This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Blair]

She has seen her stock rise from doing 'well' at business questions in Parliament; which is a weekly session where MPs essentially argue about what Parliament is doing- by well I mean she has had some gags about the SNP, and she does a rather pious 'well shall not be lectured by [insert person attacking the Governments latest disaster]' speech which gets Tories who've felt ashamed of themselves to feel slightly better.

I would note she has not had a big job for a while; she was Defence Sec for a bit in 2019, but has since been a cabinet office minister, trade minister (which lead to the first case of Ministers arguing which each other during a parliamentary question time!) and then Leader of the House.

The problem facing the Conservatives is that they still think the problem is Sunak- it is not!

It is the public realm and the terrible state of the economy; Sunak is a relatively skilled politician on paper and was seen (rightly!) as an upgrade on both Boris & Truss- yet he has still managed to crash the boat through a combination of poor decisions, an erratic political strategy and a belief in tax cuts.

[icc]

Sunak is a relatively skilled politician on paper and was seen (rightly!) as an upgrade on both Boris & Truss- yet he has still managed to crash the boat through a combination of poor decisions, an erratic political strategy and a belief in tax cuts.

Whilst agreeing with much of your post, let’s not be silly here.

Sunak is an above average administrator, but he is a truly appalling politician. Among those who have achieved high office he is almost uniquely unskilled. Even Truss, whilst making herself incredibly unpopular at large, cultivated a following amongst a small segment of the population (and rather larger segment of the commentators). Sunak’s political judgement is almost unbelievably bad when you consider the heights he has risen to.

[MacShimidh]

Sunak is a relatively skilled politician on paper and was seen (rightly!) as an upgrade on both Boris & Truss- yet he has still managed to crash the boat through a combination of poor decisions, an erratic political strategy and a belief in tax cuts.

Whilst agreeing with much of your post, let’s not be silly here.

Sunak is an above average administrator, but he is a truly appalling politician. Among those who have achieved high office he is almost uniquely unskilled. Even Truss, whilst making herself incredibly unpopular at large, cultivated a following amongst a small segment of the population (and rather larger segment of the commentators). Sunak’s political judgement is almost unbelievably bad when you consider the heights he has risen to.

To add to this, it strikes me that Sunak’s biggest folly is that he has never figured out whether he wants to be the adult in the room or a populist firebrand. Instead he has tried to walk on both sides of the road, thereby doing neither effectively and pissing off everyone in the process.

[Coldstream]

Let’s be honest, Sunak was chosen to be Chancellor because Johnson thought he was completely unthreatening - and he became PM because that allowed him to be right place right time when Johnson then Truss destroyed themselves (events he was largely a spectator to). He may not be the worst, but he’s not very good.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is a bit of a Being There scenario, I agree.

[Blair]

Sunak is a relatively skilled politician on paper and was seen (rightly!) as an upgrade on both Boris & Truss- yet he has still managed to crash the boat through a combination of poor decisions, an erratic political strategy and a belief in tax cuts.

Whilst agreeing with much of your post, let’s not be silly here.

Sunak is an above average administrator, but he is a truly appalling politician. Among those who have achieved high office he is almost uniquely unskilled. Even Truss, whilst making herself incredibly unpopular at large, cultivated a following amongst a small segment of the population (and rather larger segment of the commentators). Sunak’s political judgement is almost unbelievably bad when you consider the heights he has risen to.

Ha I did say on paper! But yes the fact he's failed to use his strengths since 2022 is a sign of how bad a political operator he is.

Sunak is a relatively skilled politician on paper and was seen (rightly!) as an upgrade on both Boris & Truss- yet he has still managed to crash the boat through a combination of poor decisions, an erratic political strategy and a belief in tax cuts.

Whilst agreeing with much of your post, let’s not be silly here.

