Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[Sam Spade]

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Senate:
Safe D
California Feinstein (D) 61, Mountjoy (R) 35, Other 4
Delaware Carper (D) 64, Ting (R) 34, Other 2
Florida Bill Nelson (D) 61, Harris (R) 37, Other 2
Hawaii Akaka (D) 61, Thielen (R) 37, Other 2
Massachusetts Kennedy (D) 67, Chase (R) 31, Other 2
Minnesota* Klobuchar (D) 54, Kennedy (R) 42, Other 4
Nebraska Ben Nelson (D) 56, Ricketts (R) 43, Other 1
New Mexico Bingaman (D) 64, McCulloch (R) 34, Other 2
New York Clinton (D) 66, Spencer (R) 31, Other 3
North Dakota Conrad (D) 69, Grotberg (R) 26, Other 5
Ohio (R) Brown (D) 55, DeWine (R) 44, Other 1
Pennsylvania (R) Casey (D) 55, Santorum (R) 45
Washington Cantwell (D) 55, McGavick (R) 42, Other 3
West Virginia Byrd (D) 63, Raese (R) 35, Other 2
Wisconsin Kohl (D) 65, Lorge (R) 31, Other 4

Likely D
Michigan Stabenow (D) 54, Bouchard (R) 45, Other 1

Lean D
New Jersey Menendez (D) 52, Kean (R) 46, Other 2

Tossup (Lean D)
Virginia Webb (D) 49.9, Allen (R) 48.3, Other 2.6
Montana Tester (D) 49.5, Burns (R) 48.4, Other 2.1
Maryland* Steele (R) 49.5, Cardin (D) 48.6, Other 1.9
Rhode Island Chafee (R) 50.1, Whitehouse (D) 48.4, Other 1.4

Toss-up (Pure)
Missouri McCaskill (D) 49.6, Talent (R) 49.3, Other 1.1

Lean R
Tennessee* Corker (R) 53, Ford (D) 46, Other 1
Arizona Kyl (R) 54, Pederson (D) 45, Other 1

Likely R
None

Safe R
Indiana Lugar (R) 91, Other 9
Maine Snowe (R) 72, Bright (D) 25, Other 3
Mississippi Lott (R) 63, Fleming (D) 36, Other 1
Nevada Ensign (R) 56, Carter (D) 43, Other 1
Texas Hutchinson (R) 62, Radnofsky (D) 37, Other 1
Utah Hatch (R) 64, Ashdown (D) 34, Other 2
Wyoming Thomas (R) 68, Groutage (D) 28, Other 4

Safe I
Vermont* Sanders (D/I) 62, Tarrant (R) 35, Other 3

Likely I
Connecticut Lieberman (CFL) 49, Lamont (D) 40, Schlesinger (R) 10, Other 1
Final Prediction
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Virginia
Montana
Missouri

Republican gains
Maryland

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Senate
51 R, 47D, 2 I
FINAL PREDICTIONS - HOUSE
* indicates change of party
GOP Seats
Likely D
1. AZ-08* (open)
2. CO-07* (open)

Lean D
3. PA-10*
4. IN-08*
5. IA-01* (open)
6. PA-07*
7. OH-18* (open)
8. OH-15*
9. NY-24* (open)
10. IN-02*
11. TX-22* (open)

Toss-up (Lean D)
12. FL-16 (open)
13. NM-01*
14. NC-11*
15. CT-05*
16. NH-02*
17. PA-06*
18. FL-13 (open)*
19. CT-04*

Toss-up (Pure)
20. NY-20*
21. OH-01*
22. FL-22
23. CT-02
24. AZ-05*
25. KY-03*
26. IN-09
27. IL-06 (open)
28. WI-08 (open)

Toss-up (Lean R)
29. VA-02
30. PA-08
31. NY-26
32. NY-25*
33. ID-01 (open)
34. CA-11*
35. OH-02
36. WY-AL

Lean R
37. NY-29
38. CO-04
39. KY-04
39. WA-08
41. KS-02
42. OH-12
43. PA-04
44. MN-01
45. MN-06 (open)
46. KY-02
47. NE-03 (open)
48. AZ-01
49. NY-19
50. IL-10
51. IA-02
52. NV-03
53. NC-08
54. NY-03
55. NV-02 (open)
56. VA-10
57. WA-05
58. CA-04
59. CO-05 (open)

