What if Franz Ferdinand had been assassinated in Budapest by Hungarians?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

One of the reasons Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated was that he was viewed as a supporter of trialism, under which the dual monarchy would be refashioned as a triple monarchy with a separate Slav kingdom.  Now while the Serbs had obvious reasons to be unhappy about this, so did the Hungarians.   If Franz had visited Budapest that fateful day and been assassinated by Hungarian nationalists, what then?

[Bono]

Then we wouldn't be able to listen to Do You Want To.

[The Dowager Mod]

It would have been handled as an internal matter.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

WWI is triggered in 1916 by Germany and russia fighting over who is on top of which independent states in the ex-habsurg empire.

[afleitch]

Possibly civil war. Would have perhaps expanded into the Balkans and Germany but would remain fairly localised in central Europe.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Possibly civil war. Would have perhaps expanded into the Balkans and Germany but would remain fairly localised in central Europe.

You're forgetting the alliance systems.

[12th Doctor]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

[minionofmidas]

Hard to say. Damn that is hard. It's quite possible that there'd been no WWI, and thence no WWII... the collapse of Austria-Hungary itself was, of course, utterly inevitable by 1914.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Hard to say. Damn that is hard. It's quite possible that there'd been no WWI, and thence no WWII... the collapse of Austria-Hungary itself was, of course, utterly inevitable by 1914.

Inevitable by 1914 yes but if you managed to find competent leadrship in the 1890s or so...

[minionofmidas]

Hard to say. Damn that is hard. It's quite possible that there'd been no WWI, and thence no WWII... the collapse of Austria-Hungary itself was, of course, utterly inevitable by 1914.

Inevitable by 1914 yes but if you managed to find competent leadrship in the 1890s or so...

The point of no return is usually assumed to've been in the 1860s...

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Hard to say. Damn that is hard. It's quite possible that there'd been no WWI, and thence no WWII... the collapse of Austria-Hungary itself was, of course, utterly inevitable by 1914.

Inevitable by 1914 yes but if you managed to find competent leadrship in the 1890s or so...

The point of no return is usually assumed to've been in the 1860s...

Disagree. IMO you just need to have Franz Joseph Die in the 1890s and Franz ferdinand take over.

[J. J.]

Hard to say. Damn that is hard. It's quite possible that there'd been no WWI, and thence no WWII... the collapse of Austria-Hungary itself was, of course, utterly inevitable by 1914.

I think that, even in 1914, Austria-Hungary could have become a federated state under a shared crown, Maygars, Czechs, Slovenes, Bosnians, even German-Austrians could have gained from mutual protection.   I could very easily see the "Federated Habsburg Empire" being formed.

[minionofmidas]

Uh-uh. Nobody, and I mean nobody outside the German-speaking upper middle class, had an inch of respect for that royal house or loyalty to that country left by 1914.

[Gabu]

Then we wouldn't be able to listen to Do You Want To.

In that case, I think we need to get on this as soon as possible.

[jokerman]

I could see Germany making some sort of effort to help the Austro-Hungarian monarchy maintain it's control over it's empire.  I don't know, maybe Serbia would invade in attempt to gain slavic lands in southern Austria-Hungary amid all of the turmoil.  If that were the case, with many other european countries itching for war, there's a possiblity of a WWI still occuring.

[CPT MikeyMike]

The war in Europe was going to happen. The assassination only sped up the war by about 2-3 years.

[J. J.]

There would have been a very different dynamic.  Serbia and Russia would not aid the Magyars.  Germany may have added support to the Hapsburg's, but you would likely see a "German-Hungarian War," possibly ending with the bulk of Austria-Hungary splitting up.  I could actually see something that looked like pre-WWII Reich, but including West Prussia, and the "Uber-Kaiser" in Berlin.

[Verily]

I could see Germany making some sort of effort to help the Austro-Hungarian monarchy maintain it's control over it's empire.  I don't know, maybe Serbia would invade in attempt to gain slavic lands in southern Austria-Hungary amid all of the turmoil.  If that were the case, with many other european countries itching for war, there's a possiblity of a WWI still occuring.

Not a full-scale World War; more likely something like the Franco-Prussian War. Germany would have intervened and tried to restore Habsburg authority, unsuccessfully. The Serb and Hungarian parts of the empire would have become independent, and Germany might have tried to annex the German-speaking areas.

At this point, we have a more powerful Germany but no Austro-Hungary and two, albeit weak, obvious enemies of Germany. WWI probably would still have broken out, but over something else, and possibly with the various powers taking entirely different sides. (After all, Russia might have supported Germany's attempt to control a multi-ethnic empire as they, too sat on a multi-ethnic boiling pot.)

[J. J.]

At this point, we have a more powerful Germany but no Austro-Hungary and two, albeit weak, obvious enemies of Germany. WWI probably would still have broken out, but over something else, and possibly with the various powers taking entirely different sides. (After all, Russia might have supported Germany's attempt to control a multi-ethnic empire as they, too sat on a multi-ethnic boiling pot.)

This point is the key.  Russia entered because Serbia was seen as a Slavic "brother."  Hungary was no one's "brother."  He might have seen Romania entering on the German side, since Transylvania was part of Hungary.

1920:

The "Uber Reich," consisting of the pre-1914 Empire, the, current Austria, Carniola, Trent and Trieste.

Perhaps the Kingdom of Bohemia  under German domination.

Greater Serbia, and a Slovakia buffer state (or even to Russia).  A larger Hungary than today, but without Transylvania (which goes to Romania).

[GMantis]

I don't think the effects would be that great. The Hungarians had as much interest as the Austrians in a continued Empire and both were generally against more power for the Slavs and others. The official Hungarian government would distance itself from the assassination and it would be hushed up.
If Austria-Hungary did collapse, the two main powers would keep control over much larger territories. And I don't see either Romania or Serbia from interfering - they had problems on their other borders. Russia would probably support the collapse of the empire, unless it started to affect the Austrian part of Poland.
I also don't agree that WWI was inevitable - people would be saying the same for WWIII if it had happened. It was very likely, however.  But the later the outbreak of the war, the less the chances of a Central Powers victory and the greater the chances for a short war. Whether this is good or bad is another question.