Rasmussen: Cantwell(D) above 50% against McGavick(R)

[OC]

Sorry meant Patty Murray.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

He risks becoming everybody's clueless dad.

Which in most states beats becoming everybody's cold, distant mom.

P.S.  Patty Murphy !?!

Cantwell, cold?  No.  She's the soccer mom that will cut off the crusts, if you want, and stocks both chunky and creamy peanut butter.  True, she'll also be deciding what SUV we're buying, honey, thank you very much, but she's still not what I'd call "cold."

I could understand calling Patty Murray cold -- but I know her personally, and she's really more reserved, which comes off as cold -- but Cantwell isn't especially cold.  Gregoire/Rossi was a contest between a non-incumbent who came off as cold and a genteel businessman (I wouldn't say everyone's clueless dad -- more everyone's career-driven uncle who doesn't like kids).  Look how that turned out.

Here's the deal.  Dino Rossi was a great mix of personableness and savvy, even if he could have stood to appear a bit more human every once and a while.  Gregoire pretty much seemed as "cold" as you can get.  And look what happened there.  Personality isn't everything, sure; Gregoire won in part because she had a good record as Attorney General.  The candidate who tried to replace her, Deborah Senn, lost to Rob McKenna, who is Bill Gates with different eyeglasses but no personality transplant, because the GOP successfully attacked her on the issues.  And that's the crux of the issue: McGavick can't risk having a personality gap against Cantwell, because he's already working against a political issues gap and an experience gap.  That leaves him with very little.

Here's the reality.  In Washington, folsky gets one only so far.  This is true of every state, sure, but we have a unique situation.  We have seen that Democrat vs.  Republican, with the Democrat unpersonable and the Republican relatively personable, with both appearing competent, it's pretty much a tie.  That means that, faced with a competent candidate (and Cantwell is competent), McGavick needs better than je ne sais quoi, and he's fighting against falling behind there, too.  What options does that lead McGavick with?  Literally, je ne sais quoi.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

The Zogby polls were conducted on Aug 28. And it had Cantwell up by 7 or 8 pts. No, this isn't a Zogby poll but I put stock in the Zogby polls better than Rasmussen who has been all over the map all year long with its irregular polling.

Zogby is terrible. Rasmussen is pretty good. Just look at the polling during the 2004 elections.

[OC]

You keep saying that and he blew the 2000 election. He nailed the Patty Murray race if I recall and he predicted the Kerry victory in 2004, so I believe his poll on Washington. Also Eraserhead this poll was taken before the news story broke before yesterday.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

You keep saying that and he blew the 2000 election. He nailed the Patty Murray race if I recall and he predicted the Kerry victory in 2004, so I believe his poll on Washington. Also Eraserhead this poll was taken before the news story broke before yesterday.

Everyone predicted a Kerry victory in 2004 in Washington.  Washington is an easy state to poll federally, and not so easy on the state level (Mason-Dixon did poorly in 2004).

[OC]

But the Patty Murray was called by Zogby as well.  I think that Cantwell is up between 6-9 pts. This race is going to go down to the wire.  And the DUI charge and the scandle by Cantwell might cancel each other out and we will have a very close race at the end worth watching.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

But the Patty Murray was called by Zogby as well.  I think that Cantwell is up between 6-9 pts. This race is going to go down to the wire.  And the DUI charge and the scandle by Cantwell might cancel each other out and we will have a very close race at the end worth watching.

Do you even know what the scandal is?  Seriously, dude, you're uneducated on this stuff.

[OC]

I am not uneducated I just said that this race will come down to the wire all scandles aside. Scandles don't have much impact unless it is a big scandles both were minor and it will be a close race.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I am not uneducated I just said that this race will come down to the wire all scandles aside. Scandles don't have much impact unless it is a big scandles both were minor and it will be a close race.

Why do you think Cantwell will lose support?

[OC]

Because she is very pro-war and WA the war isn't that popular. In WA Bush approvals are negative. That's why I think it will be very close at the end. Also, there are independents on the ticket, and just like Ralph Nader syphened votes away from Kerry and Gore, they are going to take away some support from her, and it will end up being a close race.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Because she is very pro-war and WA the war isn't that popular. In WA Bush approvals are negative. That's why I think it will be very close at the end. Also, there are independents on the ticket, and just like Ralph Nader syphened votes away from Kerry and Gore, they are going to take away some support from her, and it will end up being a close race.

