Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think the Republicans can take NJ or MD.

[Sam Spade]

My House prediction work is finally done.  As you will have noticed, based on some polls and other news this week, a couple of races (on the GOP side) have dropped off the top 40, whereas others have entered.  Some commentary will be added, where necessary:

House
Top 40 Dem opportunities

Likely D
1. TX-22 (open)
2. AZ-08 (open)

Lean D
3. IA-01 (open)
4. IN-02 - others have the three Indiana races in different orders, not all people have them this high, but most would rate in the top 10.  I personally think they are the next likeliest three pickups after the top 3, but this is just me.
5. IN-09
6. CO-07 (open) - I originally had this in toss-up,  but I'm correcting with the new SUSA poll out today (showing Perlmutter up 17).  It could be an outlier, looking at the old SUSA and C-D results, or it might be correct and the others were wrong.  Hard to tell without more polls.
7. IN-08

Toss-Up - A long list here...
8. PA-06 - In the next three contests, we have C-D polls which showed a much better result for the D candidate than their own internals conducted at the same time.  For this reason, I am really undecided where to put these, so I'm leaving in Toss-Up.   The D candidates are strong. 
9. CT-02
10. PA-10
11. NY-24 (open)
12. NC-11
13. KY-04
14. IL-06 (open) - I would call this the closest thing to a true toss-up right now in the House (other people have agreed), so everything before this should be considered >50% of Dem takeover, and everything after should be considered <50% of Dem takeover.
15. OH-01
16. VA-02 - I have a hard time right now figuring where this race really is.
17. OH-15 - Same here.
18. WI-08 (open)
19. CT-04 - Shays is polling well and doing the right things, but the CD is just brutal.
20. PA-07 - I can't figure this race out either without more polls.
21. WA-08 - SUSA said Reichert was up 13, C-D said Burner was up 8.  The Congressman in the most comparable situation to Reichert is Drake (VA-02), as freshman congressman.  Drake's is higher because she is a lesser candidate and her opponent in Kellam is much stronger than Burner.

Lean R
22. NM-01 - Most people still have Heather in toss-up.  I don't.
23. FL-22 - Shaw polls well, but
24. CO-04
25. CT-05 - Without polling, this is the race I'm most unsure about.
26. MN-06 (open) - SUSA says Bachmann is ahead.
27. OH-18 (open) - Zach Space is an bad candidate, but will Ohio Republicans take their new nominee down.
28. PA-08
29. FL-13 (open)
30. AZ-05
31. OH-02
32. WY-AL
33. NV-02 (open) - With the two recent polls, this race makes an arrival.
34. KY-03
35. NV-03

Likely R
36. NY-20 - For some reason, the NY landslide that's occurring for the Dems is doing nothing to help their Congressional candidates.  Life is funny sometimes.
37. NY-25
38. NY-29
39. NJ-07
40. TX-23 - Democrats have had major problems here, all told.

Below this, these are the various reasons that I could see making the top 40 all told, or are races to keep an eye on, even though they are further down.  There are a couple of races that could squeeze into this list of 20, but right now, I simply don't see it.

The Dem List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. AZ-01 - Dropped from my list this week, it could get back on soon enough.
2. CA-04 - Once again, corruption issues.
3. CA-11 - Underfunded candidate against corrupt R in marginal CD.  Dems have ignored so far.
4. CO-05 (open) - Retiring incumbent in ultra-safe Rep CD refuses to endorse Rep running because of negative advertising in primary.  A rare reason to put it on the list, but it's here until polls indicate otherwise.
5. FL-08 - It's on Novak's list.
6. FL-09 (open) - Removed this week because of an SUSA poll out today shows Bilirakis up 27% (it was already low on the list anyway).  Unless this is an outlier, it might be gone for good.
7. FL-16 - Another marginal CD.
8. IA-02 - Marginal CD (to put it mildly).
9. ID-01 (open) - ultra-Rep CD, but R candidate has pissed off almost everyon in the GOP.  Amusing.
10. IL-10 - As you've probably noticed, most of these are marginal seats or open ones.  If a wave occurs, these are the next likeliest ones to fall after the big fish.
11. IL-11 - Read above.
12. KY-02 - Yawn.
13. MN-01 - Marginal district, challenger with some money.
14. NE-01 - Least Rep CD in NE, well-funded challenger.
15. NH-02 - Only here because Dem has money.  Polls have not looked good for Dems, though.
16. NY-03 - Smash's favorite CD.
17. NY-19 - Just for the Dem year in NY reason...
18. NY-26 - Same.
19. OH-12 - Marginal CD in bad year for OH Reps.
20. VA-10 - Dem here has good cash reserve.

