Florida Primary - Official Thread

[Sam Spade]

This is your place to discuss the Florida primary, results are being released right now...  A good source I've found is the Miami Herald.  The SOS's website appears to be down.  If anyone can find any other good sources, please post, along with opinions..

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2006/by_state/FL_Page_0905.html?SITE=FLMIHELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[Deano963]

Awesome. It looks like the republicans are stuck with Cruella de Harris.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060906/ap_on_el_ge/florida_elections

[jacob_101]

The SOS site doesn't say how many precincts are reporting....the miami herald site is better.

I really thought McBride might make this race interesting, but looks like Republicans will hand the seat to Nelson.

[Democratic Hawk]

Does the fact that, of precincts reported thus far, 337,653 votes have been case in the GOP primary compared with 254,267 in the Democratic primary - with Crist having c.63% and Davis just under 50% bode badly for Davis - assuming his lead holds - come November?

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Smith is steadily closing on Davis.  I have no clue where the results are coming from, though, right now.

In other interesting news, State Rep. Nancy Detert appears to be beating self-funded car salesman Vern Buchanan (IRS and bankruptcy problems) and Tramm Hudson (of blacks can't swim fame) for FL-13.  I might have to reexamine the seat if this lead holds, since the other two were the frontrunners and extremely well-funded.  She has not been as well-funded, but lacks the problems that the other two had.

[Democratic Hawk]

Smith is steadily closing on Davis.  I have no clue where the results are coming from, though, right now.

Within 6-points last time I looked. I gather, in the GOP, race its moderate (Crist) vs conservative (Gallagher) but not sure about Davis vs Smith

Dave

[TheresNoMoney]

Within 6-points last time I looked. I gather, in the GOP, race its moderate (Crist) vs conservative (Gallagher) but not sure about Davis vs Smith

I don't know why everyone has to put ideological labels on everyone.

[Alcon]

Within 6-points last time I looked. I gather, in the GOP, race its moderate (Crist) vs conservative (Gallagher) but not sure about Davis vs Smith

I don't know why everyone has to put ideological labels on everyone.

Huh?  What's your issue with identifying one person as more conservative than another?

[Rob]

Looks like Katherine is in.

The GOP really blew it here- this should have been a prime pickup opportunity.

[Sam Spade]

Within 6-points last time I looked. I gather, in the GOP, race its moderate (Crist) vs conservative (Gallagher) but not sure about Davis vs Smith

I don't know why everyone has to put ideological labels on everyone.

Coming from you, that's quite rich, actually.

[TheresNoMoney]

Huh?  What's your issue with identifying one person as more conservative than another?

Because in most cases it's so arbitrary.

[Alcon]

Huh?  What's your issue with identifying one person as more conservative than another?

Because in most cases it's so arbitrary.

Arbitrary, or subjective?  Nothing wrong with the latter.

[Democratic Hawk]

Within 6-points last time I looked. I gather, in the GOP, race its moderate (Crist) vs conservative (Gallagher) but not sure about Davis vs Smith

I don't know why everyone has to put ideological labels on everyone.

I've only made an observation on the GOP race and wondered if the Democratic race was similarly split, that's all

Dave

[TheresNoMoney]

Arbitrary, or subjective?  Nothing wrong with the latter.

I just find it incredibly simple-minded and wrongheaded in most circumstances.

For example, if a Democrat is an Iraq War supporter then he is a "moderate" (despite the majority of the country being against the war) or if a Democrat is pro-life he is also a "moderate" (despite the majority of the country being pro-choice).

It's annoying that people only focus on 2-3 hotbutton issues (abortion, Iraq war, guns) when they put an ideological label on politicians.

[Sam Spade]

Davis' margin is now at 5%, with about 48% reporting.

Dehert's margin is down under 4% now, with about the same number of precincts reporting.

[TheresNoMoney]

I'm not suprised at all that the Democratic primary is this close.

[Democratic Hawk]

It's annoying that people only focus on 2-3 hotbutton issues (abortion, Iraq war, guns) when they put an ideological label on politicians.

Using those yardsticks, I'd be a "moderate" then . Thing is in the UK, abortion and guns carry little to no saliency. Of course, I'd gladly favor restricted access to abortion

Dave

[TheresNoMoney]

Using those yardsticks, I'd be a "moderate" then . Thing is in the UK, abortion and guns carry little to no saliency

Too bad it's not like that here.

People in the US like to use their brains as little as possible when it comes to politics, so abortion, the war, and guns are about the only issues they can handle.

[Sam Spade]

Buchanan (IRS fame) has turned it around and has won the primary by about 8% over Dehert with 93% of the precincts reporting.

I don't know where the rest of the precincts are from, but I'm about ready to call the Dem governor primary.

[Democratic Hawk]

Why does turnout tend to be, generally, higher in counties with a lower population than those with a higher one? Is it a normal pattern?

According to figures on the Secretary of States website, turnout in Broward was a paltry 11.7% and 15.9% in Miami-Dade

Dave

[jimrtex]

Why does turnout tend to be, generally, higher in counties with a lower population than those with a higher one? Is it a normal pattern?