Sunak is an above average administrator, but he is a truly appalling politician. Among those who have achieved high office he is almost uniquely unskilled. Even Truss, whilst making herself incredibly unpopular at large, cultivated a following amongst a small segment of the population (and rather larger segment of the commentators). Sunak’s political judgement is almost unbelievably bad when you consider the heights he has risen to.

To add to this, it strikes me that Sunak’s biggest folly is that he has never figured out whether he wants to be the adult in the room or a populist firebrand. Instead he has tried to walk on both sides of the road, thereby doing neither effectively and pissing off everyone in the process.

Yes the problem he has is that unlike Blair, Brown, Cameron & May (and even Truss) he has no idea what his political project or ideology is- it doesn't help that he has never actually won a competitive election. His seat was ultra safe in 2015, he got appointed CX for the reasons above, lost in 2022 and fall back into the leadership.

It's why he basically seems to jump on whatever the advisers tell him to do; but does it in such an insincere and hackneyed way. The whole anti-HS2 campaign, the anti-Net Zero, then the pivot to the 'protect our women' stuff and now the extremism stuff- the best example is the Rwanda Scheme which we know he opposed! But the Australians have no doubt told him it will work because something something John Howard...

[TheTide]

It's why he basically seems to jump on whatever the advisers tell him to do; but does it in such an insincere and hackneyed way. The whole anti-HS2 campaign, the anti-Net Zero, then the pivot to the 'protect our women' stuff and now the extremism stuff- the best example is the Rwanda Scheme which we know he opposed! But the Australians have no doubt told him it will work because something something John Howard...

In the case of Howard the issue of boats was suddenly thrust into the spotlight just a couple of months before the 2001 election and thus it didn't come across (at least not to floating voters, ahem) as particularly opportunistic.

Maybe Sunak would be doing better (as far as his own party's prospects are concerned) if he had entered office as an anti-wokeist rather than as a 'safe pair of hands'.     

[AustralianSwingVoter]

But the Australians have no doubt told him it will work because something something John Howard...

All that's missing is lying about refugees throwing children overboard and more schoolboy insults.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's why he basically seems to jump on whatever the advisers tell him to do; but does it in such an insincere and hackneyed way. The whole anti-HS2 campaign, the anti-Net Zero, then the pivot to the 'protect our women' stuff and now the extremism stuff- the best example is the Rwanda Scheme which we know he opposed! But the Australians have no doubt told him it will work because something something John Howard...

In the case of Howard the issue of boats was suddenly thrust into the spotlight just a couple of months before the 2001 election and thus it didn't come across (at least not to floating voters, ahem) as particularly opportunistic.

Maybe Sunak would be doing better (as far as his own party's prospects are concerned) if he had entered office as an anti-wokeist rather than as a 'safe pair of hands'.    

Or he could have stuck to the latter - its maybe no coincidence that one of his few genuine poll bumps (upwards, that is) was after the Windsor agreement in early 2023.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Sunak is a relatively skilled politician on paper and was seen (rightly!) as an upgrade on both Boris & Truss- yet he has still managed to crash the boat through a combination of poor decisions, an erratic political strategy and a belief in tax cuts.

Whilst agreeing with much of your post, let’s not be silly here.

Sunak is an above average administrator, but he is a truly appalling politician. Among those who have achieved high office he is almost uniquely unskilled. Even Truss, whilst making herself incredibly unpopular at large, cultivated a following amongst a small segment of the population (and rather larger segment of the commentators). Sunak’s political judgement is almost unbelievably bad when you consider the heights he has risen to.

To add to this, it strikes me that Sunak’s biggest folly is that he has never figured out whether he wants to be the adult in the room or a populist firebrand. Instead he has tried to walk on both sides of the road, thereby doing neither effectively and pissing off everyone in the process.

Yes the problem he has is that unlike Blair, Brown, Cameron & May (and even Truss) he has no idea what his political project or ideology is- it doesn't help that he has never actually won a competitive election. His seat was ultra safe in 2015, he got appointed CX for the reasons above, lost in 2022 and fall back into the leadership.

