Rasmussen: Kean(R) has a 5 pt edge on Menendez(D)

[DownWithTheLeft]

Kean's done.

Do you mean Menendez?

He is not really done, but he certainly is not the favorite anymore


HERE IS IT!!
This poll is huge, gives Kean a lot of momentum heading into Labor Day and his father is coming out soon.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Huge?  It's only a poll.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.

It's huge b/c it gives momentum to Kean heading into Labor Day, and if he has momentum he could use it.  The more important part than the 5 point lead is the 11 point swing from last month.  Menendez is incredible danger, and Kean is definetly the favorite now.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Menendez is slowly becoming the most endangered incumbent either side, certainly much more so than Talent or Allen.

[DownWithTheLeft]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

I now have Washington, Minnesota and Maryland in the Leans Democratic column. Michigan is rated as Likely Democratic.

New Jersey is now in my pure tossup/tilt GOP column. Governor Corzine only picked Menendez because Menendez had a huge financial warchest.
If Menendez is leading in the polls a week into his massive ad buy, Kean will win. In other words, if Kean is leading in October, this races is over.

Good to see some Dems aren't so blinded by partisanship that when multiple polls show huge swings toward Kean Menendez is no longer the favorite.

I think I need to post my 25+ reasons when Kean will win because I've posted them all seperatley and Dems just blow them off.  To say Menendez is still ahead in this race, well that is true blind partisanship.

Menendez is the anti-Mike DeWine in the greatest sense:

What do they have in common?
They are both being killed by incredibly popular governors
The state government is fairly split
The state has been moving toward the center in recent years
Have negative approval ratings

What's different?
DeWine is a moderate w/a far-left challenger, Menendez is a far-lefter w/a moderate challenger.

Mike DeWine has been elected statewide multiple times, Bob Menendez has never been elected statewide.

Tom Kean is among the most respected names in NJ, the same cannot be said of Sherrod Brown.

Mike DeWine isn't marred by corruption and considered part of a political machine.  

Bottom line:
Against Frank Lautenberg, Lautenberg would have a small advantage, against Menendez, Kean Jr. has small advantage, which is all you need to win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

You have failed to answer my question.  I will take that to be a tacit admission that you do not understand the terms.

"Throw out" means, in this instance, that we ignore it.  The reason for this follows.

An "outlier" is a poll that lies notably outside the expected range for the current state of the race.  1 in 20 well conducted polls will be an outlier.  More for a poll with poor methodology (i.e. Zogby Interactive.)

When 5 consecutive polls show the race D+5-8 and then one shows D+18 most people will operate under the assumption that the last poll is an outlier until confirmed by another poll.  Especially when we have no internal numbers from the last poll to look at.

No need for explanations or excuses. Santorum is done compared to Menendez. Get over it.

Do you really the only thing you've said to why Menendez will win is because he YOU feel he is not corrupt.  Obviously you missed the building scandal.

As for as Corzine, obviously you missed he shoved Codey out of the way and his giving jobs to his close friends and loaning state money to his girlfriend.

Kean wins because (no polls):
1.) His father is the most respected NJ politician (among all)
2.) His father is yet to hit the campaign trail
3.) Menendez has no one to fall back on and help him (Corzine is death)
4.) Bush came much closer in 2004, state is moving rightward
5.) No Republican has run statewide since the 2002 fiasco not named Doug Forrester
6.) Bob Menendez personally recommended Zelema Farber
7.) Bob Menendez is involved in a scandal involving a house he rented
8.) He has negative approval ratings, and so does Lautenberg and Corzine
9.) NJ is MA and would rather elect a moderate than an extremist (Codey's high approval compared to Corzine)
10.) NJ is ready for balance (hell LA broke a 100+ year streak in 04')
11.) Jim McGreevey is still in people's minds
12.) Jon Corzine is definetly in people's minds, along w/the budget fiasco
13.) Bob Menendez has never been elected statewide
14.) Bob Menendez's appointment by Corzine is direct link
15.) There is no direct link between Tom Kean Jr. and Bush
16.) NJ is smart enough to see what links are there and what aren't
17.) Most New Jerseyeans were upset that Codey got canned
18.) Tom Kean gives the base hope that they didn't have w/Forrester
19.) Most of NJ hates Hudson County politicians, and sees Menendez like Corzine as in that respect as well
20.) Ads don't have a huge effect in NJ liberal areas b/c of mixed markets (I've seen more Spitzer commercials than Kean)
21.) Menendez has not run close races because of his overwhemingly liberal area
22.) People think Tom Kean they think his father and Cristy Whitman, when was the last respectable NJ politician (except maybe Lautenberg)?
23.) Bob Torricelli is fresh in people's minds
24.) Tom Kean is doing a great job and more scandals will emerge
25.) The overall state of GOP candidates is improving

And most important:
After seeing him take dives in polls, NJ will replace Bob Menendez on the ballot like they always do when afraid of losing.

[DownWithTheLeft]

With those reasons, many of them false or speculated, I dont think Kean has much to run on.

