But with Europe and the United States not gearing up as intently for war as in OTL and no embargo, Japan will be able to buy the resources they need as long as the war only involves China and if the Soviet Union attacks, then they probably get support from the British and/or the French. The embargo was as much to divert resources to the Allied war effort as it was to punish the Japanese.
I would have to agree with you on the issue of Soviet involvement in external affairs Ernest. It would be highly unlikely and quite disasterous for Stalin. Until he was attacked by Hitler in 1941 and for the entire history of the Soviet Union it had been constantly looking in on internal security/consolidation of power, and developing the Soviet state rather than the active expansion of Communism. Stalin actually let Comintern faltering during his time as Soviet Premier because he was more concerned about forming Communism into a Russian nationalism of a sort.
I also personally believe that it was quite possible that either the KPD or an NSDAP under a leader different from Hitler would have gained power at some point. Weimar German was at a precipace that it could not avert, IMHO. Either it would have gone Communist sometime during the thirties or an alternate NSDAP under an alternate leader, and there are plenty of candidates, would have come to power. Whether they would have been as deadly and disasterous as Hitler is another question altogether.