It's why he basically seems to jump on whatever the advisers tell him to do; but does it in such an insincere and hackneyed way. The whole anti-HS2 campaign, the anti-Net Zero, then the pivot to the 'protect our women' stuff and now the extremism stuff- the best example is the Rwanda Scheme which we know he opposed! But the Australians have no doubt told him it will work because something something John Howard...

I don't think the problem is that he lacks an ideology. The problem is that ideologically he has no problem with the state of the country right now and the things that he wants to change are either not things that a significant proportion of the electorate prioritised or they are deeply deeply unpopular.

FWIW, I don't think he's that great an administrator either. He's perfectly competent at a Minister of State level, but he's never run a delivery department and it's fairly clear that if he had his star would have shone much less brightly.

[TheTide]

Reports that 40 letters (out of the required 53) have now been sent in. Worth noting that there is yet to be a Tory Prime Minister removed via a direct vote of MPs. If they move then they will have to make sure it succeeds, which probably requires assurance from a cabinet minister or two to resign. That said, I could see Sunak calling it day if he has well over 100 MPs voting against him. May and Boris both stumbled on for a few more months/weeks when they had such scenarios, but Sunak isn't quite as stubborn as the former or quite as egotistical as the latter.

[CumbrianLefty]

Alternatively though, in this case "a few more months" would actually be enough to get him to a GE - which wasn't a realistic option for either May or Johnson.

[Torrain]

The government has put MPs on a one-line whip, and essentially given them a pass until after the Easter break. Per Sky, this was announced at the 1922 last night, just before the PM spoke, to soften the mood.

They won’t take up their ‘emergency’ Rwanda legislation for another round of votes until at least April 15th now. Per Andrea Leadsom, the government’s line is that this is actually Labour’s fault, somehow. Idk

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, it is Labour's fault for not just waving the legislation through. Really.

[TheTide]

Sir Simon Clarke (who has become the defacto leader of the anti-Sunak faction in the Parliamentary Tory Party) claims that only "a couple" more letters are needed for a confidence vote. Actually, the way he puts it is that "the PM will be gone", indicating that he's confident that Sunak would lose.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rishi-sunak-letters-no-confidence-simon-clarke/

If his calculations are accurate then look for Sir Graham Brady to make a statement in about 24 hours from now. The confidence vote in BoJo took place on a Monday.

[YL]

Sir Simon Clarke (who has become the defacto leader of the anti-Sunak faction in the Parliamentary Tory Party) claims that only "a couple" more letters are needed for a confidence vote. Actually, the way he puts it is that "the PM will be gone", indicating that he's confident that Sunak would lose.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rishi-sunak-letters-no-confidence-simon-clarke/

If his calculations are accurate then look for Sir Graham Brady to make a statement in about 24 hours from now. The confidence vote in BoJo took place on a Monday.

I am a bit sceptical — why have so few gone public, and how would Clarke know the figure so accurately — but we will see.

[Pericles]

If anything Clarke saying this kind of stuff suggests that not many letters have been submitted at all. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed.

[TheTide]

Sir Simon Clarke (who has become the defacto leader of the anti-Sunak faction in the Parliamentary Tory Party) claims that only "a couple" more letters are needed for a confidence vote. Actually, the way he puts it is that "the PM will be gone", indicating that he's confident that Sunak would lose.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rishi-sunak-letters-no-confidence-simon-clarke/

If his calculations are accurate then look for Sir Graham Brady to make a statement in about 24 hours from now. The confidence vote in BoJo took place on a Monday.

I am a bit sceptical — why have so few gone public, and how would Clarke know the figure so accurately — but we will see.

There was only small number who explicitly called on Truss to resign, around a dozen or so IIRC. I suppose in that case it was more obvious that she had to go, and so many MPs probably felt that publicly calling for her to go was like punching a boxer after the boxer had already been knocked out.

