Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[Sam Spade]

A couple of notes: 

1. In the Likely D seats, what's kind of funny is that Giffords has not run that great of a campaign and Kolbe's indiscretions have actually helped Graf a bit.  No one's funding here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the race enters in under a 10% margin.  The only reason why TX-22 is lower than AZ-08 is because the NRCC has pumped in by my count nearly 3/4 of a million dollars into this race over the last week and there is a very large Bush fundraiser occurring later this week for Gibbs.
2. I place the middle line at this moment concerning where the races are @ IL-06 (open).  It's been that way for most of the year.  Races 29-32 are creeping up the board steadily.
3. Where the national committees are sending their money and men (or women) has a lot to do with how I judge the races in the Lean R column.  For example, the Republicans have been throwing a lot of money at PA-04 and ID-01 and the Democrats have been teasing us a good bit as to where they're spending, but I think CA-11 will be high on the list.
4. I was going to rank the NY races higher based on C-D polling, but two things hold me back.  First off, it appears apparent that their poll on NY-20 was simply wrong.  When the D internal says only up 2, that means the R is up, though by how much I can't say.  This is not to say that the Siena poll is right either, it's simply a matter of comparison.  What it does tell me is that perhaps I should be extremely leery of their other NY polls when one is so off and the others buck conventional wisdom.  Second, the national committees haven't spent a dime on races outside NY-20, NY-24 and NY-26.  Third, with the exception of NY-29 (though it's still partially true), most of the lower-tier NY GOP incumbents have huge cash advantages on their opponents.  I could be wrong with my analysis, but that's what it is.
5.  You'll notice I've taken some GOP hopes off the list, and added IN-07 to the main one.  Feels right to me, since GOP hope is fading.

House
Top Dem opportunities

Likely D
1. AZ-08 (open)
2. TX-22 (open)
3. PA-10
4. IN-08

Lean D
5. CO-07 (open)
6. IA-01 (open)
7. FL-16 (open)
8. PA-07
9. OH-15
10. IN-02
11. NY-24 (open)
12. NY-26

Toss-Up
13. NM-01
14. PA-06
15. NC-11
16. IN-09
17. OH-18 (open)
18. CT-04
19. MN-06 (open)
20. OH-01
21. CT-02
22. IL-06 (open)
23. VA-02
24. WI-08 (open)
25. FL-22
26. KY-04
27. WA-08
28. FL-13 (open)
29. PA-08
30. KY-03

Lean R
31. CT-05
32. MN-01
33. NV-02 (open)
34. AZ-05
35. NY-20
36. OH-02
37. NH-02
38. NY-25
39. PA-04
40. CA-11
41. ID-01 (open)
42. CO-04
43. AZ-01
44. IA-02
45. WY-AL
46. NY-03
47. NV-03
48. VA-10
49. NY-29
50. KY-02

The Dem List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. CA-04
2. CA-50
3. CO-05 (open)
4. FL-08
5. FL-09 (open)
6. IL-10
7. IL-11
8. IL-14
9. IN-03
10. KS-02
11. MI-08
12. MN-02
13. MT-AL
14. NC-08
15. NE-01
16. NE-03 (open)
17. NH-01
18. NJ-05
19. NJ-07
20. NY-19
21. OH-12
22. TX-23
23. VA-05
24. WA-05
25. WV-02

Top GOP opportunities

Lean Dem
1. GA-12
2. IL-08
3. GA-08
4. VT-AL (open)
5. IA-03
6. OR-05
7. IN-07
8. LA-03
9. WV-01

The GOP List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. CO-03
2. IL-17 (open)
3. LA-02
4. NC-13
5. TX-17
6. SC-05

Prediction (as of October 24, 2006/two-week mark)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
CT-04
FL-13 (open)
FL-16 (open)
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
MN-06 (open)
NC-11
NM-01
NY-24 (open)
NY-26
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
VA-02

Republican gains
None

110th House
226D, 209R

[Sam Spade]

I don't normally do a mid-week update on Senate polling, but I think one is called for here because of the M-D polls.

I think the middle of the road race right now is MO.  I also think Burns and Corker are gaining, whereas DeWine and Chafee are losing ground.

