Sam Spade's Final (see p.5) Gubernatorial prediction thread...

[Sam Spade]

FINAL PREDICTIONS - GOVERNOR

Safe D
Arizona Napolitano (D) 60, Munsil (R) 38, Other 2
Arkansas (R)* Beebe (D) 56, Hutchinson (R) 43, Other 1
Colorado (R)* Ritter (D) 57, Beauprez (R) 40, Other 3
Kansas Sebelius (D) 56, Barnett (R) 42, Other 2
Massachusetts (R)* Patrick (D) 54, Healey (R) 35, Mihos (I) 10, Other 1
New Hampshire Lynch (D) 72, Coburn (R) 26, Other 2
New Mexico Richardson (D) 64, Dendahl (R) 34, Other 2
New York (R)* Spitzer (D) 73, Faso (R) 25, Other 2
Ohio (R)* Strickland (D) 60, Blackwell (R) 39, Other 1
Oklahoma Henry (D) 64, Istook (R) 34, Other 2
Pennsylvania Rendell (D) 60, Swann (R) 39, Other 1
Tennessee Bredesen(D) 66, Bryson (R) 33, Other 1
Wyoming Freundethal (D) 63, Hunkins (R) 34, Other 3

Likely D
None

Lean D
Michigan Granholm (D) 53, DeVos (R) 46, Other 1
Oregon Kulongoski (D) 52, Saxton (R) 45, Other 3
Wisconsin Doyle (D) 52, Green (R) 46, Other 2
Maine Baldacci (D) 38, Woodcock (R) 33, Merrill (I) 20, LaMarche (G) 10, Other 1
Illinois Blagojevich (D) 46, Topinka (R) 41, Whitney (G) 11, Other 2
Iowa* Culver (D) 52, Nussle (R) 47, Other 1

Toss-up (Lean D)
Minnesota (R) Pawlenty (R) 46.8, Hatch (D) 46.3, Hutchinson (I) 5.6, Other 1.3

Toss-up (Pure)
Maryland (R) Ehrlich (R) 49.6, O’Malley (D) 49.2, Other 1.2

Toss-up (Lean R)
Nevada (R)* Gibbons (R) 49.8, Titus (D) 47.4, Other 2.8
Idaho (R)* Brady (D) 48.8, Otter (R) 47.7, Other 3.5

Lean R
Alaska* Palin (R) 49, Knowles (D) 45, Other 6
Florida* Crist (R) 53, Davis (D) 46, Other 1
Rhode Island Carcieri (R) 53, Fogarty (D) 45, Other 2

Likely R
Vermont Douglas (R) 52, Parker (D) 44, Other 4

Safe R
Alabama Riley (R) 57, Baxley (D) 42, Other 1
California Schwarzenegger (R) 54, Angelides (D) 42, Other 4
Connecticut Rell (R) 60, DiStefano (D) 38, Other 2
Georgia Perdue (R) 55, Taylor (D) 38, Hayes (L) 5, Other 2
Hawaii Lingle (R) 62, Iwase (D) 36, Other 2
Nebraska Heineman (R) 72, Hahn (D) 26, Other 2
South Carolina Sanford (R) 57, Moore (D) 42, Other 1
South Dakota Rounds (R) 59, Billion (D) 39, Other 2
Texas Perry (R) 39, Bell (D) 25, Strayhorn (I) 21, Friedman (I) 13, Other 2
2006 Governorships
+6 Dems 28D-22R

[TomC]

I disagree about Michigan, but otherwise, I agree.

[Sam Spade]

I disagree about Michigan, but otherwise, I agree.

This is a fair disagreement.    Just so long as it's not about PA.

[Rob]

Good choices, as ever.

I also disagree on Michigan, though.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, if you want me to change my prediction from Michigan to Maine, I'd be happy to, since I too would love to see a man named Woodcock (R) in the Governor's Mansion somewhere. 

[Keystone Phil]

Switch Rhode Island and Alaska.

[Gustaf]

Sam, I actually think Republicans stand a better chance of picking up Maine than Michigan. Good and interesting predictions, as usual. But you've labeled Iowa as (R).

[Moooooo]

Whats your theory behind Maryalnd?  Are you going strictly by polling?

[Sam Spade]

Switch Rhode Island and Alaska.

No.  Why?

[Sam Spade]

Whats your theory behind Maryalnd?  Are you going strictly by polling?

The call of Lean D right now is strictly polling.  Though I do think in the end O'Malley will pull this one out w/ 51% or 52%, which of course is what my prediction is based on.