Likely R
60. TX-23
61. NJ-07
62. IN-03
63. MI-07 (open)
64. NH-01
65. FL-09 (open)
66. NE-01
67. FL-08
68. MI-08
69. IL-11
70. NY-13
71. MI-09
72. NJ-05
73. CA-50
74. WV-02
75. IA-04

Dem Seats
Toss-up
1. IL-08
2. GA-08
3. GA-12*

Lean D
4. VT-AL
5. IA-03
6. IN-07
7. OR-05
8. WV-AL
9. TX-17

Likely D
10. IL-17 (open)
11. LA-03
12. CO-03
13. NC-13
14. SC-05
15. KS-03
16. LA-02

House Pickups
Dems (+24)
AZ-05
AZ-08 (open)
CA-11
CO-07 (open)
CT-04
CT-05
FL-13
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
NC-11
NH-02
NM-01
NY-20
NY-24 (open)
NY-25
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22 (open)

GOP (+1)
GA-12

110th Congress
226 D, 209 R

[Sam Spade]

All things have been corrected, and I have also added my personal predictions, which I meant to do when I posted the thread...

Sounds good. I see you have a 3 seat Democratic pickup that go up to  5 seats. What are your thoughts on Harold Ford?

Right now, my prediction would be 4 seats.  3 seats would not be unreasonable, neither would five seats.

Harold Ford will need some help to win because the natural demographics of Tennessee are really against him.  Also, we only have one poll showing him within 6, after all of the pre-primary polls showing him -10 or lower.  Normally, I am leery of making changes because of one poll, but it's been nearly a month, so I feel like I have to.

[Sam Spade]

Anxiously awaiting your House predictions, Sam.  I made a little spreadsheet from the last set of predictions I saw you post, and it needs to be updated. 

Here, though, I'm only going to be listing the top 40 GOP and top 10 Dem, in no particular order and after that, stating which ones will be defeated.

Even though there are going to be certain races right now below the top 50 that will certainly move up into the top 50 (as others fall out), I'm not really going to go into that kind of detail now.

For example, MN-01 and MN-02 can be considered on the outside looking in right now.  But if, say, MN-01 has a indy poll out showing Kalz within 3 points of Gutknecht and say, another poll comes out showing Weichert with a double-digit lead in WA-08, you may well see a change.

What this is, similar to a poll, is a snapshot in time.

[Sam Spade]

I have added House predictions.  Remember that in the House, my predictions are idiosyncratic.  This means, in my mind, that a House race may be lower-ranked on my actual list (WY-AL) than some others (CT-04), but that I think at this time the lower-ranked one stands a better chance of being lost.

[Sam Spade]

Although I'm not a Republican, the observation that I would make is that the geographical distribution of voters within Tennessee is what should theoretically give Corker an advantage in the race.

The growth of the Nashville suburbs and the impact it had on Central Tennessee in the 1990s fundamentally changed the dynamics of the Tennessee political spectrum.  After all, Eastern Tennessee has voted Republican for nearly forever and Western Tennessee has voted Democratic for nearly forever.  Central Tennessee was the swing area.

As the Nashville suburbs grew, Tennessee became more and more Republican.  As Al is fond of noting, suburbs in the South are much more Republican and conservative than rural areas, and the growth of the suburbs in Tennessee has laid Democratic chances bare for the last 12 years, with the exception of Gov. Phil Bredesen, who, not surprisingly, is from Central Tennessee.

To sum up, a candidate from Western Tennessee has a lot of geographical disadvantages to overcome, something not even a perfect campaign may fully eliminate.  It's one of the reasons why I consider Virginia a better shot than Tennessee, on the whole.

[Sam Spade]

What pops out at me is NY-29 on your list. Have you seen a poll or something?  This is the most GOP seat in New York, per its voting patterns. The Weldon seat also needs a poll in my mind to get a handle on it, but it is certainly in play, and Weldon is controversial.

NY-29 is sort of one of those "out there" picks (I'm allowed a couple for this point in the contest).  I have no polls on the contest.

My rationale is two-fold: First, the GOP environment in NY this year will be horrid, maybe the worst in this country outside Ohio.  That already puts a number of seats in that state more on the list than one might expect.

Second, Kuhl is a freshman Rep. running for re-election who only got 51% in 2004 (while Bush was getting 56%).  As of right now, I am not predicting a national wave, more of a regional wave that affects the Ohio River Valley area and the Northeast suburbs.  Freshman Reps. historically are the most vulnerable to these waves, which is why I'm putting him above a few others in my "prediction game".