If anything Clarke saying this kind of stuff suggests that not many letters have been submitted at all. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed.

Not exactly unusual. I think another source had the number at around 40 a week or two ago.

[Blair]

I actually think the labour method of challenging a sitting leader is better- require a named challenger to get

• number of signatures and make a public challenge that then goes to the membership.

It not only makes it harder but also focuses on who would actually replace them; under the Tory rules I think virtually every Labour leader would have have faced a VonC as it’s such a small threshold.

[CumbrianLefty]

Arguably at this point Sunak should be hoping for a VONC to go ahead soon - if it is delayed until after the probably bad May election results, the likelihood surely increases that he would actually lose it.

[LabourJersey]

Would calling for a new election (late May/early June perhaps) "stop the clock" on a possible VoNC?

Or is the process of going thru a VoNC completely separate from the dissolution of Parliament?

[Pericles]

Would calling for a new election (late May/early June perhaps) "stop the clock" on a possible VoNC?

Or is the process of going thru a VoNC completely separate from the dissolution of Parliament?

I'm not sure if it's the same in the UK, but in Australia their Labor Party once pulled off a leadership coup on the day the election was called. The Prime Minister actually called the 1983 snap election hoping to run against the weaker Labor leader, but Labor made the change faster than he expected and then won the election comfortably.

[IceAgeComing]

Would calling for a new election (late May/early June perhaps) "stop the clock" on a possible VoNC?

Or is the process of going thru a VoNC completely separate from the dissolution of Parliament?

So its complicated.

The Vote of No Confidence process requires the existance of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs. When parliament is dissolved then people are no longer MPs automatically which may automatically dissolve that committee and end the term of the chair; so there may be no one present to call an election. In any case it would require Conservatives to have a vote and I suspect mid-election no one would want that for quite obvious reasons - so people publicly calling for it would probably find themselves losing Conservative backing in the election at that point.

However Lascelles Principles (which guide the thinking of the palace around requests to dissolve) include a provision that if the palace think there's someone else that could command the confidence of the house they would decline a dissolution. This is designed for Hung Parliament situations where confidence votes might naturally lead to government changing (the precedent on this was the King/Byng affair in Canada which admittedly did not end well - but it is an example of testing parliament before an early election) but its believed that if Sunak went to the palace between the VoNC being announced and it being held the Palace would decline until the vote happens: as then the question would be around if the Conservative Party would choose someone new to command the confidence of the House. if he was confirmed in the party then that wouldn't be a problem even if he won by one vote as the assumption would be that the party would unite around him until proven otherwise. I guess there's theoretically a window in the wash-up period (the days between the PM calling an election and parliament formally being prorogued; where basically the big two parties hash out deals on what legislation both agree should get through parliament before the election, and what needs to be dropped) where they could change leader; but then I wonder if the Palace would delay accepting the PMs resignation until after an election as he'd be a caretaker in any case.

So to summarise: he probably has the power to pre-empt a confidence vote if they haven't gotten to the formal point of triggering it yet (as at that point he would theoretically be the only person that could command the confidence of the house; as there is no other rival leader or official challenge) and that calling of an election would stall procedings; while if Brady announced a Confidence Vote tomorrow he could not go to the palace immediately after and call an election because his position as the only person that could govern with the confidence of the house is challenged.

[Torrain]

Robert Halfon has resigned from government (same day as Heappey, as part of a mini reshuffle), and announced his retirement as an MP.

Halfon's seat of Harlow follows a fairly standard pattern for swing seats (flips Tory in 1983, back to Labour in 1997, and then over to the Tories in 2010), and remained somewhat marginal until 2019, when he won a 14k majority. The redrawn Harlow looks like it'll be a closer race next time around - if you believe Electoral Calculus, it's got a fair chance of going Labour.

[TheTide]

Halfon is someone who has tried to position himself as some kind of maverick, suggesting that the Tories should rename themselves as the Worker's Party or something like that. Galloway got there first.