This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If one thing has become clearer and clearer over time, it is that this thread was very aptly named. It is all getting a little bit ridiculous.

[Blair]

My theory about the chicken run is that you really need to be well known & have a purpose for the party for it work; aka if Rachel Reeves had theoretically lost her seat in the boundary changes and tried to run in say London she would be doing it on a 'I need a seat to be chancellor'; in the same way Boris would have likely been successful if he had tried 'I want to remain as an MP after 2024'... but when junior ranking ministers try it and are running in different parts of the country it will fail.

It is even funnier in this case as Holden was flouted as being in line for a promotion; he is a former SPAD and CCHQ worker and these sort of people are always popular when a party is in this stage in power; there's a reason Labour's leadership race in 2010 was four New Labour SPADs and Dianne Abbott.

[JimJamUK]

Not to state the bleeding obvious, but the number of Conservative MPs attempting chicken runs from the #RedWall suggests even they know the jig is up. I mean, Richard Holden could easily follow the most Conservative part of his constituency into the enlarged Bishop Auckland constituency which is notionally ‘safe’ Conservative, but instead he’s trying to be selected 100 miles or so away.

[Torrain]

Lee Anderson has given a written apology to a junior doctor, and contributed £1870 to the BMA strike fund, after making misleading statements about him online.

Thoughts and prayers with the CCHQ spokesman who'll have to explain with a straight face tomorrow why the Conservative Vice-Chairman is being forced to make four-figure financial donations to trade unions currently striking against the government, to prevent legal action being brought by a man named Dr Dolphin.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Some of the chicken runners will probably be found a seat at the last moment by finding an old duffer who will agree to retire. Then again, that's the sort of thing that sometimes causes enough bad blood to cost 500-1000 votes, and when even 'safe' seats look a little dicey this time, that could lead to all end of hilarity.

[YL]

Which "chicken runners" have actually found new seats?  Not counting those where there's an overlap with their existing seat, I'm aware of Eddie Hughes (Walsall N), who I assume is now the candidate again in Tamworth, Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton SW), selected in South Shropshire, and Simon Baynes (Clwyd S), selected in North Shropshire.

And who is trying but hasn't found a new seat yet?  There's Stuart Andrew (Pudsey), Richard Holden (NW Durham), Andy Carter (Warrington S) and Jamie Wallis (Bridgend); any others?

Of course some of these have genuinely taken a hit from the relevant Boundary Commission, though barring a big Tory recovery most of them would be heading for defeat boundary changes or not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I note that none of the successful ones have tried to move far. They will still be attacked for chicken-running come the GE of course, but it seems that proximity is enough to help, at least, with the members of Conservative Associations. Whereas a lot of the others who have tried... lol. Admittedly there is the issue of options: if Holden (for instance) wants a secure constituency, then there simply aren't any available near his existing one.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Which "chicken runners" have actually found new seats?  Not counting those where there's an overlap with their existing seat, I'm aware of Eddie Hughes (Walsall N), who I assume is now the candidate again in Tamworth, Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton SW), selected in South Shropshire, and Simon Baynes (Clwyd S), selected in North Shropshire.

And who is trying but hasn't found a new seat yet?  There's Stuart Andrew (Pudsey), Richard Holden (NW Durham), Andy Carter (Warrington S) and Jamie Wallis (Bridgend); any others?

Of course some of these have genuinely taken a hit from the relevant Boundary Commission, though barring a big Tory recovery most of them would be heading for defeat boundary changes or not.

There's Nicola Richards in West Bromwich E (repeatedly linked to Solihull.) and Kieran Mullan in Crewe & Nantwich, who just lost the selection contest for Chester South & Eddisbury. I believe Scott Benton was also looking before he lost the whip. Chris Clarkson has been counted as displaced and therefore eligible to look elsewhere; I'm not sure if he's turned up on a shortlist yet though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Latest briefing from Planet Zarg is that Sunak wants to stay on as Tory leader after losing a GE because he thinks Labour might "quickly implode". Yeah, good luck with that in all respects

[Torrain]

Sounds very Heath in 1974-5...

Based on that tech-bro love-in Sunak had with Musk last week, I doubt he'll be an MP, or UK resident in February 2025, let alone Conservative Leader.