I agree in terms of what is needed to get a feel of the Weldon seat, but right now I have to consider (all factors given) that PA-07 is more vulnerable than PA-08, mainly because Fitzpatrick is proving himself to be an above-average incumbent under the circumstances (even though he is a freshman).

I guess my overall comment is going to be (in general to other posters, not just you, Torie):  Don't take my predictions too seriously right now; look at the bottom line seats that appear to be vulnerable.  I will occasionally throw things that potentially seem "out there" if I get a feeling that something may be occurring in the background that others aren't catching onto.  It's my way of trying to beat the system. 

I'll try to update this (and the Senate) every week or so until election day.

[Sam Spade]

Great job, Sam Spade! Much credit for your excellent predictions.

It is a prediction that will undoubtedly change each and every week, but alas, it is a prediction from someone like me who hates predicting. 

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Not even this will save Shays in my view.  However, it is a possibility.

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I would advise you to look at what has been going on with the two front-runners for the GOP nomination.

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Even I will admit this prediction is kinda "out there" right now, even though I have my reasons for putting it there.  Maybe I should just highlight each week a race that is not on everyone's radar, and give some reasons why I think it could be on that radar soon enough.

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Cubin has consistently underperformed the GOP margins year after year in this state (9% in 2004) and she only got 60% in the primary this past week.  Her opponent also has money (something which I can't say for Schmidt's opponent in OH-02).

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NM-01:  The main reason right now why I think Wilson will survive is because she is a "survivor" from a number of tough races in the past, and, absent a national "wave", which I don't see right now, these attributes come more into play.  Secondly, Madrid is getting hammered at home and by Wilson for the scandal problems within the Richardson admin. and really hasn't done a good job of defending herself there.  Still, it's quite fair to predict she'll lose. 

KY-04:  We're dealing here with two people who are fairly well known by everyone, so there's no "name recognition" factor.  My own personal opinion right now is that Lucas will poll at his strongest point early in the race and will poll less well further in, and I don't think his slight advantage right now will be enough to offset this as time moves along.  Of course, Novak thinks the race is already pretty much over, so there's someone for your camp. 

[Sam Spade]

Thanks for your comments. What about Corker's failures as a candidate? Don't his failures as Mayor combined with the national climate put this race in play?

Once again, these are assumptions.  There is no proof presently that Corker's supposed (and I use supposed, because it's the correct word here) failures as a candidate and as a Mayor have affected him in any ways vis-a-vis the actual race.  There is also no proof that anyone's been paying attention to anything that has been done in this political race over the past month.  The only way we would know this is through polling.

The last poll we have of Tennessee is nearly a month old, showing Corker +6.  The previous three polls to this were conducted three weeks prior to that, right before the primary, and showed Corker @ +13, +12 and +7 respectively.  It is frankly, improper for me to assume without further basis, that the +6 number Rasmussen put out is representative of the race.  It could be greater, much greater, the same, less or much less than that margin now.  It is simply one data point in a stream.

Still, it's what I have to work with, and so with the other information, including other polling data and present campaign information, such as you have provided, I can try and piece together a picture of the race.  Also within that picture is the overall framework of the state itself, as I have provided above and possible national implications.

With regards to the national picture, I would comment that the overall picture looks bad for Republicans, but it does not look "dire" at present, dire translating into national "wave" potential for our purposes (I am predicting a "regional wave" right now, but that "wave" could either grow or collapse).  Secondly, when waves do occur, they do not occur at equal frequencies everywhere.  Some places receive greater amounts of movement, some less, some none.  Perhaps Tennessee will be an area of great wave potential, or maybe the wave here will be less than nationally found.

These are just some things to think about when examining what and what might not happen in Tennessee or any other race for that matter.

[Sam Spade]

I have moved Washington to Likely D.

[Sam Spade]

Time for my weekly update.  My final predictions have not changed at this time, so I won't be talking about anything there.  I will also only be posting and talking about races that are not in the Safe column for either party.  This now encompasses 15 Senate seats, 8 Republican, 6 Democrat and one fight between two Democrats (DINOs both ).

Afterwards, though I may not get to this tonight, I'll post on the House races too, as well as my commentary for the week.

Senate

Likely D
Nebraska - not much a-changing here
Washington (from Lean R last week)- McGavick's gaffe concerning his DWI release has left us with two straight polls showing him down 15+, after being only down by 5 before.  I believe the polling results complimenting each other.  At the end of the week, a story came out questioning some Cantwell dealings.  Will this affect things further?  I don't know.  Supposedly only those people who live south of Washington in Virginia know.  What do they say?.  Let the polls decide!

