Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[WMS]

Democrats will pickup NM-01 and KY-04. I have Madrid winning because oif Wilson’s dogmatic support of an unpopular war.

NM-01:  The main reason right now why I think Wilson will survive is because she is a "survivor" from a number of tough races in the past, and, absent a national "wave", which I don't see right now, these attributes come more into play.  Secondly, Madrid is getting hammered at home and by Wilson for the scandal problems within the Richardson admin. and really hasn't done a good job of defending herself there.  Still, it's quite fair to predict she'll lose. 

I'm with Sam Spade on NM-1, and yes, I saw the not-nearly-enough-details-released local poll on it (F***, where are the Independent numbers?!).   Here is a point to consider. No, Wilson is not running away with this race. But she has never been behind in a poll yet.

[WMS]

Ugh, you flipped NM-01. Why couldn't this have happened with Richard Romero, a Democrat I actually liked? Instead I get a representative of the Democratic faction I'm most opposed to. Blah.

[WMS]

1. It's based on the polls and other stuff I've been reading as well.  But if Madrid wins in 2006, my best advice is to run Heather Wilson again in 2008.  And that'll probably happen.

Yes, NM-01 is the one exception to the usual ineptitude the local Reps display in elections here. And I agree - Madrid is simply not the type of Democrat who can easily hold NM-01. Too leftist.

[WMS]

After watching the NM-01 ads, I don't think I've seen this much mud-slinging before in a congressional race, and from both sides. Both Wilson and Madrid are running two of the most pointedly negative campaings I've ever seen.

Yes, and the fact that I'll...well, probably not wake up, I don't see this getting called until well into the next...have one of these two as Congresswoman after such a campaign is not exactly cheery.

And if Madrid wins, expect an equally nasty and close rematch in 2008, since Madrid...just isn't the type of candidate who could make this seat safe for the Dems...this could also happen in 2008 if Wilson wins.

I'm glad I don't watch television at the moment...

[WMS]

Where is the prediction for Illinois State House District 95?

[WMS]

I would also add that I think neither major candidate in the Virginia Senate race is fit for the position of city dog-catcher and that I generally do not look favorably on crooks.

You're a good man.

So you'll be rooting for the Republicans in New Mexico then?