Rasmussen: Kean(R) has a 5 pt edge on Menendez(D)

[Eraserhead]

Menendez is slowly becoming the most endangered incumbent either side, certainly much more so than Talent or Allen.

Most endangered on either side? Not even close. You are aware of the existence of Rick Santorum and Mike Dewine correct? Also let us not forget that Menendez isn't even a true incumbent.

If I see one more poll where Kean has a slight lead, I'll be ready to call it a tossup. Otherwise it still leans towards Menendez.

[Eraserhead]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

[Eraserhead]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

You have failed to answer my question.  I will take that to be a tacit admission that you do not understand the terms.

"Throw out" means, in this instance, that we ignore it.  The reason for this follows.

An "outlier" is a poll that lies notably outside the expected range for the current state of the race.  1 in 20 well conducted polls will be an outlier.  More for a poll with poor methodology (i.e. Zogby Interactive.)

When 5 consecutive polls show the race D+5-8 and then one shows D+18 most people will operate under the assumption that the last poll is an outlier until confirmed by another poll.  Especially when we have no internal numbers from the last poll to look at.

Still lets remember Casey has led in every poll released this year. Kean has led in very few.