Lean D
Maryland - The primary could change this race.  If Mfume wins, I will put this in toss-up unless a couple of polls beckons me not to.
Michigan - We had a Rasmussen poll showing Granholm up 8, with 51%.  This race is, most likely, on the cusp between Lean and Likely, but in those situations I always opt for the more competitive designation.
Minnesota - No polls here for a while.
Montana (R) - Same as Minnesota, other than the fact the Montana is a Republican state (sort of), I can't figure out how Burns has stayed so close since he says at least one gaffe a week.  Maybe the rule is the more gaffes you make, the less effect they have on your political standing.  At some point, they're positives even! (sort of the Patty Murray/Tom Coburn rule)
Ohio (R) - Haven't seen a poll out of here in a while either.  IIRC, DeWine and Burns held a fundraiser a couple of nights ago together.  Was probably pretty entertaining.
Pennsylvania (R) - I finally watched the Santorum-Casey debate.  My opinion:  A solid Santorum win, but not spectacular.  Santorum was a bit overactive at times, but in command of the issues and came across as intelligent without being snobbish (one of my great flaws ).  My impression of Casey:  When he first appeared on the screen and talked, I was thinking, he's not too bad of a guy, seems sensible, certainly not as bad as Phil, etc. portrays him.  However, the more I watched him, the more it felt like he was...  Let me put it this way.  He has a way of talking into the camera that leaves the impression he thinks he's better than you are.  That's not the kind of impression you want to leave, imo.  Maybe it's just me who felt this, but normally my gut impressions are what others fell also.

Oh, and also, Santorum's ads are really much better than Casey's.

Toss-up
Missouri (R) - Battle of the gaffes this week.  Talent says no amnesty=amnesty and McCaskill says that GWB didn't go into New Orleans fast enough because he didn't want to really save the black people.  Considering I still don't know what amnesty really means (does anyone), I would call the loser McCaskill in this battle.
New Jersey (D) - Too heavily discussed this week for to really say much, except that federal probes don't help you win races.
Rhode Island (R) - The primary is everything here, in case you hadn't noticed.

Lean R
Tennessee - More polls out of Tennessee please.  M-D, SUSA, I urge you.  Btw, for those of you who didn't read the Rasmussen premium numbers and believe them totally, I will take the chance to note that Ford pretty much has his base (Democrats) totally lined behind him, whereas Corker (Republicans) doesn't.  It's a trend I've noticed a good bit in Senate polls of late, and should be a good measuring mark for how the races materialize later on.  Who these Republicans are is an unknown right now, but the general rule as to what they do if they're never won over is that most of them stay home come election day.  Just for future reference...

Virginia - Allen clearly has a slight lead outside of MOE.  Webb's first ad is very, very good, and I doubt the Nancy Reagan thing hurts him much.  He still needs to work on the money (money) problem.

Likely R
Arizona - ASU showed it within 10.  I don't pay any attention to ASU, but it's there.

Lean I/D (as opposed to lean D)
Connecticut - Internal POS showed Lieberman up by 16.  Unfortunately, that poll is a POS.

[Sam Spade]

I have not had the time to go into detail in the House races, but I would point out this quite important article in the NYT today, detailing that Democrats are thinking much less of their chances in picking up some of NY's 7 GOP house seats up for real contest (actually, Fossella is quite safe anyway).

The only seat the DCCC is spending big money on is NY-24 (open), the other races have totally been avoided in their $50 million buy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/nyregion/11house.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=todayspaper

For this reason, I am downgrading most of the NY seats right now a slight bit, and adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
Anyway, the numbers this week.  Without any giant new polling efforts in my mind (separate the RT Strategies poll), I have kept the 50 top races the same.

I have switched three Rep seats that will fall, but the numbers stay the same.  I have removed NY-29 and FL-13 and added VA-02 and CT-02
Prediction (as of Labor Day, September 4)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
CT-04
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
MN-06 (open)
NY-24 (open)
OH-01
OH-15
PA-06
PA-07
TX-22 (open)
VA-02
WI-08 (open)
WY-AL

Republican gains
IL-08

110th Congress
220D, 215R

[Sam Spade]

Update for September 17.  Still no moves to Safe D/R, taking races off the table.  FWIW, my total prediction stays the same:  Dems +4, with MT, OH, PA and RI falling.

