Rasmussen: Kean(R) has a 5 pt edge on Menendez(D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You forgot AP and the other Rasmussen poll as well.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You forgot AP and the other Rasmussen poll as well.

I put in the AP poll, I spelled this out before (according this website):
Rasmussen +5 Kean
FDU +4 Kean
SV +2 Menendez
FDU +3 Menendez (throw out new FDU poll)
AP +1 Menendez
Quinnipiac +2 Kean

Those are the most recent but throw out old Rasmussen and FDU b/c there are new ones, the only other company, Rutgers, hasn't polled since mid-June so it is too old.  You can't include a company's old poll because it is irrevlevant other than to show swings.  Seriously, you are reaching now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But there isn't no new QU university poll and you forgot the old SV poll at the end of July as well. Last SV in July +6 for Menendez.

[DownWithTheLeft]

But there isn't no new QU university poll and you forgot the old SV poll at the end of July as well. Last SV in July +6 for Menendez.

Are you that dense?  Everything you say hurts you, Kean apporves 4 points in the Strategic Vision poll.  It has been a long time since he fell in a poll.

Do you realize you throw out a company's old poll when a new one comes out?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you are going to throw out SV you should throw out the old QU university poll, they polled the same time period. If you can throw out the old SV then you can throw out the old SV, I am not going to put Kean ahead until the next QU poll comes out, after those two polls came out the polls have been around the same. And its within the margin of error.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Are you dense, if you are going to throw out SV you should throw out the old QU university poll, they polled the same time period.

Your an idiot, your argument doesn't make sense

You throw out the company's old polls if there new ones, because the each indivdual company has there own polling methods, and there polling methods can't be used multiple times to get an accurate reading.  You use the most recent from each company. 

So basically, it stills come down to you try to put an unrealistically good spin on things.

Most Democrats on this forum can have intelligent arguments, but all your arguments are based on polls, and only polls that help your side.  One poll makes you change your mind on MT, but two polls in NJ, neither an insider, showing huge swings doesn't change your mind?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You can throw out your own poll and your arguements don't make sense I will not consider Kean is ahead until he is ahead in all the polls and so far one poll SV has Menendez ahead. And NJ is a democratic state. There are 17% undecided and margin is within the margin of error. I think that Menendez will ultimately ahead just like all your maps have republicans ahead and they are behind in the polls like MA, OR, and MA. You pick and chose which polls you want and I will do the same. There is 17% and until the undecides make up their mind I will not change my prediction.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You can throw out your own poll and your arguements don't make sense I will not consider Kean is ahead until he is ahead in all the polls and so far one poll SV has Menendez ahead. And NJ is a democratic state. There are 17% undecided and margin is within the margin of error. I think that Menendez will ultimately ahead just like all your maps have republicans ahead and they are behind in the polls like MA, OR, and MA. You pick and chose which polls you want and I will do the same.

This is my final post in this thread b/c:
1.) Olawakandi is the blindy-partisan idiot
2.) He relies solely on polls
3.) He only likes poll that help him and throws out legit ones
4.) Kean is ahead right now and you refuse to admit it

Basically, as Gustaf suggested, he should be banned until he gains some sense

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not an idiot just because you disagree with me doesn't make me so. And far as me being partisan you are partisan with you predictions, you won't change OR, MA, or ME on your governor predictions and you say I should change mine and my candidate is behind. I said we are all partisans on this site no one is more partisans than others. When you change MA, OR, and ME on your governor page I will change NJ. Until then don't call me partisan.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am not an idiot just because you disagree with me doesn't make me so. And far as me being partisan you are partisan with you predictions, you won't change OR, MA, or ME on your governor predictions and you say I should change mine and my candidate is behind. I said we are all partisans on this site no one is more partisans than others. When you change MA, OR, and ME on your governor page I will change NJ. Until then don't call me partisan.

One last post, I changed them, change your map.  Even though most polls in Maine show a closer than NJ does.

[Joe Republic]

This argument is possibly the most pathetic I've ever encountered here.

[Conan]

Survey USA shows Corzine with negatives. FDU, SV, and Quin show him with a net approval of +10 or more. Obviously he isnt the most popular governor in the country and obviously there are many people who disapprove. As for Kean, as of now he has a minor lead according to polls, although they are not outside the margin of error. I will predict that the next time a poll comes out, Menendez will lead and then Kean will lead and then Menendez. Then TV commercials will come on and debates and such and then Menendez will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You said ME is as close as NJ, the last poll had Baldacci up by 11 pts.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You said ME is as close as NJ, the last poll had Baldacci up by 11 pts.

Insider poll, look at the Rasmussens.

And for Conan, if your going to say that FDU and Qunninipiac give Crozine high apporvals, but then discount they have Kean ahead.  That must not look good for you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rasmussen also has Fogarty up on Carcieri and I don't believe that either.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Rasmussen also has Fogarty up on Carcieri and I don't believe that either.

The move toward a better thinker is starting for you, return to that form you had for about 2 weeks a few months ago when polls weren't everything.

[Conan]

You said ME is as close as NJ, the last poll had Baldacci up by 11 pts.

Insider poll, look at the Rasmussens.

And for Conan, if your going to say that FDU and Qunninipiac give Crozine high apporvals, but then discount they have Kean ahead.  That must not look good for you.

Kean isnt ahead. Margin of error isnt ahead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conan I think when the next QU poll come out I think Menendez will be up, that was a summer poll the last time they took it and it overstated republican support. I think Menendez will lead the next one.

[Conan]

Conan I think when the next QU poll come out I think Menendez will be up, that was a summer poll the last time they took it and it overstated republican support. I think Menendez will lead the next one.

Thats whats been happening for the most part all the race. I also did some research on past elections in NJ and the undecideds the day or a few days before the election was still around 10%+. Obviously those went to Democrats. Besides, this race hasnt even started yet, there havent been any commercials or flyers.

[ATFFL]

Conan I think when the next QU poll come out I think Menendez will be up, that was a summer poll the last time they took it and it overstated republican support. I think Menendez will lead the next one.

Thats whats been happening for the most part all the race. I also did some research on past elections in NJ and the undecideds the day or a few days before the election was still around 10%+. Obviously those went to Democrats. Besides, this race hasnt even started yet, there havent been any commercials or flyers.

That is how NJ usually votes.  The late voters break one way or another and swing the race.  Not always, however.  In 2004, according to exit polls, they went for Bush.  Kerry had a big enough lead that the 10% of the electorate that decided in the last three days did not go strong enough for Bush. 

[Smash255]

Conan I think when the next QU poll come out I think Menendez will be up, that was a summer poll the last time they took it and it overstated republican support. I think Menendez will lead the next one.

Thats whats been happening for the most part all the race. I also did some research on past elections in NJ and the undecideds the day or a few days before the election was still around 10%+. Obviously those went to Democrats. Besides, this race hasnt even started yet, there havent been any commercials or flyers.

That is how NJ usually votes.  The late voters break one way or another and swing the race.  Not always, however.  In 2004, according to exit polls, they went for Bush.  Kerry had a big enough lead that the 10% of the electorate that decided in the last three days did not go strong enough for Bush. 

the 04 exit polls were a bit strange to say the least, don't know if they were corrected or not.  Polls a couple months out in o4 (this time of year) showed Kerry with a very slim margin., and that group of undecideds tended to break towards Kerry.