Top 10 GOP opportunities

Toss-Up
1. IL-08

Lean Dem
2. GA-08
3. VT-AL (open)
4. WV-01
5. GA-12
6. TX-17
7. IA-03
8. OH-06 (open)
9. LA-03
10. SC-05

The GOP List of Hopes (not in any order) - A much smaller list.
1. CO-03
2. HI-02 (open)
3. KS-03
4. IL-17 (open)
5. LA-02 - Only if the Republican and Jefferson make it into the runoff.
6. NC-13
7. OH-13 (open)
8. PA-12
9. WA-02
10.  I'd like to make it an even number, but I can't really find a seat worth mentioning. 

I am toning down my prediction a couple of seats because of polling in a few races...

Prediction (as of September 24, 2006)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
NY-24 (open)
OH-01
OH-15
PA-06
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
VA-02
WI-08 (open)
WY-AL

Republican gains
IL-08

110th Congress
218D, 217R

[Deano963]

Sam did you see the new poll that came out on OH-18 yesterday? I think you should at least have this race rated as a tossup, as it is hard to call a race "Leans R" when the R is down by double digits IMO. Besides that I agree with basically everything.

Tried to put in a link to the poll for you, but now I can't find it anywhere! Sorry.

[Sam Spade]

Sam did you see the new poll that came out on OH-18 yesterday? I think you should at least have this race rated as a tossup, as it is hard to call a race "Leans R" when the R is down by double digits IMO. Besides that I agree with basically everything.

Tried to put in a link to the poll for you, but now I can't find it anywhere! Sorry.

The only poll that I've seen for the race that is relevant is the internal Zach Space poll, saying that he was ahead 45%-31% against the newly-minted Republican nominee.  If you're talking about the I do not count the C-D poll, which polled Zach Space against a generic Republican candidate, because you know what I think of polling with generic candidates.  They are less than useless.

Also, you should know what I think about internal polls on House races without any separate Independent polls I halfway trust and you know that I don't move races based on them.  Notice I haven't moved PA-07 because of a Weldon internal poll showing him up 17 or 19, I forget which, because there hasn't been an independent poll in the race yet.

But I have more basis to work with. 

Here are the things that are working in favor of Zach Space:
- Overall attitude in Ohio against Republicans.
- Time that Zach Space has had to raise money and run ads while the Ohio GOP has to raise money. (though he is still underfunded)

Things working against Zach Space:
- That he is a third-tier candidate in the mold of other crappy candidates like Francine Busby and Randy Graf, to quote people you may know.
- An opponent who seems to understand the positions she will have to take to win and is fairly well-known within the CD already.
- Natural Republican lean of the CD.

The third-tier candidate status (which granted is my opinion, but I am rarely wrong on this) is the strongest point against him, and most likely it will be nearly impossible for him to overcome that, imo.

[Deano963]

You're putting far, far to much importance on your opinion that he is a third-tier candidate, IMO. Even if that is true - which is very debatable - many, many third-tier candidates or worse have been swept to victory in environments like the current one in OH-18, which is an even worse environment for republicans than Ohio overall. Plus you are overestimating the strength of Padgett in that district, and underestimating how incredibly easy it will be for Space to tie her to the Bobs. He's already up with an ad doing this, and it's quite good.

[Sam Spade]

You're putting far, far to much importance on your opinion that he is a third-tier candidate, IMO. Even if that is true - which is very debatable - many, many third-tier candidates or worse have been swept to victory in environments like the current one in OH-18, which is an even worse environment for republicans than Ohio overall. Plus you are overestimating the strength of Padgett in that district, and underestimating how incredibly easy it will be for Space to tie her to the Bobs. He's already up with an ad doing this, and it's quite good.

You may underestimate my opinion at your peril.  Your choice. 

[Sam Spade]

This week, I am listing the Senatorial races in order of closeness.  Of minor note, I have taken Nebraska off the table and put it in safe D.

Senate

Likely D
1. Michigan
2. Minnesota* - SUSA's showing of an 8 point lead has not been backed by anyone.  No change.
3. Washington - I believe the race is under 10 points, which should normally mean a Lean designation, but not for WA.
4. Pennsylvania (R) (from Lean D to Likely D) - A 10 point lead indicates Likely to me, especially when the person down is an incumbent.

Lean D
1. Montana (R)
2. Maryland*
3. Rhode Island (R)
4. Ohio (R) - I suspect this one is moving closer to Toss-up.  The GOP is throwing a lot of money here right now.