Senate

Likely D
Michigan (from Lean D last week)
Nebraska
Washington

Lean D
Maryland
Minnesota - Still no polls here for a while.
Montana (R) - We get a Rasmussen poll, but what I want is M-D.
Ohio (R) - Not much happening here yet.
Pennsylvania (R) - No polls from here in a while either.

Toss-up
Missouri (R)
Rhode Island (R)
Tennesse (R) - From Lean R last week

Lean R
New Jersey (D) - I know, I know.  But it's what's the polls say (even with NJ bias).  I still think the Dems pull a Torricelli and pull it out.
Virginia - Didn't watch the MTP debate today, yet.

Likely R
Arizona

Lean I/D (as opposed to lean D)
Connecticut

[Sam Spade]

I am dropping PA-07 and replacing it with PA-10, because I believe that's the more competitive race at the moment (gut feeling).  At the same time, it's kind of funny, but on the whole Democrats really aren't performing very in House polls, as opposed to the Senate, so my prediction may drop next time if this trend continues.  I still see no big "wave" forming.

Prediction (as of September 17, 2006)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
CT-04
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
MN-06 (open)
NY-24 (open)
OH-01
OH-15
PA-06
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
VA-02
WI-08 (open)
WY-AL

Republican gains
IL-08

110th Congress
220D, 215R

[Sam Spade]

I should add that I am removing NH-02 from the list of 40 most vulnerable and adding AZ-01.

[Sam Spade]

I should add that I am removing NH-02 from the list of 40 most vulnerable and adding AZ-01.

Actually, I think your predictions are consistent with a "wave" with a net gain of 17 seats.  I'm finding it hard to believe that the Dems are going to win some of those, but maybe I'm putting too much stock in voting patterns of previous, probably more GOP-friendly years.

In a sense, you are correct.  My predictions do correlate with a wave, but a wave which occurs on a close-in "regional" sense, rather than a "national" kind of change.  The center of that wave, through my predictions, seems to be centered in the Ohio River Valley, in Indiana and Ohio and some Northeast suburbs.

However, I will readily admit that most of the polling information I see is not showing an Ohio Valley wave in Congress, rather just an Indiana-only wave.  And otherwise nationwide, the polling in a number of Congressional CD's has been pretty weak all told for Dems, unless you want to take the Constituent Dynamics numbers as gold and I don't, for a number of reasons I'm mentioned before.  It's kind of odd that this is opposite the Senate polling, which has not been good for Republicans of late.  I'm trying to reconcile it, but I can't.

Frankly, absent a mini-regional wave or a national one, I find it hard to give the Democrats more than 12 or 13 seats in House, and this is including other seats (KY-04 and NC-11, for example) that other experts think are going to fall that I don't.

[Sam Spade]

I should add that I am removing NH-02 from the list of 40 most vulnerable and adding AZ-01.

Actually, I think your predictions are consistent with a "wave" with a net gain of 17 seats.  I'm finding it hard to believe that the Dems are going to win some of those, but maybe I'm putting too much stock in voting patterns of previous, probably more GOP-friendly years.

In a sense, you are correct.  My predictions do correlate with a wave, but a wave which occurs on a close-in "regional" sense, rather than a "national" kind of change.  The center of that wave, through my predictions, seems to be centered in the Ohio River Valley, in Indiana and Ohio and some Northeast suburbs.

However, I will readily admit that most of the polling information I see is not showing an Ohio Valley wave in Congress, rather just an Indiana-only wave.  And otherwise nationwide, the polling in a number of Congressional CD's has been pretty weak all told for Dems, unless you want to take the Constituent Dynamics numbers as gold and I don't, for a number of reasons I'm mentioned before.  It's kind of odd that this is opposite the Senate polling, which has not been good for Republicans of late.  I'm trying to reconcile it, but I can't.

Frankly, absent a mini-regional wave or a national one, I find it hard to give the Democrats more than 12 or 13 seats in House, and this is including other seats (KY-04 and NC-11, for example) that other experts think are going to fall that I don't.

As of September, there seems to a be a Midwest and Northeast centered wave. PA, IN, CT and OH have a combined 13 close House seats. The reason taking back the House is so hard for Democrats is that they will have to beat entrenched incumbents like Deborah Pryce in OH-15 and Nancy Johnson in CT-5.

That's what I thought I was seeing, but then I realized that the polling and internal campaign commentary only has seemed to match this analysis in IN.  In the other states, it's kind of fallen flat.  I'm not taking this into account yet, but rest assured, if it continues I will.

