Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[NHPolitico]

I've decided to expand the Dem list to sixty seats, to show what's going on in the back of my head, and just add a few on at the end to watch, which should all be considered Likely R..

House
Top Dem opportunities

Likely D
1. AZ-08 (open)
2. PA-10

Lean D
3. IN-08
4. TX-22 (open) - the poll today perked my interest, but it's still Dem's advantage.
5. CO-07 (open)
6. NY-24 (open)
7. PA-07
8. OH-15
9. IN-02
10. IA-01 (open) - Both parties are spending tons of money here.  We haven't seen a poll here in ages, so it's hard for me to really say anything, except to place it lower the CO-07 and NY-24.
11. FL-16 (open) - The ballot box ruling helps the GOP.  I don't know by how much though.

Toss-Up
12. PA-06 - There is so much money being spent by the national parties in the next six seats that toss-up is really the only call.
13. NC-11
14. NM-01
15. IN-09
16. CT-04
17. OH-18 (open)
18. FL-13 (open) - My gut tells me Buchanan's down, but he can self-fund.
19. OH-01
20. CT-02
21. WI-08 (open) - This is the one race I can't figure right now.
22. IL-06 (open)
23. CT-05 - Poll today shows Murphy up 4.  I have to think that CT-05 only falls if CT-02 and CT-04 do, but maybe all three do.  My only bit of opposite guidance is that the word on the street private polling of both campaigns puts Johnson up by about 3.
24. VA-02
25. WA-08
26. NY-26 - I can't figure this one out either.
27. NY-29 - An example of a race that has seriously moved up the list.
28. MN-06 (open) - An example of a race that has fallen down the list.  Possibly could be in Lean R.

Lean R
29. KY-04 - Lucas is just not campaigning actively.  It shows.
30. KY-03 - The quintessential (as Charlie Cook correctly puts it) bellweather race.  Neither party has been advertising here at all, yet this is the race to watch for a national wave, imho.
31. PA-08
32. FL-22 - To echo another refrain:  There has been so much money spent here.
33. NY-20
34. AZ-05
35. MN-01
36. NY-25
37. NH-02 - Another race where I really don't know where to put. 
38. ID-01 (open)
39. CA-11 - Even if no wave occurs, this could well be a surprise.
40. AZ-01
41. NV-03
42. WY-AL - If a wave occurs, expect this seat to be the benchmark.  The wave would pick up a couple of seats below and leave a couple of seats above hanging, but overall 40-45 would be the correct number.
43. OH-02
44. CO-04
45. NV-02 (open)
46. PA-04
47. OH-12
48. CO-05 (open)
49. NY-19
50. IA-02
51. NY-03
52. VA-10
53. NC-08
54. IL-10
55. NJ-07

Likely R
56. NE-03 (open)
57. TX-23
58. KY-02
59. CA-04
60. KS-02

Additional House Races to Examine (not in any order)
1. CA-50
2. FL-08
3. FL-09 (open)
4. IL-11
5. IN-03
6. MI-08
7. MN-02
8. NE-01
9. OH-14
10. WV-02

Top GOP opportunities

Lean Dem
1. IL-08
2. GA-12
3. GA-08
4. IA-03
5. VT-AL (open)
6. OR-05
7. IN-07
8. LA-03
9. WV-01

The GOP List of Hopes (not in any order)
1. CO-03
2. IL-17 (open)
3. LA-02
4. NC-13
5. TX-17
6. SC-05

Prediction (as of October 30, 2006)
Democratic gains
AZ-08 (open)
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
CT-04
FL-13 (open)
FL-16 (open)
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
NC-11
NM-01
NY-24 (open)
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
WI-08 (open)

Republican gains
None

110th House
224D, 211R

If there's a wave folks, expect the number of seats lost to double, roughly.

I'm taking next Wednesday off so I can stay up late Tuesday night and watch the aftermath unfold on MSNBC, Fox, etc. on TV on Wednesday. I'll use your cheatsheet to follow along. Thanks for all your hard work. I know I speak for everyone in saying we appreciate your organization of this.

[NHPolitico]

Another possible explanation is that Ford, Tester and Kean were all over-rated and benefited from something like a media bubble, which has either burst or seems likely to.

The thing I couldn't understand about Montana is that they are practically a forgotten state like North Dakota or something and Burns is not only on the  Appropriations Committee, but he's the chair of a subcommittee there and he has made use of that position of influence by bringing a lot of money to the state. Similar to CT considering the idea of throwing out Lieberman for a bottom of the totem pole guy like Lamont.  Lieberman and Burns have both made an issue of the money they have brought back to their small influence states. I understand why he's vulnerable, like with Lieberman, but small state voters have to look at the big picture, too, and Lieberman and Burns are far more useful to them in power than they are out of power.

[NHPolitico]

So you supported Tom Daschle?

And the Hon. Robert Byrd too apparently

It looks like thefactor deleted his post. Anyway, I didn't say that I supported Burns, even. I was just saying that I am surprised when small states boot out incumbent senators who are powerful. Daschle's hold on power was tenuous even if he'd have beaten Thune.  The Dems were losing  patience with his attempts at seizing control of the Senate.  Now, Byrd is a much better analogy. And, it supports what I'm saying. WV gets it. They understand that booting out Byrd should be done only after some serious thought because the stakes are quite high if the payoff of replacing him are not at all close to keeping him.

[NHPolitico]

Your RI call is in line with what a lot of people are saying right now, which is that Chafee has surged in the last few days. Odd, but I think it's more than just a M-D poll behind the talk. Then again, I'm not sure this should be that surprising... Lieberman is more hawkish than Chafee and he's rolling in CT.

In addition to the poll tightening there, I keep recalling his near-upset primary win just a few months ago-- all due to the effectiveness of the GOTV effort. Chafee seems to know who every one of his supporters are. If he can bring out to vote and get a reasonable level of indy support, he should win.