward to a greater share of the vote in 1916.

You know what to do... say who you'd vote for, post maps and scenarios of how you think the race would unfold, etc.

And I vote for Debs, of course.

[minionofmidas]

I would vote for Debs, who might just about conceivably steal a state or two. Taft would win, but not by much.

[Colin]

Debs would probably not get much more than he did in OTL unless he either moderates or there is a big backlash against the major parties. 6%-10% was his upper threshold of the popular vote. 1912 itself was even a rather fluke year as after that, into the 1920's, the Socialist Party continued with a steady 2.5%-3% of the popular vote.

[Dr. Cynic]

Without TR, I would vote for Debs.

[Speed of Sound]

Debs all the way! A shame theres no modern day Debs. The closest we get is Bernie Sanders.

[NewFederalist]

I don't believe Debs would carry any states. Most of the TR vote would have gone to Taft giving him a slim margin of victory. I still would have voted for Chafin.

[Colin]

Debs all the way! A shame theres no modern day Debs. The closest we get is Bernie Sanders.

Probably some of the Democratic Party is near Debs since besides all the death to Capitalism one day we will live in a Socialist utopia stuff his policies seem rather mainstream and harmless nowadays.

[Rob]

I don't believe Debs would carry any states. Most of the TR vote would have gone to Taft giving him a slim margin of victory. I still would have voted for Chafin.

Looking back at my orignial post, I do think that I overestimated the movement of TR voters to Debs. A more reasonable showing would be this:

Wilson wins with 45 percent of the popular vote to 40 percent for Taft and 13 percent for Debs; the electoral vote is 303-221-7. Debs wins pluralities in Nevada and Montana, while running second in a number of other states (including Minnesota and Wisconsin). Altogether a fantastic showing for the third party, which in OTL was badly hurt by Roosevelt's candidacy (the Progressives "stole" many Socialist ideas for their platform).

[Colin]

Well I wouldn't say that they stole Socialist ideas. Progressive thought basically insisted that in order to keep America from slipping into Socialism and Communism that moderate reforms needed to be put in place to keep popular dissent from rising in the form of either socialist movements or revolution.

[NewFederalist]

Rob- Take a look at 1924. LaFollette carried only his home state and was the Progressive nominee as well as endorsed by the Socialists. I still don't see Debs carrying any states in 1912. His appeal was not agrarian but more industrial so Montana and Nevada just don't fit.

[Lincoln Republican]

Taft makes it much closer, but Wilson still wins.

Wilson             277
Taft                 164
Debs                 90

[Rob]

Well I wouldn't say that they stole Socialist ideas.

They adopted a number of Socialist policies (for example, state ownership of the railroads), and it was widely recognized at the time that they were siphoning votes from Debs. That said, I realize that the bulk of TR's support came from middle-class reformers and prosperous farmers- the "better people", not likely to vote for a fighting champion of the proles like Debs. That's why I have so many states switching to Taft, and the bulk of Teddy's popular vote.

But TR's support in the west would have broken strongly for Debs, imo. Scruffy ranchers and the like were his base out on the frontier.

Rob- Take a look at 1924. LaFollette carried only his home state and was the Progressive nominee as well as endorsed by the Socialists. I still don't see Debs carrying any states in 1912. His appeal was not agrarian but more industrial so Montana and Nevada just don't fit.

Actually, he ran best in rural states- his strongest support was among miners and struggling farmers. His best state in the nation was Oklahoma; the four counties he carried (one in Kansas, one in North Dakota, two in Minnesota) were agricultural.

[Lincoln Republican]

Another outcome, though impossible, where all of Roosevelt's votes go to Debs

Wilson          373
Debs            150
Taft                  8

[minionofmidas]

Rob- Take a look at 1924. LaFollette carried only his home state and was the Progressive nominee as well as endorsed by the Socialists. I still don't see Debs carrying any states in 1912. His appeal was not agrarian but more industrial so Montana and Nevada just don't fit.

The difference is that that was in 1924, not 1912, a time of forebodings of major crisis and leftwing electoral successes all over the world.

[Bdub]

Taft

[RBH]

If Roosevelt leaves, his support probably splits 55/25/20 to Taft, Wilson, and Debs.

With a unique splits for California and South Dakota (where Taft was not on the ballot and therefore I shift some Wilson support to Taft, while using the same method to distribute Roosevelt's support)

The popular vote is 48-39 for Wilson, the Electoral college is 412-119 for Wilson.

The map:

[DWPerry]

I think Wilson wins, but I would vote for a "4th party?!", possibly Prohibition Party candidate Eugene Chafin.