Lowest support for (SPD+CDU+CSU) ever!

[minionofmidas]

According to Forsa, if an election were held today, we get the following result:
CDU/CSU 30%
SPD 29%
FDP 14%
Left.PDS 12%
Greens 10%
other 5%.

[afleitch]

Come on FDP!

[Serenity Now]

Wow, looks like the "two-and-a-half party system" and almost beyond

This has a lot of implications for the coursework I wrote on the German party system (one of my preffered ones btw) last May.

[Serenity Now]

Come on FDP!

Come on SED!

(j/k)

[Tender Branson]

When the grand coaltion ends the term, CDU/CSU and SPD will have 20% each, with the FDP getting 25%, the Greens and Left Party 15% each and others 5%

[minionofmidas]

When the grand coaltion ends the term, CDU/CSU and SPD will have 20% each, with the FDP getting 25%, the Greens and Left Party 15% each and others 5%

If Merkel lasts an entire term.

[Colin]

Holy sh**t!

WOO HOO GO FDP!

14% my God. Is there any reason for that Lewis? The only one I can think of is that they are getting CDU/CSU members who are disaffected with the grand coalition going to the only other right-wing party in the opposition and possibly some voters who see them as the leaders of the opposition and thus vote for them as the main opposition party.

I guess the same could go for why the Greens have 12% as well.

Die Linke's Partei seems to be back to where it started at the beginning of the 2006 campaign.

Well this would be a very interesting result. The problem is this probably has no actual chance of happening.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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How likely is that now? Not very?

[minionofmidas]

14% my God. Is there any reason for that Lewis? The only one I can think of is that they are getting CDU/CSU members who are disaffected with the grand coalition going to the only other right-wing party in the opposition

That's the main reason o/c.

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Doubt that.

One factor though that you gotta remember (about all the minor parties) is, this is among people who know what they'd vote today. There's bound to be lots of disaffected CDU and SPD supporters who're saying they probably wouldn't vote at all, but who would be more energized if there actually was an election coming up.
In other words, were there an election, turnout would be higher than it is for this poll, and CDU and SPD would do better as a result. (Of course, that's the same factor that led to exaggerated CDU poll leads throughout most of the last government's tenure.) In short, this is a poll, not a prediction.

[minionofmidas]

If Merkel lasts an entire term.

How likely is that now? Not very?

Still more than likely o/c. But not set in stone.

[NewFederalist]

How well is the NPD polling? I imagine they are trying to capitalize on immigration fears and so forth.

[minionofmidas]

How well is the NPD polling? I imagine they are trying to capitalize on immigration fears and so forth.

I have no idea. 5% "other" is fairly run-of-the-mill, perhaps a tad above average.

[Colin]

What was the amount of undecideds/don't knows? Do you have a link to the poll?

[minionofmidas]

No. German pollsters aren't good at this stuff... not enough firms in the field, I reckon.

Here's all of Forsa's recent polls though, and the sample size.

[minionofmidas]

Last time the Union polled lower was in march 2000, btw.
At that time, it was
SPD 43%
CDU/CSU 29%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
PDS 7%
other 6%

Also, while 12% for the Left has been reported before - soon after the 2005 election - a higher figure never has been.

[Tender Branson]

The Union is also polling as high as 36% in other polls like the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Infratest-Dimap, while the SPD is generally at 29/30% in all polls. The Left Party is polling from 7-12%, let´s say close to 10%, while the FDP is around 13% and the Greens at 10% too.
We can say that the coalition is hovering around 60%, down from the 70% at the time of the elections and the opposition is at 1/3 of votes and other parties at 5%. The CDU alone, without the CSU would only get close to 25% now What do you think ? Will they break up the coalition when both parties fall below 25% and call for new elections ?

[WMS]

According to Forsa, if an election were held today, we get the following result:
CDU/CSU 30%
SPD 29%
FDP 14%
Left.PDS 12%
Greens 10%
other 5%.

The FDP, the Left.PDS and the Greens...blah.

[NewFederalist]

Shoot zem... shoot zem all! - NPD Manifesto

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to Forsa, if an election were held today, we get the following result:
CDU/CSU 30%
SPD 29%
FDP 14%
Left.PDS 12%
Greens 10%
other 5%.

New poll :

CDU/CSU 30%
SPD 28%
FDP 15%
Greens 10%
Left.PDS 10%
Other parties 7%

[Colin]

I wish they would give vote totals for the "other parties" just to see what there support is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I wish they would give vote totals for the "other parties" just to see what there support is.

Do you really want to know how much the Grey Panthers (a senior citizen's party) or the Animal Rights Party would get at the moment?

Usually, "other parties" aren't seperately listed unless they seem to have a realistic chance of passing the 5% threshold. This means that an individual party has to be polled at at least 3 or 4%. Take the current state election campaign in Mecklenburg for example. The NPD didn't appear in the polls until they were at 3 or 4%. Since then, there appeared in almost every poll.

However, it's safe too assume that right-wing extremist parties are making up a relatively large portion of that 7%... maybe in the range of 2 or 3%.

[Colin]

I wish they would give vote totals for the "other parties" just to see what there support is.

Do you really want to know how much the Grey Panthers (a senior citizen's party) or the Animal Rights Party would get at the moment?

Usually, "other parties" aren't seperately listed unless they seem to have a realistic chance of passing the 5% threshold. This means that an individual party has to be polled at at least 3 or 4%. Take the current state election campaign in Mecklenburg for example. The NPD didn't appear in the polls until they were at 3 or 4%. Since then, there appeared in almost every poll.

However, it's safe too assume that right-wing extremist parties are making up a relatively large portion of that 7%... maybe in the range of 2 or 3%.

Yes I would actually. The Grey Panthers are vitally important to German politics.

I was mostly concerned with the numbers that the Republicans and the NPD are getting since the number, 7%, is higher than it usually is, it's usually around 4-5%.

[angus]

Come on FDP!

inasmuch as I understand them, that's my favorite as well.

Lewis, what's your point?  after sixty years do you suppose von Hayek's ghost is being awakened?

What I do know is that every stock I own except Deutsche Telekom is worth more than I paid for it.  Any business-friendly change in Germany is just fine by me.

[minionofmidas]

Come on FDP!

inasmuch as I understand them, that's my favorite as well.

Lewis, what's your point?  after sixty years do you suppose von Hayek's ghost is being awakened?

What I do know is that every stock I own except Deutsche Telekom is worth more than I paid for it.  Any business-friendly change in Germany is just fine by me.

Not von Hayek's ghost, no.
1848-1933's political ghost - ie, a highly fractured party system - *might* be finally reasserting itself, though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was mostly concerned with the numbers that the Republicans and the NPD are getting since the number, 7%, is higher than it usually is, it's usually around 4-5%.

True. But perhaps it will be back to "normal" next week.