Toss-up
1. Missouri (R) - No polls out of here in a while.
2. Tennessee* (R) - Corker continues to underpoll among self-identified GOP voters.  That is the reason why the race is close, not because of Independent voters.

Lean R
1. New Jersey (D) - Even with the Rutgers poll showing Menendez up 1, I still see no reason to move, yet.
2. Virginia - I think the race continues to be where I thought it was before.

Likely R
1. Arizona - No one's matched the SUSA result, so I'm continuing to ignore.

Lean I/D (as opposed to lean D)
1. Connecticut
Prediction (as of October 1, 2006)
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Rhode Island
Montana

Republican gains
None

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Congress
51 R, 47D, 2 I

[Beet]

Thanks Sam Spade. Btw, the latest SUSA poll for WA-08 shows Reichert up 2.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why are listing NJ as Leans GOP but not a gain?  Was that a typo?

[Sam Spade]

Thanks Sam Spade. Btw, the latest SUSA poll for WA-08 shows Reichert up 2.

Thanks for the note, though I did notice it earlier.  The SUSA poll showing him up 13 was an earlier result (taken about 2 months ago) before this week's poll.

I haven't finished completing my changes to the House rankings this week.  Safe to say that a couple of certain races are going on the list and a couple will be taken off.

[Sam Spade]

Why are listing NJ as Leans GOP but not a gain?  Was that a typo?

Just because I see something as being Lean R per the polls does not mean that by November 7 I think will be a gain.

[Beet]

I haven't finished completing my changes to the House rankings this week.  Safe to say that a couple of certain races are going on the list

Hmmm, I wonder which they will be

[Sam Spade]

I haven't finished completing my changes to the House rankings this week.  Safe to say that a couple of certain races are going on the list

Hmmm, I wonder which they will be

Well, I can answer that question right now:  FL-16, NY-26

I'm taking off TX-23 definitely, but I haven't decided on the other.  Probably one of the other NY contests.

[Sam Spade]

House update ain't happening till tomorrow.  Really busy right now. 

[Sam Spade]

On to the House race update. 

As a caveat, in the Senate, the only changes I would make based on today's poll bump is this:
I would put New Jersey (D) into Toss-Up.

I am close to doing either of these three also:
Putting Ohio (R) and Rhode Island (R) into Toss-Up.
Putting Tennessee (R) (open) into Lean D.

But not yet...

Here's the House...
House
Top 40 Dem opportunities

Likely D
1. TX-22 (open)
2. AZ-08 (open)

Lean D
3. IA-01 (open)
4. CO-07 (open)
5. IN-02
6. IN-09
7. IN-08
8. *(new addition) FL-16 (open) - Until I know the candidate who the GOP will replace Foley with, this is as high as I will put this one.  The Dem challenger does have some business dealing problems, as others have noted.  Best candidate for the GOP here is probably Joe Negron, who has nearly $1 million left over from his AG bid, most of which he can probably use in a House campaign.

Toss-Up - A long list here...
9. CT-02
10. PA-10
11. NY-24 (open)
12. PA-06
13. NC-11
14. KY-04
15. IL-06 (open)
16. VA-02
17. PA-07
18. OH-15 (50-50 point)
19. WA-08
20. OH-01
21. WI-08 (open)
22. CT-04
23. NM-01 (cautionary move, though I'm not a fan of ABQ polling)

Lean R
24. FL-22
25. CO-04
26. CT-05
27. MN-06 (open)
28. OH-18 (open)
29. FL-13 (open)
30. PA-08
31. OH-02
32. WY-AL
33. *(new addition) NY-26 - will be placed higher with more polling.
34. NV-02 (open)
35. KY-03
36. AZ-05

Likely R
37. NV-03
38. NY-20
39. NY-25
40. NJ-07

The Dem List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. AZ-01
2. CA-04
3. CA-11
4. CO-05 (open)
6. FL-09 (open)
7. IA-02
8. ID-01 (open)
9. IL-10
10. IL-11
11. KY-02
12. MN-01
13. NC-08
14. NE-01
14. NH-02
15. NY-03
16. NY-19
17. NY-29
18. OH-12
19. TX-23
20. VA-10

Top 10 GOP opportunities

Toss-Up
1. IL-08

Lean Dem
2. GA-08
3. VT-AL (open)
4. WV-01
5. GA-12
6. TX-17
7. IA-03
8. OH-06 (open)
9. LA-03
10. SC-05

The GOP List of Hopes (not in any order) - A much smaller list.
1. CO-03
2. HI-02 (open)
3. KS-03
4. IL-17 (open)
5. LA-02
6. NC-13
7. OH-13 (open)
8. OR-05
9. PA-12
10. WA-02

Prediction (as of October 2, 2006)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
FL-16
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
NY-24 (open)
NY-26
OH-01
OH-15
PA-06
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
VA-02
WI-08 (open)
WY-AL

Republican gains
IL-08

110th Congress
220D, 215R

[Sam Spade]

New update for this week on the Senate.  Not much change, really.  The House is going to take me a little while this week, won't have it until tomorrow at the earlier.

