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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Kean(R) has a 5 pt edge on Menendez(D)  (Read 6625 times)
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olawakandi
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« on: September 02, 2006, 11:05:58 am »
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New Poll: New Jersey Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-08-28

Summary: D: 39%, R: 44%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

« Last Edit: September 05, 2006, 06:09:10 pm by overton »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2006, 11:07:44 am »
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Gives me reason to change this now for a while to a Kean win...
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2006, 11:13:28 am »
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Still at 17% undecided.  This race is far from over.

Overton, if you can, please do the math to figure out the undecideds before you put them in the poll database.  This goes for everyone, but I mention it to you specificly since you are our biggest poll poster.
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2006, 11:16:52 am »
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Kean's done.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2006, 12:30:02 pm »
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Kean's done.

Do you mean Menendez?

He is not really done, but he certainly is not the favorite anymore


HERE IS IT!!
This poll is huge, gives Kean a lot of momentum heading into Labor Day and his father is coming out soon.
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2006, 12:30:58 pm »
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Huge?  It's only a poll.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2006, 12:33:52 pm »
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Huge?  It's only a poll.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.

It's huge b/c it gives momentum to Kean heading into Labor Day, and if he has momentum he could use it.  The more important part than the 5 point lead is the 11 point swing from last month.  Menendez is incredible danger, and Kean is definetly the favorite now.
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2006, 12:53:51 pm »
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Then go place a bet on Kean.  You get slightly better than even money.
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2006, 12:55:30 pm »
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Menendez is slowly becoming the most endangered incumbent either side, certainly much more so than Talent or Allen.
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2006, 12:59:37 pm »
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Huge?  It's only a poll.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.

It's huge b/c it gives momentum to Kean heading into Labor Day, and if he has momentum he could use it.  The more important part than the 5 point lead is the 11 point swing from last month.  Menendez is incredible danger, and Kean is definetly the favorite now.

Momentum is overrated.  The people who pay attention to the polls generally aren't going to be all that swayed by "momentum" anyway.  If momentum was exponential, a candidate that pulled ahead would never lose.
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2006, 01:46:49 pm »
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Menendez is slowly becoming the most endangered incumbent either side, certainly much more so than Talent or Allen.

Most endangered on either side? Not even close. You are aware of the existence of Rick Santorum and Mike Dewine correct? Also let us not forget that Menendez isn't even a true incumbent.

If I see one more poll where Kean has a slight lead, I'll be ready to call it a tossup. Otherwise it still leans towards Menendez.
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She was like "How did you get my number?  I don't handle this issue.  You have to call the South Bryant Campus for that.  I'll transfer you, but I don't handle it."  She said it in a slightly condescending tone.  I didn't tell her that Grumps gave me the number.  I just told her I looked it up.
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2006, 01:49:43 pm »
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He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.
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« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2006, 01:51:51 pm »
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He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.
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Aaron is pissed:

She was like "How did you get my number?  I don't handle this issue.  You have to call the South Bryant Campus for that.  I'll transfer you, but I don't handle it."  She said it in a slightly condescending tone.  I didn't tell her that Grumps gave me the number.  I just told her I looked it up.
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« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2006, 01:57:34 pm »
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He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.
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« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2006, 02:16:45 pm »
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He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

I now have Washington, Minnesota and Maryland in the Leans Democratic column. Michigan is rated as Likely Democratic.

New Jersey is now in my pure tossup/tilt GOP column. Governor Corzine only picked Menendez because Menendez had a huge financial warchest.
If Menendez is leading in the polls a week into his massive ad buy, Kean will win. In other words, if Kean is leading in October, this races is over.
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« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2006, 04:27:40 pm »
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For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2006, 04:32:17 pm »
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He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

I now have Washington, Minnesota and Maryland in the Leans Democratic column. Michigan is rated as Likely Democratic.

New Jersey is now in my pure tossup/tilt GOP column. Governor Corzine only picked Menendez because Menendez had a huge financial warchest.
If Menendez is leading in the polls a week into his massive ad buy, Kean will win. In other words, if Kean is leading in October, this races is over.

Good to see some Dems aren't so blinded by partisanship that when multiple polls show huge swings toward Kean Menendez is no longer the favorite.

I think I need to post my 25+ reasons when Kean will win because I've posted them all seperatley and Dems just blow them off.  To say Menendez is still ahead in this race, well that is true blind partisanship.

Menendez is the anti-Mike DeWine in the greatest sense:

What do they have in common?
They are both being killed by incredibly popular governors
The state government is fairly split
The state has been moving toward the center in recent years
Have negative approval ratings

What's different?
DeWine is a moderate w/a far-left challenger, Menendez is a far-lefter w/a moderate challenger.

Mike DeWine has been elected statewide multiple times, Bob Menendez has never been elected statewide.

Tom Kean is among the most respected names in NJ, the same cannot be said of Sherrod Brown.

Mike DeWine isn't marred by corruption and considered part of a political machine.  

Bottom line:
Against Frank Lautenberg, Lautenberg would have a small advantage, against Menendez, Kean Jr. has small advantage, which is all you need to win.
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« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2006, 05:24:27 pm »
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Be aware that the undecides are only avaliable for premium members.
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« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2006, 05:59:21 pm »
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Be aware that the undecides are only avaliable for premium members.

Or anyone with basic math skills.  100-D-R-I=U.  The independent candidates are unlikely to be a factor in most races.  If they are, most pollsters will mention them.
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Conan
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« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2006, 06:47:25 pm »
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Kean's done.

Do you mean Menendez?

He is not really done, but he certainly is not the favorite anymore


HERE IS IT!!
This poll is huge, gives Kean a lot of momentum heading into Labor Day and his father is coming out soon.

This polls is exactly whats been happening for the entire race. Menendez will lead like 75% of the polls in one month and be up by like 5 and then the next month he'll win 75% of the polls again and then Kean will have a poll where he has a healthier lead. Look at the poll history. It's weird.
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Conan
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« Reply #20 on: September 02, 2006, 06:48:43 pm »
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Huge?  It's only a poll.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.

It's huge b/c it gives momentum to Kean heading into Labor Day, and if he has momentum he could use it.  The more important part than the 5 point lead is the 11 point swing from last month.  Menendez is incredible danger, and Kean is definetly the favorite now.
Kean is def not the favorite but neither is Menendez. However Menendez is the favored candidate, not the favorite.
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Conan
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« Reply #21 on: September 02, 2006, 06:53:24 pm »
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Also, Menendez has very low name recognition and Kean has high recognition. Menendez hasnt aired any commercials yet. He can only go up once the commercials come out and people find out who their candidate is.  This seat will hold democratic and you'll just have to live with this "scumbag" in the Senate. Oh and name the last scumbag we elected to the senate? Torricelli and thats it. Besides even though he was corrupt it still doesnt make up for the scum in other places. I'll address that in a bit.
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Conan
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« Reply #22 on: September 02, 2006, 06:54:57 pm »
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He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.
Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.
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Conan
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« Reply #23 on: September 02, 2006, 06:56:06 pm »
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For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.
This coming from someone who endorses Allen, Burns, and Steele.
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« Reply #24 on: September 02, 2006, 07:28:01 pm »
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He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.
Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?
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