I love this, you are so afraid of Kean, you just throw out a blanket statement that those aren't true.  And if I wanted to fudge thing a little, I'd have 200 reasons, but sticking just to the truth I have those 25.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Looking at down with the left's list there I just had to laugh,  I think the best was bringing up Bush's better 2004 performance, and then mentioning Corzine's approvals.  When Corzine is in MUCH better shape in the state NOW than Bush is....  Rather interesting there got to say

Click on one of those links and it will show Corzine approvals which are actually pretty good at 50% approval with a net of 18%.

By what insider polling?  NJ hates this man, YOU like him.  But it wouldn't surprise me if my stupid state somehow managed to vote in Menendez today.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan, you must be overton's twin, he only acknowledge things in polls you like, and if a poll shows Corzine was +20 favorability and Kean up, that is really, really, really, really bad news for you

[DownWithTheLeft]

Like you don't base your things on your biases either, 3/7 polls have Kean up and you are overly excited and there is 17% still undecided.

3/5, you can't count Rasmussen and FDU twice
I think that Kean is the absolute best candidate the GOP could have nominated at the moment (John Murphy will be more popular, but not yet), plus corruption doesn't tend to help people and corrupt is killing Menendez.  I'm sure Dems said the same thing a little before this in 02' that Torricelli wasnt corrupt, but I am putting the odds of Menendez being switched off the ballot at about 20%.

[DownWithTheLeft]

No, I am counting FDU poll and the SV poll at the end of July plus 2 Zogby polls plus the AP poll that was released at the end of July. No, quesiton Kean has the momentum by with 17% undecided I wouldn't bet at this point Kean will win.

So, let's count 2 Zogby's (which are not credited by almost everyone on the site), but not Rasmussen or Quinnipiac.

According to what most people would do on the site (which is throw out Zogby) three of 5.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You forgot AP and the other Rasmussen poll as well.

I put in the AP poll, I spelled this out before (according this website):
Rasmussen +5 Kean
FDU +4 Kean
SV +2 Menendez
FDU +3 Menendez (throw out new FDU poll)
AP +1 Menendez
Quinnipiac +2 Kean

Those are the most recent but throw out old Rasmussen and FDU b/c there are new ones, the only other company, Rutgers, hasn't polled since mid-June so it is too old.  You can't include a company's old poll because it is irrevlevant other than to show swings.  Seriously, you are reaching now

[DownWithTheLeft]

But there isn't no new QU university poll and you forgot the old SV poll at the end of July as well. Last SV in July +6 for Menendez.

Are you that dense?  Everything you say hurts you, Kean apporves 4 points in the Strategic Vision poll.  It has been a long time since he fell in a poll.

Do you realize you throw out a company's old poll when a new one comes out?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Are you dense, if you are going to throw out SV you should throw out the old QU university poll, they polled the same time period.

Your an idiot, your argument doesn't make sense

You throw out the company's old polls if there new ones, because the each indivdual company has there own polling methods, and there polling methods can't be used multiple times to get an accurate reading.  You use the most recent from each company. 

So basically, it stills come down to you try to put an unrealistically good spin on things.

Most Democrats on this forum can have intelligent arguments, but all your arguments are based on polls, and only polls that help your side.  One poll makes you change your mind on MT, but two polls in NJ, neither an insider, showing huge swings doesn't change your mind?

[DownWithTheLeft]

You can throw out your own poll and your arguements don't make sense I will not consider Kean is ahead until he is ahead in all the polls and so far one poll SV has Menendez ahead. And NJ is a democratic state. There are 17% undecided and margin is within the margin of error. I think that Menendez will ultimately ahead just like all your maps have republicans ahead and they are behind in the polls like MA, OR, and MA. You pick and chose which polls you want and I will do the same.

This is my final post in this thread b/c:
1.) Olawakandi is the blindy-partisan idiot
2.) He relies solely on polls
3.) He only likes poll that help him and throws out legit ones
4.) Kean is ahead right now and you refuse to admit it

Basically, as Gustaf suggested, he should be banned until he gains some sense

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am not an idiot just because you disagree with me doesn't make me so. And far as me being partisan you are partisan with you predictions, you won't change OR, MA, or ME on your governor predictions and you say I should change mine and my candidate is behind. I said we are all partisans on this site no one is more partisans than others. When you change MA, OR, and ME on your governor page I will change NJ. Until then don't call me partisan.

One last post, I changed them, change your map.  Even though most polls in Maine show a closer than NJ does.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You said ME is as close as NJ, the last poll had Baldacci up by 11 pts.

Insider poll, look at the Rasmussens.

And for Conan, if your going to say that FDU and Qunninipiac give Crozine high apporvals, but then discount they have Kean ahead.  That must not look good for you.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Rasmussen also has Fogarty up on Carcieri and I don't believe that either.

The move toward a better thinker is starting for you, return to that form you had for about 2 weeks a few months ago when polls weren't everything.