[Joe Biden 2020]

You can put Oklahoma Safe Democrat.  Ernest Istook is falling farther and farther behind in the polls.  You could put Oklahoma's Lt Governor's Race as Lean Democrat as Jari Askins (D) is polling just ahead of Todd Hiett (R).  That would be a Democrat pickup.  Though, it could just as easily stay Republican.

[Keystone Phil]

Switch Rhode Island and Alaska.

No.  Why?

Alaska has a much stronger Dem challenger than Rhode Island. Murkowski might be gone but Knowles is still a popular guy. I think Fogarty is peaking too soon in Rhode Island.

[WalterMitty]

obviously sam spade's massachusetts prediction is incorrect.

[minionofmidas]

Switch Rhode Island and Alaska.

No.  Why?

Alaska has a much stronger Dem challenger than Rhode Island. Murkowski might be gone but Knowles is still a popular guy. I think Fogarty is peaking too soon in Rhode Island.

Don't know about Rhode Island, but lean Rep for Alaska is right.

[Keystone Phil]

Switch Rhode Island and Alaska.

No.  Why?

Alaska has a much stronger Dem challenger than Rhode Island. Murkowski might be gone but Knowles is still a popular guy. I think Fogarty is peaking too soon in Rhode Island.

Don't know about Rhode Island, but lean Rep for Alaska is right.

Hey, if you insist... I hope you are right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone thinks that Fogarty got it wrapped up. But no other pollster besides rasmussen got Fogarty up. I don't know about that race if someone else don't have Fogarty up.

[Flying Dog]

I would really like people help to get elected in the AF Primaries. Go there and donate please!

[Sam Spade]

I third the Michigan prediction.  Many of you may know that my bias against DeVos is, well, larger than life, but the man will not likely survive bad business and far right skeletons in his closet.

It has just come out that he and his wife financially support that group (I don't remember the name) that is boycotting Ford because it catters advertisements to the gay community.  Not too good to be promoting lower sales for a company that employs thousands of Michigan residents.  Especially when you call yourself a job creator.

Opening up an Amway plant in China is not good politcally either.  I don't care under what pretence it is under for good business in a global economy.  Here is a website for a little fun.

www.michigandems.com/seedickrun.html

Put Michigan in at least the lean Dem column

I don't change my predictions to suit poster's political opinions of one candidate or another.

[Sam Spade]

I have made my changes to this thread per what information has come across the board and the various Governor's races this week.

Overall, there isn't much to change other than putting Alaska in Likely R, with two polls coming out this week showing Palin leading by 15% or so.

I have made no changes to my final predictions.

[Deano963]

obviously sam spade's massachusetts prediction is incorrect.

A prediction, by definition, cannot be judged to be correct or incorrect until the event in question has passed.

But, while we're on the subject, the last poll I saw had Gabrielli leading Healey by 30 points. If he wins the Dem primary, the race is almost over as he can match Healey dollar-for-dollar. If it's Reilly or Patrick, the race becoms closer.

[Sam Spade]

obviously sam spade's massachusetts prediction is incorrect.

A prediction, by definition, cannot be judged to be correct or incorrect until the event in question has passed.

But, while we're on the subject, the last poll I saw had Gabrielli leading Healey by 30 points. If he wins the Dem primary, the race is almost over as he can match Healey dollar-for-dollar. If it's Reilly or Patrick, the race becoms closer.

I will reevaulate my predictions on the races with primaries yet to be finished when the primaries are completed and enough new polls arise so that one could make a fair judgment on the race.

[MarkWarner08]

I agree with your predictions except on Nevada and Michigan. I think Granholm and Titus will win. Democrats pick up 8 Governorships -- Romney, the head of the RGA will be embarrassed by the success of Bill Richardson's DGA.

[Flying Dog]

change michigan, everything else is fine.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Everyone thinks that Fogarty got it wrapped up. But no other pollster besides rasmussen got Fogarty up. I don't know about that race if someone else don't have Fogarty up.

Obviously I'm not included in everyone, and I've never heard anyone say he has sown this race up

[MarkWarner08]

Everyone thinks that Fogarty got it wrapped up. But no other pollster besides rasmussen got Fogarty up. I don't know about that race if someone else don't have Fogarty up.

Obviously I'm not included in everyone, and I've never heard anyone say he has sown this race up

RI is a true toss-up. If Whitehouse wins, Fogarty wins. If Chafee wins, Carcieri wins too. I remember how Democrats  swept the close races for Governor and President in NH in 2004.