Rasmussen: Kean(R) has a 5 pt edge on Menendez(D)

[Conan]

Kean's done.

Do you mean Menendez?

He is not really done, but he certainly is not the favorite anymore


HERE IS IT!!
This poll is huge, gives Kean a lot of momentum heading into Labor Day and his father is coming out soon.

This polls is exactly whats been happening for the entire race. Menendez will lead like 75% of the polls in one month and be up by like 5 and then the next month he'll win 75% of the polls again and then Kean will have a poll where he has a healthier lead. Look at the poll history. It's weird.

[Conan]

Huge?  It's only a poll.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.

It's huge b/c it gives momentum to Kean heading into Labor Day, and if he has momentum he could use it.  The more important part than the 5 point lead is the 11 point swing from last month.  Menendez is incredible danger, and Kean is definetly the favorite now.

Kean is def not the favorite but neither is Menendez. However Menendez is the favored candidate, not the favorite.

[Conan]

Also, Menendez has very low name recognition and Kean has high recognition. Menendez hasnt aired any commercials yet. He can only go up once the commercials come out and people find out who their candidate is.  This seat will hold democratic and you'll just have to live with this "scumbag" in the Senate. Oh and name the last scumbag we elected to the senate? Torricelli and thats it. Besides even though he was corrupt it still doesnt make up for the scum in other places. I'll address that in a bit.

[Conan]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

[Conan]

For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.

This coming from someone who endorses Allen, Burns, and Steele.

[Conan]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

[Conan]

For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.

This coming from someone who endorses Allen, Burns, and Steele.

Steele is in my opinon the cleanist politican out there and I have proof to back it up! For example why would somebody who's rallying cry is aganst corruption be corrupt himself. With Allen even though he shoots his mouth off sometimes he is a man with class unlike the partisan hacks NJ elects. Also thats kind of hard to defend since you come from a state which elected the most crooked politican in my life so far ,and that man is Torricelli. 

Torricelli is only one out of many from all across the country. He has never even been charged with anything still. And yes Torricelli is a scumbag I am not trying to defend him. Also i never accused Steele of doing anything illegal. However all those you you continue to endorse with their banners are morally bankrupt. Burns is actually corrupt, "the most crooked". He should go to jail. However Menendez has never done anything the rules dont allow and that are up to interpretation for ethical reasons. I find it bizarre to call NJ Senators partison hacks when they are usually very low key especially when Corzine was there. None of the men you endorse are men of class and Burns should be in jail.

[Conan]

For the first time in history NJ won't elect a scumbag.

This coming from someone who endorses Allen, Burns, and Steele.

Corzine or the Corzinator as I like to call him is the definition of scumbag. 
Steele is in my opinon the cleanist politican out there and I have proof to back it up! For example why would somebody who's rallying cry is aganst corruption be corrupt himself. With Allen even though he shoots his mouth off sometimes he is a man with class unlike the partisan hacks NJ elects. Also thats kind of hard to defend since you come from a state which elected the most crooked politican in my life so far ,and that man is Torricelli. 

Torricelli is only one out of many from all across the country. He has never even been charged with anything still. And yes Torricelli is a scumbag I am not trying to defend him. Also i never accused Steele of doing anything illegal. However all those you you continue to endorse with their banners are morally bankrupt. Burns is actually corrupt, "the most crooked". He should go to jail. However Menendez has never done anything the rules dont allow and that are up to interpretation for ethical reasons. I find it bizarre to call NJ Senators partison hacks when they are usually very low key especially when Corzine was there. None of the men you endorse are men of class and Burns should be in jail.

Are you kidding? Corzine is the complete definition of scumbag.   

Oh yea sure he is. The man who used to lend his employees money to fix there homes and gives to charities across the country for all different causes. The scumbag who wants to balance the budget and defend New Jerseyans rights. Sure scumbag he is.

[Conan]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

You have failed to answer my question.  I will take that to be a tacit admission that you do not understand the terms.

"Throw out" means, in this instance, that we ignore it.  The reason for this follows.

An "outlier" is a poll that lies notably outside the expected range for the current state of the race.  1 in 20 well conducted polls will be an outlier.  More for a poll with poor methodology (i.e. Zogby Interactive.)

When 5 consecutive polls show the race D+5-8 and then one shows D+18 most people will operate under the assumption that the last poll is an outlier until confirmed by another poll.  Especially when we have no internal numbers from the last poll to look at.

No need for explanations or excuses. Santorum is done compared to Menendez. Get over it.