Silicon Valley is calling, and with them, the Chiltern Hundreds.

[Torrain]

ConHome have released their latest cabinet approval survey:

The members loved Ben Wallace in these surveys, and Cleverly seems to have replaced him in their affections, amid the situation in Israel and Palestine. Guess the membership just like a acid-tongued former soldier, who's built like a barrel and without much hair. Guess some things never change.

Still think he's an underrated candidate to break the Braverman-Badenoch duopoly. The Foreign Office is always a good springboard, and he's proved a decent survivor, serving continuously as a minister under the last four PMs.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Andrew Mitchell is still in the cabinet???

[Torrain]

Andrew Mitchell is still in the cabinet???

Sunak gave him the International Development brief last October.

He’s a minister in the Foreign Office, rather than a Secretary of State, but like Johnny Mercer he attends cabinet (and those roles always get included in the survey).

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's unclear whether Mitchell's low ratings are about him being a relatively liberal Tory, or just reflect the hostility of ConHome readers to International Development as a concept. Probably a mixture of both.

[JimJamUK]

Interesting that Therese Coffey is bottom. What’s she done to upset the Tory faithful?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Being Liz Truss's viceroy on earth?

[Torrain]

I think her demotion to DEFRA Secretary, making various sewage-related gaffes and pronoucements, and becoming the scapegoat for the water quality issue writ-large has also been pretty impactful.

Had a look back at the archive for previous editions of the survey - somehow, she was in the top five ministers (with positive ratings of net 40-50%) in the last months of Johnson's tenure. She dropped to around 20% after Truss left, but stayed in the net positive ratings until February 2023* when she fell to the bottom of the pack, with net negative ratings, where she's stayed. Her only competition for the bottom spot for most of this year has been Robert Jenrick.

*Feb 2023 is notable, because that's when the Times, Independent and New Scientist launched their public awareness campaign about the sewage treatment problem.

[CumbrianLefty]

*Feb 2023 is notable, because that's when the Times, Independent and New Scientist launched their public awareness campaign about the sewage treatment problem. In less significant

Did you mean to add something to this?

[Torrain]

*Feb 2023 is notable, because that's when the Times, Independent and New Scientist launched their public awareness campaign about the sewage treatment problem. In less significant

Did you mean to add something to this?

I was going to jokingly suggest that Radio 4's Dead Ringers framing her into a monosyballic sewage defender was the key moment for her decline in reputation, but that didn't happen until June, so I assumed someone who would pull me up on the timeline.

Went to go double-check mid-sentence, and forgot edit it out.

[CumbrianLefty]

Andrew Mitchell is still in the cabinet???

Notable how hacked off he sounded with Braverman's latest nonsense yesterday.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch/status/1722709351905865880

[Zinneke]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-kemi-badenoch-fall-out-affair-acquaintance-gxrwwl76v

Would this have been briefed by Badenoch or her team in order to rule out Gove for the Home Secretary job and also boost her image as a family values Conservative?

[Torrain]

Would this have been briefed by Badenoch or her team in order to rule out Gove for the Home Secretary job and also boost her image as a family values Conservative?

Presumably. It's been briefed in a way that praises Badenoch, paints Gove as a homewrecker, and then treads over the (unrelated) breakdown of his marriage. The only territory it doesn't cover are the old innuendos about his orientation.

Risky move though. It's not like this is a politician known for holding grudges against leaders, or taking revenge on former allies. Just ask Cameron, Johnson or Truss - I'm sure they'll vouch for his character.

[TheTide]

Would this have been briefed by Badenoch or her team in order to rule out Gove for the Home Secretary job and also boost her image as a family values Conservative?

Presumably. It's been briefed in a way that praises Badenoch, paints Gove as a homewrecker, and then treads over the (unrelated) breakdown of his marriage. The only territory it doesn't cover are the old innuendos about his orientation.

Risky move though. It's not like this is a politician known for holding grudges against leaders, or taking revenge on former allies. Just ask Cameron, Johnson or Truss - I'm sure they'll vouch for his character.

Oddly enough he was fairly loyal to Theresa May, with whom he had quite a big rivalry during the Coalition years.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does anyone have that insane quote somebody leaked about Gove that described him like a demonic entity? i believe it came from the truss adminstration.