Likely D
Washington
Pennsylvania (R)

Lean D
Ohio (R)
Maryland*
Rhode Island (R)
New Jersey
Montana (R)

Toss-up
Missouri (R)
Tennessee* (R) - I made my Ford comments earlier today, no need to repeat.

Lean R
Virginia - A very slight Lean R.
Arizona - I'm playing it safe and putting this race here because it's really on the cusp.

Likely I/D (as opposed to Likely D)
Connecticut
Prediction (as of October 24, 2006)
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Rhode Island
Montana
Missouri

Republican gains
None

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Senate
50 R, 48D, 2 I

[Sam Spade]

Another update:  You will be seeing me moving IN-03 and WA-05 sometime soon, though IN-03 much higher than WA-05.  The NRCC put about $70,000 of media time into IN-03 yesterday.  The DCCC put another $125,000 into WA-05 (on top of $60,000).  The NRCC has ignored them as of yet.

The DCCC also put its first ads on CA-11 and PA-04, but that was expected.  There were a lot of media purchases in the standard races yesterday also.

Perhaps of greater importance, we got numbers today on where the DSCC (which reports by paper, not electronically) dumped about $12 million dollars on October 17.  Here are the results, ranked by amount:

MO - $3,402,584 opposing Talent
TN - $1,211,635 opposing Corker, $1,367,256 supporting Ford (about $2.6 million all told)
NJ - $2,037,723 opposing Kean
OH - $1,887,734 opposing DeWine
MT - $894,346 opposing Burns
VA - $709,854 opposing Allen
RI - $573,067 opposing Chafee

Once again, I get all my numbers from this site, which is free to browse, but nearly impossible to navigate properly.

http://politicalmoneyline.com/

I will probably keep posting when I see relevant information.  Also, to add to the above, the RNC spent another $1.78 million on MO and about $650,000 in OH and the NRSC put $1.44 million into VA, for comparison...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's a good site, while difficult to navigate as said. Is there any way to specifically look up all money spent on both sides in a certain district or state?

[Sam Spade]

That's a good site, while difficult to navigate as said. Is there any way to specifically look up all money spent on both sides in a certain district or state?

Nope, there isn't.  Or at least I haven't found it yet.  They don't update the Independent Committee numbers quick enough for that to be of any use and the links through the various races don't give you much either.

Maybe you can figure it out.  It's the best site out there, bar none, unfortunately.

[Sam Spade]

Posted this in Governor's thread, reposting here:

I'm going to update this thread on Sunday.  Per what I said earlier in the year, I'm taking races that I think are (fundamentally) off the table.  If I have doubts, they will probably stay on.  If I think there is less of a chance of winning than the polls indicate, you will see me note this.  If I think the race is flexible and could do a lot of tightening up, you will see a closer designation.  I will most likely opt for the more competitive ranking, overall.  There will be very little difference between my predictions and the rankings.

The overall polling numbers you might expect are: 
Within MOE = tossup (with Leans indicated)
Outside MOE to about 8%-9% = Lean D or R
8%-9% to about 12% or so (this will be a little more flexible = Likely R
All other races = Safe R

In short, I want my rankings from now on in to look as close to as how I think it'll all come down.

[Flying Dog]

OH - $1,887,734 opposing DeWine
MT - $894,346 opposing Burns
 the RNC spent another $650,000 in OH

They should have Tester getting 1.9 million and Brown getting $900,000.

Why is the RNC wasting $650,000 in Ohio why they have about a 10% chance of winning there?

[© tweed]

They should have Tester getting 1.9 million and Brown getting $900,000.

Money is worth less in Ohio than it is in Montana.

[WMS]

After watching the NM-01 ads, I don't think I've seen this much mud-slinging before in a congressional race, and from both sides. Both Wilson and Madrid are running two of the most pointedly negative campaings I've ever seen.

Yes, and the fact that I'll...well, probably not wake up, I don't see this getting called until well into the next...have one of these two as Congresswoman after such a campaign is not exactly cheery.

And if Madrid wins, expect an equally nasty and close rematch in 2008, since Madrid...just isn't the type of candidate who could make this seat safe for the Dems...this could also happen in 2008 if Wilson wins.

I'm glad I don't watch television at the moment...