[Conan]

With those reasons, many of them false or speculated, I dont think Kean has much to run on.

[Conan]

Kean wins because (no polls):
1.) His father is the most respected NJ politician (among all)
2.) His father is yet to hit the campaign trail
Kean Sr. has never announced plans to campaign.
3.) Menendez has no one to fall back on and help him (Corzine is death)
Corzine isnt death. http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/
4.) Bush came much closer in 2004, state is moving rightward
Everyone knows the state is moving leftward.
5.) No Republican has run statewide since the 2002 fiasco not named Doug Forrester
All republicans lose elections here.
6.) Bob Menendez personally recommended Zelema Farber
Doesnt mean anything. Corzine fired her.
7.) Bob Menendez is involved in a scandal involving a house he rented
Up for speculation.
8.) He has negative approval ratings, and so does Lautenberg and Corzine
Untrue http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/ http://strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_081706.htm
9.) NJ is MA and would rather elect a moderate than an extremist (Codey's high approval compared to Corzine) Corzine was elected and has elected liberal democratic senators for nearly 3 decades.
10.) NJ is ready for balance (hell LA broke a 100+ year streak in 04')
Opinion with nothing to back up. LA is nothing like NJ.
11.) Jim McGreevey is still in people's minds
Menendez is not McGreevey
12.) Jon Corzine is definetly in people's minds, along w/the budget fiasco
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/
13.) Bob Menendez has never been elected statewide
14.) Bob Menendez's appointment by Corzine is direct link
And?
15.) There is no direct link between Tom Kean Jr. and Bush
Cheney and Laura? R next to his name and support for Iraq
16.) NJ is smart enough to see what links are there and what aren't
In Menendez's favor then
17.) Most New Jerseyeans were upset that Codey got canned
Yet we elected Corzine
18.) Tom Kean gives the base hope that they didn't have w/Forrester
19.) Most of NJ hates Hudson County politicians, and sees Menendez like Corzine as in that respect as well
Yet they continue to elect them and approve http://publicmind.fdu.edu/shakeoff/
20.) Ads don't have a huge effect in NJ liberal areas b/c of mixed markets (I've seen more Spitzer commercials than Kean)
They havent ran ads yet. But Corzines prove a lot.
21.) Menendez has not run close races because of his overwhemingly liberal area
22.) People think Tom Kean they think his father and Cristy Whitman, when was the last respectable NJ politician (except maybe Lautenberg)
Dick Codey, Bill Bradley. Our congressmen. Take away Whitman, she ruined the economy
23.) Bob Torricelli is fresh in people's minds
Nope
24.) Tom Kean is doing a great job and more scandals will emerge
Vice Versa too
25.) The overall state of GOP candidates is improving
Nope

[Conan]

Is The Vorlon still around? He could analyse this thing.

If it gets to late September and Kean is still in the lead, I'll change my prediction from D to R for this state.

Kean isnt in the lead. No one is really leading according to polls. But naturally its leaning democratic.

[Conan]

Looking at down with the left's list there I just had to laugh,  I think the best was bringing up Bush's better 2004 performance, and then mentioning Corzine's approvals.  When Corzine is in MUCH better shape in the state NOW than Bush is....  Rather interesting there got to say

Click on one of those links and it will show Corzine approvals which are actually pretty good at 50% approval with a net of 18%.

[Conan]

Survey USA shows Corzine with negatives. FDU, SV, and Quin show him with a net approval of +10 or more. Obviously he isnt the most popular governor in the country and obviously there are many people who disapprove. As for Kean, as of now he has a minor lead according to polls, although they are not outside the margin of error. I will predict that the next time a poll comes out, Menendez will lead and then Kean will lead and then Menendez. Then TV commercials will come on and debates and such and then Menendez will win.

[Conan]

You said ME is as close as NJ, the last poll had Baldacci up by 11 pts.

Insider poll, look at the Rasmussens.

And for Conan, if your going to say that FDU and Qunninipiac give Crozine high apporvals, but then discount they have Kean ahead.  That must not look good for you.

Kean isnt ahead. Margin of error isnt ahead.

[Conan]

Conan I think when the next QU poll come out I think Menendez will be up, that was a summer poll the last time they took it and it overstated republican support. I think Menendez will lead the next one.

Thats whats been happening for the most part all the race. I also did some research on past elections in NJ and the undecideds the day or a few days before the election was still around 10%+. Obviously those went to Democrats. Besides, this race hasnt even started yet, there havent been any commercials or flyers.