Senate

Likely D
1. Michigan
2. Minnesota*
3. Washington
4. Pennsylvania (R)

Lean D
1. Montana (R)
2. Maryland*
3. Rhode Island (R)
4. Ohio (R)

Toss-up
1. New Jersey (D) (from Lean R to Toss-up) - A lot of wacky results here.  Wait and see time.
2. Missouri (R)
3. Tennessee (R)

Lean R
1. Virginia

Likely R
1. Arizona

Lean I/D (as opposed to lean D)
1. Connecticut - this race is getting closer to Likely I, IMO
Prediction (as of October 8, 2006)
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Rhode Island
Montana
Tennessee*

Republican gains
None

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Congress
50 R, 48D, 2 I

[poughies]

Funny i can say i absolutly agree on the senate with you.......

[Sam Spade]

Funny i can say i absolutly agree on the senate with you.......

These are the rational answers. 

On the edges, the only real questions I have are whether to keep Nebraska at safe D or put it at Likely D because Ricketts can self-fund. 

Also, whether to keep Kyl in Likely or move to Lean.  The parties withdrew all their funds this week from the race, but Kyl is still only up an average of 9%, which to me is barely Lean territory.  Whichever, it's on the edge.

Basically, here's what I see right now:

Two races, PA and MT, that are most likely going to flip, barring something surprising.

The next tier is OH and RI.  OH, regardless of what some polls say, I think is tightening slightly.  It is still Lean D and the statewide environment for the GOP there is just horrible this year.  In RI, I don't know what to believe, because I'm convinced all the polls there are sh**t.  Still, the fact that no poll has Chafee ahead influences me a lot.

Beyond that, we have the four races that I think will decide things:  MO, TN, NJ and VA.  Before, because of the natural leans of the states in question, I would have said the GOP would win 3 out of 4.  But, I think things have changed slightly and that it will split.  Obviously, if the Dems win 3 out of 4, they win the Senate.  I think 4 out of 4 will be very hard unless the national situation changes. (same thing for the GOP to win 4 out of 4).

The races on the outside looking in are Maryland and Arizona.  My gut tells me that Maryland is more likely to be competitive, but I don't think either will, frankly.

[jerusalemcar5]

Personally, I am beginning to reverse earlier statements about Walsh being too popular.  Maffei's campaign is better organized, more widespread, and has more ads that are more powerful.  Just driving around my very Republican town (there are no Dems at any level of government) there are dozens of Maffei signs and I've spotted only one Walsh sign.  Between Foley, Bush, Iraq, and gas, I would say NY-25 is "lean R", maybe even a tossup.

[Sam Spade]

Personally, I am beginning to reverse earlier statements about Walsh being too popular.  Maffei's campaign is better organized, more widespread, and has more ads that are more powerful.  Just driving around my very Republican town (there are no Dems at any level of government) there are dozens of Maffei signs and I've spotted only one Walsh sign.  Between Foley, Bush, Iraq, and gas, I would say NY-25 is "lean R", maybe even a tossup.

As a rule, I do not base any predictions on "anecdotal research" as you have just supplied.  When the one Dem internal poll (though stale) I have says that Walsh is leading, I can't consider it anywhere near toss-up.  However, Walsh will probably be moving to the bottom of Lean R, mainly because I think conditions have slightly worsened for Republicans as of this week.

[jerusalemcar5]

Personally, I am beginning to reverse earlier statements about Walsh being too popular.  Maffei's campaign is better organized, more widespread, and has more ads that are more powerful.  Just driving around my very Republican town (there are no Dems at any level of government) there are dozens of Maffei signs and I've spotted only one Walsh sign.  Between Foley, Bush, Iraq, and gas, I would say NY-25 is "lean R", maybe even a tossup.

As a rule, I do not base any predictions on "anecdotal research" as you have just supplied.  When the one Dem internal poll (though stale) I have says that Walsh is leading, I can't consider it anywhere near toss-up.  However, Walsh will probably be moving to the bottom of Lean R, mainly because I think conditions have slightly worsened for Republicans as of this week.