[Sam Spade]

A little more news:  In FL-16, Republicans will be allowed to post signs at polling places saying a vote for Negron means a vote for Foley.  Only the Secretary of State will not be allowed to.  Apparently, the Democrats are not challenging the ruling.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2006/10/signs_going_up.html

[Sam Spade]

I'm going to give an earlier "tease" update by releasing my all-new Senate rankings 10 days out.

A couple of notes:

First, I would say that the chances of a "national wave" occurring have declined a decent bit in the past two weeks.  There is, in my mind, about a 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 chance of it happening (and I know how high Rothenberg thinks it is likely), as opposed to the 1 in 2 prediction I would have made a couple of weeks ago.

The national poll numbers are still just as terrible, but the state-by-state numbers are currently indicating positive movement towards Republicans in at least the races that matter over the past 2 weeks (from the nadir).  There are some exceptions to this (Ohio Senate, a couple of house races), but there always will be.  And, as a rule, I go with state polling numbers over national numbers in determining state races when the two don't jive (mainly because the state numbers pick up trends faster).

Second, on the Senate and Governor side, I will be taking some races of the table and closing the lines.  The races I include here are the only ones that I think "have a shot of switching".  They are ranked in order of "switchitude".

Senate

Safe D
California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
Michigan - Probably in the same boat as Nebraska.  Stabenow wins 55%-45%.
Minnesota*
Nebraska - Nelson's only gonna win 55%-45%, but not much else of interest here.
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Ohio (R) (from Lean D to Safe D) - Yep, DeWine's done.
Pennsylvania (R) (from Likely D to Safe D) - Yep, Santorum's done.
Washington (from Likely D to Safe D) - McGavick just lent himself some more money.  Won't help any.
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely D
None

Lean D
Rhode Island (R) - GOP hopes are slipping here.  The only thing that saves them is that I have no confidence in RI polling whatsoever.
Maryland* - A tough race to call.  Simply, straightforwardly true.  The black vote is really what I can't and won't be able to figure until election day.  I only wish M-D had polled here instead of wasting time in Washington.
Montana (R) - Burns is actually back in this thing by hammering Tester on the tax issue and the NRSC sent him $500,000 today (which is a lot in MT).  It would literally be impossible to believe if he came back and won this thing, but he's certainly giving himself a chance.

Toss-up (Lean D)
New Jersey (D) - The last series of polls appear to show Kean gaining again, as his advertising labeling Menendez as "corrupt" appears to be working.  Daddy's name always helps in an old-line state (look at PA).

Toss-up (Lean R)
Missouri (R) - Right now, this is the race closest to toss-up.  Three out of the last four polls put the edge as slight Talent, with the exception being M-D.  That's a big exception.  If the polls are right, turnout will be the main last stand.
Virginia (R) - I put this here, because I'm really not sure how the whole "Webb book" thing is playing out.  It may switch afterwards.  I only put it higher than TN because of the natural Republicanness of the latter compared to the former.
Tennessee* (R) - After running such a great campaign early on, Ford has gone downhill of late.  Corker seems to have gathered it together.  It is odd for me to put this below TN, but until I know how the Webb thingy falls out, I'm putting it here.

Lean R
Arizona - Like Maryland, except also battling against the incumbent bias.  If a wave happens, this one will be much closer.  Otherwise, it's in worse shape than MD, imho.

Likely R
None

Safe R
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Safe I/D
Connecticut (from Likely D to Safe D) - Poor, poor Lamont.  He just wasn't a very good candidate.  Much like the Daily Kossacks are not very good political analysts.
Vermont

Prediction (as of October 29, 2006)
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Rhode Island
Montana

Republican gains
None

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Senate
51 R, 47D, 2 I

[jimrtex]

1. In the Likely D seats, what's kind of funny is that Giffords has not run that great of a campaign and Kolbe's indiscretions have actually helped Graf a bit.  No one's funding here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the race enters in under a 10% margin.  The only reason why TX-22 is lower than AZ-08 is because the NRCC has pumped in by my count nearly 3/4 of a million dollars into this race over the last week and there is a very large Bush fundraiser occurring later this week for Gibbs.

Early voting turnout in Fort Bend County (1st 4 days) up 79% over 2002.  Galveston County up 60%.