[Sam Spade]

During my next update, I will attempt to try and rank the competitive House seats by some sort of system.  There are some House seats that I am quite unsure of right now, though, but it's an attempt. 

[Sam Spade]

We're now six weeks out and as in the Gubernatorial thread, I'm now posting on all the Senate races out there for probably the next-to-last time.  Some detailed comments are going to be made.

I probably won't be able to get to the House prediction till tomorrow.  I'm still putting together the ranked list and ordering:

You'll notice my prediction has not changed in the Senate.
Senate

Safe D
California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely D
Michigan
Minnesota* (from Lean D to Likely D) - Let me repeat.  I don't like moving races based on the Star-Tribune and HHH polls, which are totally crappy and worthless, but they say what they say.  If another poll from SUSA or M-D comes out showing the race under 10, I'm moving it back.
Nebraska - I argue with myself as to whether to put this in Safe D or Likely D.  The fact that Ricketts can put up a lot of money if he wants to is the only thing keeping it here.
Washington - Another poll verifying the Rasmussen numbers and I'll put it back down in Lean D.

Lean D
Maryland* - We have Rasmussen @ Cardin +7%, we have SUSA @ Steele +1%.  No other post-primary polls.  My gut says that this race is Cardin somewhere inside or outside MOE.  I will position this race @ Toss-up if the next reputable poll says Cardin +4% or less.  Cardin @ +5% to +9%, it stays where it is.  Cardin +10% or more, I will reevaluate.
Montana (R) - The only poll on this race since the primary has been Rasmussen, so that's the only trend line I've followed.  Till another polling company (M-D or SUSA) evaluates the race, I can only follow the single trendline, though I don't like to.
Ohio (R) - The polling clearly indicates Brown has a lead outside the MOE, somewhere around +4% to+7%.
Pennsylvania (R) - On the cusp of Likely, I prefer to leave it at the more competitive designation.
Rhode Island (R) (Toss-up to Lean D) - Polling out of RI is crappy, no two ways about it.  My rough guess is that Whitehouse has a lead somewhere right outside the MOE, at around +4% to +7%, but frankly I have little confidence in this, as opposed to Ohio, where polling can be trusted.  If anything, I would bet that the race is closer than this (knowing the usual facts about bad polls).

Toss-up
Missouri (R) - Definite toss-up right now.  There were some internals in the SUSA poll which lead me to believe that Talent is doing slightly better than that result indicated.  Besides, McCaskill is the type of candidate who will probably lose that election, more than Talent winning it.
Tennessee* (R) - Definite toss-up based on polling.  Ford is still fighting an uphill battle against the state's demographics, if you read the internals.  If the Republicans ever return home, it'll be curtains.  If not, Ford can definitely win.

Lean R
Virginia - Allen has a lead outside the MOE, roughly about 4% to 7% right now, see Brown/Whitehouse.
New Jersey (D) - Kean has lead in the last 6 polls, so I have to believe that the polls say he's leading right now and that the lead is right at the MOE, 4% or so.  My gut tells me that it's probably more like 2%-3%, knowing New Jersey polling, however.

Likely R
Arizona - Folks, if a poll comes out substantiating the SUSA result, I'll definitely move.  Until then, this stays where it is.

Safe R
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada - Rasmussen is saying something here totally different than everyone else.  Unless another company backs him up, I'm going to ignore it.
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Safe I/D
Vermont

Lean I/D (as opposed to lean D)
Connecticut
Prediction (as of September 17, 2006)
Democratic gains
Montana
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Rhode Island

Republican gains
None

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Congress
51 R, 47D, 2 I

[Sam Spade]

My House prediction work is finally done.  As you will have noticed, based on some polls and other news this week, a couple of races (on the GOP side) have dropped off the top 40, whereas others have entered.  Some commentary will be added, where necessary:

House
Top 40 Dem opportunities

Likely D
1. TX-22 (open)
2. AZ-08 (open)

Lean D
3. IA-01 (open)
4. IN-02 - others have the three Indiana races in different orders, not all people have them this high, but most would rate in the top 10.  I personally think they are the next likeliest three pickups after the top 3, but this is just me.
5. IN-09
6. CO-07 (open) - I originally had this in toss-up,  but I'm correcting with the new SUSA poll out today (showing Perlmutter up 17).  It could be an outlier, looking at the old SUSA and C-D results, or it might be correct and the others were wrong.  Hard to tell without more polls.
7. IN-08

