Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

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This seems to be the lay down on the competitive Senate races

Lean Democrat: MT, MD, RI
Tossup leaning Democrat: MO, VA
Likely Republican: TN, AZ

All others are safe.

As a note, if a Cat 5 wave occurs, expect it to hit around MN-01 or so.

What category would you call your prediction? I'd call 5-6 Senate seats and 24 House seats a success.

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Steele beating Cardin in Maryland? What makes you think that? I haven't seen a single poll showing Steele leading, and only SUSA puts him within the MoE (I think).

Oh, I assumed all of his "Lean D" predictions would have the Democrat winning. Silly me.

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Steele beating Cardin in Maryland? What makes you think that? I haven't seen a single poll showing Steele leading, and only SUSA puts him within the MoE (I think).

Oh, I assumed all of his "Lean D" predictions would have the Democrat winning. Silly me.

There have to be surprises.  And on election night there always are.  In terms of the "actual numbers", Toss-up (Lean D) is the best call for all those races, except MO.

Why? Do you think Steele's dirty tricks claiming that he got the endorsements of Mfume, Curry, and Johnson will win it for Steele? It would be nice if Republicans weren't all a bunch of inhuman liars.

http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/3/MD_Dirty_tricks.jpg
http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/3/MD_Dirty_tricks2.jpg