The Secretary of State reports early voting for the 15 most populous counties.  In 2002, it appears that at least some counties had early voting on the initial weekend as well, so in come cases, this compares 4 days with 6 days.

Big Counties:
Harris (-4%), Dallas (-1%), Tarrant (-8%)

Congressional races, State senate, house race or two.
Bexar (+24%)

Possibly Strayhorn and Friedman don't have GOTV operations?
Travis (-22%)

Suburban growth areas.
Collin (+14%),  Denton (+16%), Montgomery (+10%), Williamson (+10%)

Two house races.
Nueces (+10%)

No Tony Sanchez on ballot.
El Paso (-19%), Hidalgo (-42%)

Cameron County replaced Jefferson County in 15-county index.

[Sam Spade]

I'm putting together the House list again and trying to be really detailed about it.  This is really just a placeholder so I don't have to go searching pages pack in this forum.

[Sam Spade]

I've decided to expand the Dem list to sixty seats, to show what's going on in the back of my head, and just add a few on at the end to watch, which should all be considered Likely R..

House
Top Dem opportunities

Likely D
1. AZ-08 (open)
2. PA-10

Lean D
3. IN-08
4. TX-22 (open) - the poll today perked my interest, but it's still Dem's advantage.
5. CO-07 (open)
6. NY-24 (open)
7. PA-07
8. OH-15
9. IN-02
10. IA-01 (open) - Both parties are spending tons of money here.  We haven't seen a poll here in ages, so it's hard for me to really say anything, except to place it lower the CO-07 and NY-24.
11. FL-16 (open) - The ballot box ruling helps the GOP.  I don't know by how much though.

Toss-Up
12. PA-06 - There is so much money being spent by the national parties in the next six seats that toss-up is really the only call.
13. NC-11
14. NM-01
15. IN-09
16. CT-04
17. OH-18 (open)
18. FL-13 (open) - My gut tells me Buchanan's down, but he can self-fund.
19. OH-01
20. CT-02
21. WI-08 (open) - This is the one race I can't figure right now.
22. IL-06 (open)
23. CT-05 - Poll today shows Murphy up 4.  I have to think that CT-05 only falls if CT-02 and CT-04 do, but maybe all three do.  My only bit of opposite guidance is that the word on the street private polling of both campaigns puts Johnson up by about 3.
24. VA-02
25. WA-08
26. NY-26 - I can't figure this one out either.
27. NY-29 - An example of a race that has seriously moved up the list.
28. MN-06 (open) - An example of a race that has fallen down the list.  Possibly could be in Lean R.

Lean R
29. KY-04 - Lucas is just not campaigning actively.  It shows.
30. KY-03 - The quintessential (as Charlie Cook correctly puts it) bellweather race.  Neither party has been advertising here at all, yet this is the race to watch for a national wave, imho.
31. PA-08
32. FL-22 - To echo another refrain:  There has been so much money spent here.
33. NY-20
34. AZ-05
35. MN-01
36. NY-25
37. NH-02 - Another race where I really don't know where to put. 
38. ID-01 (open)
39. CA-11 - Even if no wave occurs, this could well be a surprise.
40. AZ-01
41. NV-03
42. WY-AL - If a wave occurs, expect this seat to be the benchmark.  The wave would pick up a couple of seats below and leave a couple of seats above hanging, but overall 40-45 would be the correct number.
43. OH-02
44. CO-04
45. NV-02 (open)
46. PA-04
47. OH-12
48. CO-05 (open)
49. NY-19
50. IA-02
51. NY-03
52. VA-10
53. NC-08
54. IL-10
55. NJ-07

Likely R
56. NE-03 (open)
57. TX-23
58. KY-02
59. CA-04
60. KS-02

Additional House Races to Examine (not in any order)
1. CA-50
2. FL-08
3. FL-09 (open)
4. IL-11
5. IN-03
6. MI-08
7. MN-02
8. NE-01
9. OH-14
10. WV-02

Top GOP opportunities

Lean Dem
1. IL-08
2. GA-12
3. GA-08
4. IA-03
5. VT-AL (open)
6. OR-05
7. IN-07
8. LA-03
9. WV-01

The GOP List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. CO-03
2. IL-17 (open)
3. LA-02
4. NC-13
5. TX-17
6. SC-05

Prediction (as of October 30, 2006)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
CT-04
FL-13 (open)
FL-16 (open)
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
NC-11
NM-01
NY-24 (open)
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
WI-08 (open)

Republican gains
None

110th House
224D, 211R

If there's a wave folks, expect the number of seats lost to double, roughly.

