NJ's Next Elected Senator, Bob Menendez

[Eraserhead]

Menendez is poised to become NJ's newly elected Senator in the fall. Kean Jr. has been unable to gain on Menendez's supposed ethics faults and hasn't been able to raise good amounts of money. While the race is in dead heat, the states natural democratic nature will sweep Menendez into office this November. This thread was made mostly to annoy Menendez foes.

....the hell?

can I help you or something?

No I'm just suprised somebody would make a thread as pointless as this. No offense. I actually agree with you (for the most part) on substance but this could have been posted in a lot of other NJ threads.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Menendez is poised to become NJ's newly elected Senator in the fall. Kean Jr. has been unable to gain on Menendez's supposed ethics faults and hasn't been able to raise good amounts of money. While the race is in dead heat, the states natural democratic nature will sweep Menendez into office this November. This thread was made mostly to annoy Menendez foes.

Yes, of course, unable the gain, that's why the last two polls show 7 and 11 point swings.  Wow, too bad he didn't actually make up any ground.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Meet the free of corruption, leading in the polls, next senator of NJ,

TOM KEAN JR.

If you are unwilling to admit the NJ Democrat Machine and Bob Menendez are corrupt, why should we take anything you say seriously?

[DownWithTheLeft]

This thread was made mostly to annoy Menendez foes.

That's called trolling, pal. Board rules tend to frown upon that sort of activity.

As to the thread topic itself, show me Menendez consistently polling ahead of Kean outside the margin of error, and I'll be persuaded to agree with you.

NJ qualifies for being outside the margin of error. NJ polls usually always underestimate the Democrats numbers as like with the governors race and races before that.

Yes, when you show some evidence of this occuring in Senate races, I will be inclined to consider that, and Kean being up 4 and 5 is definetly makes him outside of the margin of error.

When was the last time a NJ GOP member led a senate poll?
1972, when they won

And considering w/the new ones you can throw out the old Rasmussen and FDU, Kean has one 3 out 5, Conan you obviously have something wrong w/u, this goes beyond partisan bias.

[MarkWarner08]

New Jersey usually has ridiculous numbers of undecideds which break en mass at the end, many times for the Democrat. There's no way to predict who they'll break for this year.

Congrats on 15000!

[Conan]

Meet the free of corruption, leading in the polls, next senator of NJ,

TOM KEAN JR.

If you are unwilling to admit the NJ Democrat Machine and Bob Menendez are corrupt, why should we take anything you say seriously?

Kean is not leading in the polls. Anyhow I know there are corrupt democrats like Sharpe James. Every state has a machine. I do not know if Menendez is corrupt or not. I know he will win though. I also know there are better candidates too. Besides from that, you should take me seriously because my points are based on fact and educated.

[DownWithTheLeft]

No one can be taken seriously if they believe Corzine isn't corrupt and Menendez is part of the corrupt machine.  Kean is leading in the polls:

FDU:
Last month: down 3
This month: up 4

Rasmussen:
Last month: down 6
This month: up 5

My only question is will Bob Menendez be replaced on the ballot in another squeaky Democrat move?

[Conan]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

[Conan]

So whos winning? Menendez......
You can allege Menendez is corrupt but Corzine definately is not.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

Take the most recent 5 (excluding the erratic Zogby and the now not needed old FDU and Rasmussen polls) that is a 3 out of 5 for Kean.  And the point more is, polls, unlike what Olawankandi says, don't mean much.  What means something is how corrupt NJ Dems are how many new scandals emerge each day, how much better Bush did in 04', and do I have to go on?  I have stated in previous comments at least 25 reasons why Tom Kean Jr. will win.  But you have nothing but worthless polls to suggest Menendez will win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You also left off the new Rasmussen behind the wall that shows an 11 point swing.

[Conan]

Your so desperate, it is so funny to think youd win here.

[Conan]

You also left off the new Rasmussen behind the wall that shows an 11 point swing.

Have yet to see the Rasmussen. Thank you for letting me know though. I shall look for it now.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Your so desperate, it is so funny to think youd win here.

LOL
I'm desperate yet I have a bounty of reasons why Kean will win, all you have a summary of old polls and calling me "desperate"

that is hilarious

[DownWithTheLeft]

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/31/93529/7345

Here's someone talking about the poll, it's not the most reliable source, but they've been right about polls behind the wall before.

[Conan]

Anyone have the numbers? Like Kean 44, Menendez 39 or somthing?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Anyone have the numbers? Like Kean 44, Menendez 39 or somthing?

That's what I'd guess, I doubt it's 49-44, that's for sure, cause if it's that this race is pretty much done.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Menendez will win the debates just like Salazar did in 2004 and beat Kean Jr.  Salazar was in a similar situation in 2004, he was behind in the summer to Coors in polls but he pulled it out at the end on his debate strategy and I think Menendez will do the same.

[Eraserhead]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

Take the most recent 5 (excluding the erratic Zogby and the now not needed old FDU and Rasmussen polls) that is a 3 out of 5 for Kean.  And the point more is, polls, unlike what Olawankandi says, don't mean much.  What means something is how corrupt NJ Dems are how many new scandals emerge each day, how much better Bush did in 04', and do I have to go on?  I have stated in previous comments at least 25 reasons why Tom Kean Jr. will win.  But you have nothing but worthless polls to suggest Menendez will win.