Toss-Up - A long list here...
8. PA-06 - In the next three contests, we have C-D polls which showed a much better result for the D candidate than their own internals conducted at the same time.  For this reason, I am really undecided where to put these, so I'm leaving in Toss-Up.   The D candidates are strong. 
9. CT-02
10. PA-10
11. NY-24 (open)
12. NC-11
13. KY-04
14. IL-06 (open) - I would call this the closest thing to a true toss-up right now in the House (other people have agreed), so everything before this should be considered >50% of Dem takeover, and everything after should be considered <50% of Dem takeover.
15. OH-01
16. VA-02 - I have a hard time right now figuring where this race really is.
17. OH-15 - Same here.
18. WI-08 (open)
19. CT-04 - Shays is polling well and doing the right things, but the CD is just brutal.
20. PA-07 - I can't figure this race out either without more polls.
21. WA-08 - SUSA said Reichert was up 13, C-D said Burner was up 8.  The Congressman in the most comparable situation to Reichert is Drake (VA-02), as freshman congressman.  Drake's is higher because she is a lesser candidate and her opponent in Kellam is much stronger than Burner.

Lean R
22. NM-01 - Most people still have Heather in toss-up.  I don't.
23. FL-22 - Shaw polls well, but
24. CO-04
25. CT-05 - Without polling, this is the race I'm most unsure about.
26. MN-06 (open) - SUSA says Bachmann is ahead.
27. OH-18 (open) - Zach Space is an bad candidate, but will Ohio Republicans take their new nominee down.
28. PA-08
29. FL-13 (open)
30. AZ-05
31. OH-02
32. WY-AL
33. NV-02 (open) - With the two recent polls, this race makes an arrival.
34. KY-03
35. NV-03

Likely R
36. NY-20 - For some reason, the NY landslide that's occurring for the Dems is doing nothing to help their Congressional candidates.  Life is funny sometimes.
37. NY-25
38. NY-29
39. NJ-07
40. TX-23 - Democrats have had major problems here, all told.

Below this, these are the various reasons that I could see making the top 40 all told, or are races to keep an eye on, even though they are further down.  There are a couple of races that could squeeze into this list of 20, but right now, I simply don't see it.

The Dem List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. AZ-01 - Dropped from my list this week, it could get back on soon enough.
2. CA-04 - Once again, corruption issues.
3. CA-11 - Underfunded candidate against corrupt R in marginal CD.  Dems have ignored so far.
4. CO-05 (open) - Retiring incumbent in ultra-safe Rep CD refuses to endorse Rep running because of negative advertising in primary.  A rare reason to put it on the list, but it's here until polls indicate otherwise.
5. FL-08 - It's on Novak's list.
6. FL-09 (open) - Removed this week because of an SUSA poll out today shows Bilirakis up 27% (it was already low on the list anyway).  Unless this is an outlier, it might be gone for good.
7. FL-16 - Another marginal CD.
8. IA-02 - Marginal CD (to put it mildly).
9. ID-01 (open) - ultra-Rep CD, but R candidate has pissed off almost everyon in the GOP.  Amusing.
10. IL-10 - As you've probably noticed, most of these are marginal seats or open ones.  If a wave occurs, these are the next likeliest ones to fall after the big fish.
11. IL-11 - Read above.
12. KY-02 - Yawn.
13. MN-01 - Marginal district, challenger with some money.
14. NE-01 - Least Rep CD in NE, well-funded challenger.
15. NH-02 - Only here because Dem has money.  Polls have not looked good for Dems, though.
16. NY-03 - Smash's favorite CD.
17. NY-19 - Just for the Dem year in NY reason...
18. NY-26 - Same.
19. OH-12 - Marginal CD in bad year for OH Reps.
20. VA-10 - Dem here has good cash reserve.

Top 10 GOP opportunities

Toss-Up
1. IL-08

Lean Dem
2. GA-08
3. VT-AL (open)
4. WV-01
5. GA-12
6. TX-17
7. IA-03
8. OH-06 (open)
9. LA-03
10. SC-05

The GOP List of Hopes (not in any order) - A much smaller list.
1. CO-03
2. HI-02 (open)
3. KS-03
4. IL-17 (open)
5. LA-02 - Only if the Republican and Jefferson make it into the runoff.
6. NC-13
7. OH-13 (open)
8. PA-12
9. WA-02
10.  I'd like to make it an even number, but I can't really find a seat worth mentioning. 

I am toning down my prediction a couple of seats because of polling in a few races...