[WMS]

Where is the prediction for Illinois State House District 95?

[NHPolitico]

I've decided to expand the Dem list to sixty seats, to show what's going on in the back of my head, and just add a few on at the end to watch, which should all be considered Likely R..

House
Top Dem opportunities

Likely D
1. AZ-08 (open)
2. PA-10

Lean D
3. IN-08
4. TX-22 (open) - the poll today perked my interest, but it's still Dem's advantage.
5. CO-07 (open)
6. NY-24 (open)
7. PA-07
8. OH-15
9. IN-02
10. IA-01 (open) - Both parties are spending tons of money here.  We haven't seen a poll here in ages, so it's hard for me to really say anything, except to place it lower the CO-07 and NY-24.
11. FL-16 (open) - The ballot box ruling helps the GOP.  I don't know by how much though.

Toss-Up
12. PA-06 - There is so much money being spent by the national parties in the next six seats that toss-up is really the only call.
13. NC-11
14. NM-01
15. IN-09
16. CT-04
17. OH-18 (open)
18. FL-13 (open) - My gut tells me Buchanan's down, but he can self-fund.
19. OH-01
20. CT-02
21. WI-08 (open) - This is the one race I can't figure right now.
22. IL-06 (open)
23. CT-05 - Poll today shows Murphy up 4.  I have to think that CT-05 only falls if CT-02 and CT-04 do, but maybe all three do.  My only bit of opposite guidance is that the word on the street private polling of both campaigns puts Johnson up by about 3.
24. VA-02
25. WA-08
26. NY-26 - I can't figure this one out either.
27. NY-29 - An example of a race that has seriously moved up the list.
28. MN-06 (open) - An example of a race that has fallen down the list.  Possibly could be in Lean R.

Lean R
29. KY-04 - Lucas is just not campaigning actively.  It shows.
30. KY-03 - The quintessential (as Charlie Cook correctly puts it) bellweather race.  Neither party has been advertising here at all, yet this is the race to watch for a national wave, imho.
31. PA-08
32. FL-22 - To echo another refrain:  There has been so much money spent here.
33. NY-20
34. AZ-05
35. MN-01
36. NY-25
37. NH-02 - Another race where I really don't know where to put. 
38. ID-01 (open)
39. CA-11 - Even if no wave occurs, this could well be a surprise.
40. AZ-01
41. NV-03
42. WY-AL - If a wave occurs, expect this seat to be the benchmark.  The wave would pick up a couple of seats below and leave a couple of seats above hanging, but overall 40-45 would be the correct number.
43. OH-02
44. CO-04
45. NV-02 (open)
46. PA-04
47. OH-12
48. CO-05 (open)
49. NY-19
50. IA-02
51. NY-03
52. VA-10
53. NC-08
54. IL-10
55. NJ-07

Likely R
56. NE-03 (open)
57. TX-23
58. KY-02
59. CA-04
60. KS-02

Additional House Races to Examine (not in any order)
1. CA-50
2. FL-08
3. FL-09 (open)
4. IL-11
5. IN-03
6. MI-08
7. MN-02
8. NE-01
9. OH-14
10. WV-02

Top GOP opportunities

Lean Dem
1. IL-08
2. GA-12
3. GA-08
4. IA-03
5. VT-AL (open)
6. OR-05
7. IN-07
8. LA-03
9. WV-01

The GOP List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. CO-03
2. IL-17 (open)
3. LA-02
4. NC-13
5. TX-17
6. SC-05

Prediction (as of October 30, 2006)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
CT-04
FL-13 (open)
FL-16 (open)
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
NC-11
NM-01
NY-24 (open)
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
WI-08 (open)

Republican gains
None

110th House
224D, 211R

If there's a wave folks, expect the number of seats lost to double, roughly.