Suddenly the polls don't matter. Kean better rack up a serious lead in several polls or the best he'll be able to hope for will be a janitorial position at McDonalds by the time the NJ Democratic machine gets through with him.

[Conan]

I think Menendez will win the debates just like Salazar did in 2004 and beat Kean Jr.  Salazar was in a similar situation in 2004, he was behind in the summer to Coors in polls but he pulled it out at the end on his debate strategy and I think Menendez will do the same.

Kean is known for his abilitiy in debates to look like he wants to lose pretty much. He is just terrible in debates.

[Conan]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

Take the most recent 5 (excluding the erratic Zogby and the now not needed old FDU and Rasmussen polls) that is a 3 out of 5 for Kean.  And the point more is, polls, unlike what Olawankandi says, don't mean much.  What means something is how corrupt NJ Dems are how many new scandals emerge each day, how much better Bush did in 04', and do I have to go on?  I have stated in previous comments at least 25 reasons why Tom Kean Jr. will win.  But you have nothing but worthless polls to suggest Menendez will win.

Suddenly the polls don't matter. Kean better rack up a serious lead in several polls or the best he'll be able to hope for will be a janitorial position at McDonalds by the time the NJ Democratic machine gets through with him.

Actually he'll just be a state senator again. He hasnt resigned or anything and he just has to give up that office if he wins. Anyway he comes from a rich family whos never held real jobs so McDonalds isnt a possibility for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He only ran on his father's name, and Kean isn't that good as a name like Casey.

[Smash255]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

Take the most recent 5 (excluding the erratic Zogby and the now not needed old FDU and Rasmussen polls) that is a 3 out of 5 for Kean.  And the point more is, polls, unlike what Olawankandi says, don't mean much.  What means something is how corrupt NJ Dems are how many new scandals emerge each day, how much better Bush did in 04', and do I have to go on?  I have stated in previous comments at least 25 reasons why Tom Kean Jr. will win.  But you have nothing but worthless polls to suggest Menendez will win.

The state has constantly polled more GOP than dem.  Undecideds have traditionally swung strongly for Dems.  This is true EVERY SINGLE TIME the GOP candidate is well known.  And well Kean is well known.  On top of that Bush did better in 04 due to his 9/11 bounce.  A bounce long gone.  his numbers in new Jersey are absolutley abysmal, and have been hovering around the 30% mark to low 30's for some time now.  The whole corruption thing is a bit silly, their has been only one thing that can be connected to Menendez, and it really has nothing to do with him.  Someone he supported turned out to have some corruption issues, but it had nothing to do with him directly, nor has anything else.

[Conan]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

Take the most recent 5 (excluding the erratic Zogby and the now not needed old FDU and Rasmussen polls) that is a 3 out of 5 for Kean.  And the point more is, polls, unlike what Olawankandi says, don't mean much.  What means something is how corrupt NJ Dems are how many new scandals emerge each day, how much better Bush did in 04', and do I have to go on?  I have stated in previous comments at least 25 reasons why Tom Kean Jr. will win.  But you have nothing but worthless polls to suggest Menendez will win.

The state has cponstantly polled more GOP than dem.  Undecideds have traditionally swung strongly for Dems.  This is true EVERY SINGLE TIME the GOP candidate is well known.  And well Kean is well known.  On top of that Bush did bteter in 04 due to his 9/11 bounce.  A boubnce long gone.  his numbers in new Jersey are absolutley abysmal, and have been hovering around the 30% mark to low 30's for some time now.  The whole corruption thing is a bit silly, their has been only one thing that can be connected to Menendez, and it really has nothing to do with him.  Someone he supported turned out to have some corruption issues, but it had nothing to do with him directly, nor has anything else.

dont you mean more Dem then gop?

[Smash255]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

Take the most recent 5 (excluding the erratic Zogby and the now not needed old FDU and Rasmussen polls) that is a 3 out of 5 for Kean.  And the point more is, polls, unlike what Olawankandi says, don't mean much.  What means something is how corrupt NJ Dems are how many new scandals emerge each day, how much better Bush did in 04', and do I have to go on?  I have stated in previous comments at least 25 reasons why Tom Kean Jr. will win.  But you have nothing but worthless polls to suggest Menendez will win.

The state has cponstantly polled more GOP than dem.  Undecideds have traditionally swung strongly for Dems.  This is true EVERY SINGLE TIME the GOP candidate is well known.  And well Kean is well known.  On top of that Bush did bteter in 04 due to his 9/11 bounce.  A boubnce long gone.  his numbers in new Jersey are absolutley abysmal, and have been hovering around the 30% mark to low 30's for some time now.  The whole corruption thing is a bit silly, their has been only one thing that can be connected to Menendez, and it really has nothing to do with him.  Someone he supported turned out to have some corruption issues, but it had nothing to do with him directly, nor has anything else.

dont you mean more Dem then gop?

No, the polls are more GOP friendly than the actual results.  Let me fix those typos, damn