Rasmussen: Kean(R) has a 5 pt edge on Menendez(D)

[ATFFL]

Still at 17% undecided.  This race is far from over.

Overton, if you can, please do the math to figure out the undecideds before you put them in the poll database.  This goes for everyone, but I mention it to you specificly since you are our biggest poll poster.

[ATFFL]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

[ATFFL]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

[ATFFL]

Be aware that the undecides are only avaliable for premium members.

Or anyone with basic math skills.  100-D-R-I=U.  The independent candidates are unlikely to be a factor in most races.  If they are, most pollsters will mention them.

[ATFFL]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

[ATFFL]

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum.  He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

Someone who leads in about 75% of the polls is no where near someone who hasnt led one poll and is 18% behind.

DO you not understand what the phrases "throw out" and "outlier" mean?

Do you have any common sense is more like it. No where close to Santorum.

You have failed to answer my question.  I will take that to be a tacit admission that you do not understand the terms.

"Throw out" means, in this instance, that we ignore it.  The reason for this follows.

An "outlier" is a poll that lies notably outside the expected range for the current state of the race.  1 in 20 well conducted polls will be an outlier.  More for a poll with poor methodology (i.e. Zogby Interactive.)

When 5 consecutive polls show the race D+5-8 and then one shows D+18 most people will operate under the assumption that the last poll is an outlier until confirmed by another poll.  Especially when we have no internal numbers from the last poll to look at.

[ATFFL]

Still lets remember Casey has led in every poll released this year. Kean has led in very few.

Absolutely true.

Though, at the risk of sounding incredibly cliche, there is only one poll that matters and it is still two months out.  Casey could win by 15 or lose by 10.  Kean could win by 8 or lose by 12.  We'll know soon enough.

[ATFFL]

Is The Vorlon still around? He could analyse this thing.

If it gets to late September and Kean is still in the lead, I'll change my prediction from D to R for this state.

Time is unimportant, the number of undecideds is.  At least in New Jersey.

[ATFFL]

From the SV link Conan posted:

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Now, Conan does link to a Farleigh Dickinson poll that seems to show Corzine with a net favorlable rating.  Looking deeper, this is not true.

Crosstabs of FDU Public Mind poll

From there:

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How these two jibe with each other, I have no clue. 

Still, if you are going to take the FDU poll as gospel on the governor's approval, then this FDU poll is gospel on the status of the race.

[ATFFL]

Conan I think when the next QU poll come out I think Menendez will be up, that was a summer poll the last time they took it and it overstated republican support. I think Menendez will lead the next one.

Thats whats been happening for the most part all the race. I also did some research on past elections in NJ and the undecideds the day or a few days before the election was still around 10%+. Obviously those went to Democrats. Besides, this race hasnt even started yet, there havent been any commercials or flyers.

That is how NJ usually votes.  The late voters break one way or another and swing the race.  Not always, however.  In 2004, according to exit polls, they went for Bush.  Kerry had a big enough lead that the 10% of the electorate that decided in the last three days did not go strong enough for Bush.