Steele beating Cardin in Maryland? What makes you think that? I haven't seen a single poll showing Steele leading, and only SUSA puts him within the MoE (I think).
Oh, I assumed all of his "Lean D" predictions would have the Democrat winning. Silly me.
There have to be surprises. And on election night there always are. In terms of the "actual numbers", Toss-up (Lean D) is the best call for all those races, except MO.
So, numerically, Maryland is a lean D, but your gut feeling makes you think that Steele will eek out a thin victory?
Personally, I honestly can't see Steele winning, not in Maryland and not in 2006. From what I've heard, he's run a great campaign and is a strong contender, but I don't think that's enough. I say Cardin wins by five. Ehrlich on the other hand is in a much better position than Steele is; if Steele wins, Ehrlich most definitely will.