Prediction (as of September 24, 2006)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
NY-24 (open)
OH-01
OH-15
PA-06
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
VA-02
WI-08 (open)
WY-AL

Republican gains
IL-08

110th Congress
218D, 217R

[Sam Spade]

Sam did you see the new poll that came out on OH-18 yesterday? I think you should at least have this race rated as a tossup, as it is hard to call a race "Leans R" when the R is down by double digits IMO. Besides that I agree with basically everything.

Tried to put in a link to the poll for you, but now I can't find it anywhere! Sorry.

The only poll that I've seen for the race that is relevant is the internal Zach Space poll, saying that he was ahead 45%-31% against the newly-minted Republican nominee.  If you're talking about the I do not count the C-D poll, which polled Zach Space against a generic Republican candidate, because you know what I think of polling with generic candidates.  They are less than useless.

Also, you should know what I think about internal polls on House races without any separate Independent polls I halfway trust and you know that I don't move races based on them.  Notice I haven't moved PA-07 because of a Weldon internal poll showing him up 17 or 19, I forget which, because there hasn't been an independent poll in the race yet.

But I have more basis to work with. 

Here are the things that are working in favor of Zach Space:
- Overall attitude in Ohio against Republicans.
- Time that Zach Space has had to raise money and run ads while the Ohio GOP has to raise money. (though he is still underfunded)

Things working against Zach Space:
- That he is a third-tier candidate in the mold of other crappy candidates like Francine Busby and Randy Graf, to quote people you may know.
- An opponent who seems to understand the positions she will have to take to win and is fairly well-known within the CD already.
- Natural Republican lean of the CD.

The third-tier candidate status (which granted is my opinion, but I am rarely wrong on this) is the strongest point against him, and most likely it will be nearly impossible for him to overcome that, imo.

[Sam Spade]

You're putting far, far to much importance on your opinion that he is a third-tier candidate, IMO. Even if that is true - which is very debatable - many, many third-tier candidates or worse have been swept to victory in environments like the current one in OH-18, which is an even worse environment for republicans than Ohio overall. Plus you are overestimating the strength of Padgett in that district, and underestimating how incredibly easy it will be for Space to tie her to the Bobs. He's already up with an ad doing this, and it's quite good.

You may underestimate my opinion at your peril.  Your choice. 

[Sam Spade]

This week, I am listing the Senatorial races in order of closeness.  Of minor note, I have taken Nebraska off the table and put it in safe D.

Senate

Likely D
1. Michigan
2. Minnesota* - SUSA's showing of an 8 point lead has not been backed by anyone.  No change.
3. Washington - I believe the race is under 10 points, which should normally mean a Lean designation, but not for WA.
4. Pennsylvania (R) (from Lean D to Likely D) - A 10 point lead indicates Likely to me, especially when the person down is an incumbent.

Lean D
1. Montana (R)
2. Maryland*
3. Rhode Island (R)
4. Ohio (R) - I suspect this one is moving closer to Toss-up.  The GOP is throwing a lot of money here right now.

Toss-up
1. Missouri (R) - No polls out of here in a while.
2. Tennessee* (R) - Corker continues to underpoll among self-identified GOP voters.  That is the reason why the race is close, not because of Independent voters.

Lean R
1. New Jersey (D) - Even with the Rutgers poll showing Menendez up 1, I still see no reason to move, yet.
2. Virginia - I think the race continues to be where I thought it was before.

Likely R
1. Arizona - No one's matched the SUSA result, so I'm continuing to ignore.

Lean I/D (as opposed to lean D)
1. Connecticut
Prediction (as of October 1, 2006)
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Rhode Island
Montana

Republican gains
None

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Congress
51 R, 47D, 2 I

[Sam Spade]

Thanks Sam Spade. Btw, the latest SUSA poll for WA-08 shows Reichert up 2.

Thanks for the note, though I did notice it earlier.  The SUSA poll showing him up 13 was an earlier result (taken about 2 months ago) before this week's poll.

I haven't finished completing my changes to the House rankings this week.  Safe to say that a couple of certain races are going on the list and a couple will be taken off.

[Sam Spade]

Why are listing NJ as Leans GOP but not a gain?  Was that a typo?

Just because I see something as being Lean R per the polls does not mean that by November 7 I think will be a gain.

[Sam Spade]

I haven't finished completing my changes to the House rankings this week.  Safe to say that a couple of certain races are going on the list

Hmmm, I wonder which they will be

Well, I can answer that question right now:  FL-16, NY-26

I'm taking off TX-23 definitely, but I haven't decided on the other.  Probably one of the other NY contests.