According to figures on the Secretary of States website, turnout in Broward was a paltry 11.7% and 15.9% in Miami-Dade

A number of reasons.  Registration numbers tend to be over-inflated.  It is difficult to remove someone from the voting rolls, and it is only just recently that a larger effort has been made to track people who move between counties, let alone States.  If you register in a new county, your old county might not know that you have left.

Urban areas tend to have more people in transition.  Perhaps moving to a city in one state, and then a city in another state, or register to vote where one is attending college.  Many such persons may register to vote when they register their car - they are handed a form, and it easier to fill it out, than to admit that you absolutely don't care about politics.  If the person moves, they may forget that they are registered elsewhere, and so do not inform the new registrar. 

Other persons may get caught up in voter registration drives.  The parties aren't going to worry too much about getting registration up before the primaries.  And they may only concentrate on presidential elections when there is a chance of getting the new voters to the polls.

A larger share of voters in urban areas are young (in their 20s), are single, have fewer children and are non-homeowners.  Such persons tend to have a weaker attachment to politics or government.

In more rural areas, people are more likely to see voting as something people do as being part of the community.  Elected officials probably really are their neighbors, someone they would recognize at the grocery store or when they attend the football game at the high school.

Voters can only vote* in their party's primary.  In Florida, about 40% of the voters are Republican and Democrat, and about 20% are non-affiliated.  But this varies.  Broward County is extremely Democratic, with almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans.

There was no contest for the Democrat senate nomination, so it wasn't even on the ballot.   Whether there was a primary for a state senate or state representative depended on the district.  It looks like maybe 40 representative contests (120x2 possible).  If there is an incumbent, a primary is unlikely.  If a district is lopsided Republican or Democrat, the minority party may not challenge.  Or if they do, there won't be a primary to choose the candidate.

The Republican gubernatorial primary had higher turnout (979K vs. 855K), even though Democratic registration is slightly higher.  So a heavily Democratic county like Broward is going to tend to have a lower overall turnout.

In Florida, if the the primary will decide who is elected (the other party won't have anyone on the ballot), all voters can participate in the election for that office.  But there might not be a contest for the nomination, and other voters might not be aware that they can vote in the contest -- and they might not find the candidates attractive anyhow.

In much of the South, the Democratic primary used to decide who was elected.  Turnout was often significantly higher for the primary than the general election.  South Florida is not part of the South, but the northern part of the State including the panhandle is.  Voting in the Democratic primary is still the equivalent of voting, even if the voters will vote for Republicans for President or Governor.  Nelson will roll over Harris in these areas, and the primaries will still decide who win legislative seats or who local elections.

[Democratic Hawk]

Why does turnout tend to be, generally, higher in counties with a lower population than those with a higher one? Is it a normal pattern?

According to figures on the Secretary of States website, turnout in Broward was a paltry 11.7% and 15.9% in Miami-Dade

A number of reasons.  Registration numbers tend to be over-inflated.  It is difficult to remove someone from the voting rolls, and it is only just recently that a larger effort has been made to track people who move between counties, let alone States.  If you register in a new county, your old county might not know that you have left.

Urban areas tend to have more people in transition.  Perhaps moving to a city in one state, and then a city in another state, or register to vote where one is attending college.  Many such persons may register to vote when they register their car - they are handed a form, and it easier to fill it out, than to admit that you absolutely don't care about politics.  If the person moves, they may forget that they are registered elsewhere, and so do not inform the new registrar. 

Other persons may get caught up in voter registration drives.  The parties aren't going to worry too much about getting registration up before the primaries.  And they may only concentrate on presidential elections when there is a chance of getting the new voters to the polls.

A larger share of voters in urban areas are young (in their 20s), are single, have fewer children and are non-homeowners.  Such persons tend to have a weaker attachment to politics or government.

In more rural areas, people are more likely to see voting as something people do as being part of the community.  Elected officials probably really are their neighbors, someone they would recognize at the grocery store or when they attend the football game at the high school.

Voters can only vote* in their party's primary.  In Florida, about 40% of the voters are Republican and Democrat, and about 20% are non-affiliated.  But this varies.  Broward County is extremely Democratic, with almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans.

There was no contest for the Democrat senate nomination, so it wasn't even on the ballot.   Whether there was a primary for a state senate or state representative depended on the district.  It looks like maybe 40 representative contests (120x2 possible).  If there is an incumbent, a primary is unlikely.  If a district is lopsided Republican or Democrat, the minority party may not challenge.  Or if they do, there won't be a primary to choose the candidate.

The Republican gubernatorial primary had higher turnout (979K vs. 855K), even though Democratic registration is slightly higher.  So a heavily Democratic county like Broward is going to tend to have a lower overall turnout.

In Florida, if the the primary will decide who is elected (the other party won't have anyone on the ballot), all voters can participate in the election for that office.  But there might not be a contest for the nomination, and other voters might not be aware that they can vote in the contest -- and they might not find the candidates attractive anyhow.

In much of the South, the Democratic primary used to decide who was elected.  Turnout was often significantly higher for the primary than the general election.  South Florida is not part of the South, but the northern part of the State including the panhandle is.  Voting in the Democratic primary is still the equivalent of voting, even if the voters will vote for Republicans for President or Governor.  Nelson will roll over Harris in these areas, and the primaries will still decide who win legislative seats or who local elections.

Thanks

Dave

[??????????]

Glad the Democrats didn't pick the Sugar industry with Rod Smith.