I'm taking next Wednesday off so I can stay up late Tuesday night and watch the aftermath unfold on MSNBC, Fox, etc. on TV on Wednesday. I'll use your cheatsheet to follow along. Thanks for all your hard work. I know I speak for everyone in saying we appreciate your organization of this.

[Sam Spade]

Thank you for the kind words.  I will, of course, update this before the election.

I am also working on preparing a cheat sheet of races (Senate, Governor, House, probably not state houses, too much work) I will be watching on Tuesday in the order they come in.

This will include the obvious races and the long shots.

[Gustaf]

We would then get this electoral map for the House. 24 Dem delegations, 23 Rep and 3 tied (changed from 17-30-3)

[Sam Spade]

The House races are taking me a little time to work through and distill information.  I should have the final prediction out Monday night. 

Same with the Senate, except I'm going to give a new update concerning the contested Senate seats right now and final predictions on Monday.  These predictions are placed in where I think the races lie within each category.

Likely D
Michigan (safe D to likely D) - I'm going to stick this one back in here simply because money is being spent on it.  I do not think it really has any chance of switching.

Lean D
Rhode Island - Probably gone for the Republicans, but as I'll say again, I really don't believe Zogby.
New Jersey (from Toss-up to Lean D) - Menendez is probably up by 5-6.  Corzine's rising approval ratings are helping also.
Maryland - Either Cardin's up 5-6 or the race is tied.  I lean towards the former, with a eye that the latter could well be true.  The Lean D seat I am the least comfortable about.

Toss-up (Lean D)
Missouri - 3 polls have McCaskill up, 2 polls have the race tied after some polls showing Talent up.  I give the slightest of margins to McCaskill, but this one is going to probably come down to turnout.

Pure Toss-up
Montana (from Lean D to Toss-up) - Momentum means a lot in my game and right now Burns has all of it.
Virginia - This race is really anybody's guess.  I have Vorlon's comments in the back of my mind, though.

Lean R
Tennessee - What's happened here is that the flirting TN Republicans made with Ford is now over and they've returned back home.  This is not an 8-10 point race, it is more like a 4-5 point race, but when it's all over with, the margin could certainly be bigger.
Arizona - Basically in the same boat as Tennessee, though I think Kyl has a slightly larger lead.

Prediction (as of November 4, 2006)
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Rhode Island
Missouri
Virginia

Republican gains
None

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Senate
50R, 48D, 2 I

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Based on those gains, it'd be 50 R, 48 D, 2 I

[Sam Spade]

Based on those gains, it'd be 50 R, 48 D, 2 I

Right.  Forgot to modify my cut and paste. 

[Nym90]

I have to wonder if some of the late movement in the Senate races is simply voters coming back home to their natural "preferred" party. It seems most of the Senate races are moving back toward the natural partisan predilection of their states. Rhode Island and New Jersey moving toward the Democrats, while Montana and Tennessee move toward the Republicans.

[Sam Spade]

I have to wonder if some of the late movement in the Senate races is simply voters coming back home to their natural "preferred" party. It seems most of the Senate races are moving back toward the natural partisan predilection of their states. Rhode Island and New Jersey moving toward the Democrats, while Montana and Tennessee move toward the Republicans.

Of course it's a possibility.  I am only observing what I see, not giving generic reasons for why I think it's happening, except where the movement is clearly extrapolated to some occurrence of some sort.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another possible explanation is that Ford, Tester and Kean were all over-rated and benefited from something like a media bubble, which has either burst or seems likely to.

[NHPolitico]

Another possible explanation is that Ford, Tester and Kean were all over-rated and benefited from something like a media bubble, which has either burst or seems likely to.

The thing I couldn't understand about Montana is that they are practically a forgotten state like North Dakota or something and Burns is not only on the  Appropriations Committee, but he's the chair of a subcommittee there and he has made use of that position of influence by bringing a lot of money to the state. Similar to CT considering the idea of throwing out Lieberman for a bottom of the totem pole guy like Lamont.  Lieberman and Burns have both made an issue of the money they have brought back to their small influence states. I understand why he's vulnerable, like with Lieberman, but small state voters have to look at the big picture, too, and Lieberman and Burns are far more useful to them in power than they are out of power.