Oh obviously that's nothing conclusive.  However combined with that poll, and the Foley scandal, I think Walsh is surprisingly vulnerable.  The Dems are pouring a surprisingly high amount of money here as well.  I just think Lean is the only legitimate prediciton that can be made here.

[Sam Spade]

I am increasing my Dem gains by 3.  What is hard to figure right now for me is whether the Foley scandal is long-lasting or whether it is short-term noise.  This will come about by analyzing individual House polls as they arise (not national generics).  By utilizing this method, we can overlook the problems that national polls face in analyzing CD-by-CD numbers.  If the national numbers reflect the CD-by-CD numbers, then there has been a marked national shift, if not, then the shift is probably temporary demoralization.  We could use the same theory in 2000 and 2004 to determine that whereas nationally the Bush margin seemed large, the state polls were not recognizing this imbalance.  This had a lot to do with the demoralization factor.

Secondly, I think the GOP is performing much stronger than I expected in some marginal seats.  At the same time, new seats that were though safe in the past are becoming closer and are requiring GOP moneys to be spent in them.

And now for the House....
House
Top Dem opportunities

Likely D
1. TX-22 (open)
2. AZ-08 (open)

Lean D
3. CO-07 (open)
4. PA-10
5. IN-02
6. NY-26
7. FL-16 (open)
8. IN-08
9. IA-01 (open)
10. IN-09

Toss-Up
11. CT-02
12. NY-24 (open)
13. NC-11
14. PA-06
15. IL-06 (open)
16. PA-07
17. OH-15
18. VA-02
19. OH-18 (open)
20. KY-04
21. WA-08
22. NM-01
23. OH-01
24. WI-08 (open)

Lean R
25. CT-04
26. FL-22
27. MN-06 (open)
28. FL-13 (open)
29. OH-02
30. CT-05
31. CO-04
32. PA-08
33. WY-AL
34. NV-02 (open)
35. NY-20
36. KY-03
37. AZ-05
38. CA-11
39. NY-25
40. CO-05 (open)

The Dem List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. AZ-01
2. CA-04
3. FL-09 (open)
4. IA-02
5. ID-01 (open)
6. IL-10
7. IL-11
8. KY-02
9. MN-01
10. NC-08
11. NE-01
12. NH-02
13. NJ-07
14. CA-04
15. NY-03
16. NY-19
17. NY-29
18. OH-12
19. TX-23
20. VA-10

Top GOP opportunities

Lean Dem
1. IL-08
2. GA-08
3. VT-AL (open)
4. WV-01
5. GA-12
6. IA-03
7. TX-17
8. OR-05
9. LA-03
10. OH-06 (open)

The GOP List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. CO-03
2. HI-02 (open)
3. KS-03
4. IL-17 (open)
5. LA-02
6. NC-13
7. OH-13 (open)
8. PA-12
9. SC-05
10. WA-02

Prediction (as of October 10, 2006)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
FL-16 (open)
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
NC-11
NY-24 (open)
NY-26
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
VA-02
WI-08 (open)
WY-AL

Republican gains
IL-08

110th House
223D, 212R

[Sam Spade]

After working this through, I'm choosing to remake my list at 40 again.  Sorry for the confusion, folks.  I am also repositioning KY-04 based on the new SUSA poll. 

[Mr. Morden]

One thing you might want to change in your list is change FL16 to "open".  I know the incumbent's name is on the ballot, but effectively the seat is open.

It's also interesting how many of the Democrats' top targets in the South and West are in open seats, as compared to the Midwest and Northeast, where the targets are more likely to be incumbents.  9 of the top 10 most vulnerable GOP incumbents on your list are in either the Midwest or Northeast.  Taylor is the one exception.

[Nym90]

Sam, just curious, but why do you list Wyoming at large as Lean R yet believe it will go Democratic, whereas several tossup seats are predicted to be Republican holds? Also, IL-8 being considered Lean D but yet predicted to be a GOP gain.

I do realize your ratings are based on where you feel the races stand at this moment, not an ultimate prediction of where things will be come November 7, so that's the reason why the predictions are not congruent with the rankings. But I am still curious why you think the Democrats will come back in Wyoming, and why the GOP will come back in IL-8. Also, why IL-6 will stay GOP when it's ranked as the 15th most vulnerable GOP seat (which would seem in theory then to make it the "tipping point" and the one single most critical seat in determining the majority).