Why do you think that will change by November?  It's already a well-known fact that Cantwell is pro-war.

Dixon isn't going to do super-well.  Not enough to make a difference of more than a few points, I don't think.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Because she is very pro-war and WA the war isn't that popular. In WA Bush approvals are negative. That's why I think it will be very close at the end. Also, there are independents on the ticket, and just like Ralph Nader syphened votes away from Kerry and Gore, they are going to take away some support from her, and it will end up being a close race.

Whats the alternative though? McGavick is even more pro war. Now if McGavick was anti-war we would have a really interesting campaign on our hands.

[OC]

There is about 15% undecided and eventhough they know Cantwell's position on the war they have yet to decide if she is fit for office. Those undecides will decide the outcome of the race one way or the other. So, far they haven't broke for either camp. They know who positions, but they haven't made up their minds yet.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

There is about 15% undecided and eventhough they know Cantwell's position on the war they have yet to decide if she is fit for office. Those undecides will decide the outcome of the race one way or the other. So, far they haven't broke for either camp. They know who positions, but they haven't made up their minds yet.

Dude, I know what undecideds are.  They generally aren't ultra-liberal.

[OC]

But the undecides will decide the outcome of the election and might give McGavick a chance who has a great story though, that's why it will get close at the end and race will be undecided until the ads and debates. No, the independents are not very liberal, but they might want someone who is a true independent like McGavick and not someone who votes along party lines, Democratic.  I am not saying that McGavick will win this but he  can make it dangerously close just like Webb is doing in VA.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

But the undecides will decide the outcome of the election and might give McGavick a chance who has a great story though, that's why it will get close at the end and race will be undecided until the ads and debates. No, the independents are not very liberal, but they might want someone who is a true independent like McGavick and not someone who votes along party lines, Democratic.  I am not saying that McGavick will win this but he  can make it dangerously close just like Webb is doing in VA.

Oh, please.  Every Washington Republican is an "independent."  McGavick is a social and economic conservative who will vote pretty near party line.  He worked for Slade Gorton!

[OC]

I am saying that they may want people who moves Bush bills forward in the senate not stalling them. I am not saying that he will win, but he got a great life story and he can will.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I am saying that they may want people who moves Bush bills forward in the senate not stalling them. I am not saying that he will win, but he got a great life story and he can will.

Why would Washington want someone who supports Bush legislation when he is so unpopular?

[OC]

Why did the country vote for Bush in 2004 and he was unpopular as well? I agree with you that Washington isn't like the rest of the south but having an incumbant in the WH does give advantages to the party that is challenging the outparty. I was refering to the spending bills on defense spending not social spending bills like tax cuts. The country wants continued support of defense build up and Cantwell might not fit that bill. She hasn't vote  for all of Bush defense authorization bills.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Why did the country vote for Bush in 2004 and he was unpopular as well? I agree with you that Washington isn't like the rest of the south but having an incumbant in the WH does give advantages to the party that is challenging the outparty. I was refering to the spending bills on defense spending not social spending bills like tax cuts. The country wants continued support of defense build up and Cantwell might not fit that bill. She hasn't vote  for all of Bush defense authorization bills.

You have no idea what you are talking about.  Ever.

Bush had positive approvals in November 2004; Kerry had negative approvals.

Whatever "defence build-up" means.

EDIT: Washington, in the South?   What?!?  Are you actually even from the U.S.?  Please tell me that you aren't confusing the District of Columbia with Washington state.

[OC]

I was talking about the defense bills that Cantwell cut. She didn't vote for all of them and the people want the defense bills passed all of them and McGavick will vote for them. As for Bush approvals, he was at 40% all summer long he was only at 50% only on election day. Again, I didn't say that Cantwell won't win, it will be close. And I do know what I am talking about.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I was talking about the defense bills that Cantwell cut. She didn't vote for all of them and the people want the defense bills passed all of them and McGavick will vote for them. As for Bush approvals, he was at 40% all summer long he was only at 50% only on election day. Again, I didn't say that Cantwell won't win, it will be close. And I do know what I am talking about.

The approvals during the summer don't matter.  People don't vote based on summer approval!

And please tell me that you know the difference between Washington state and Washington, D.C., because Washington isn't a part of the "South."  What the hell?

[OC]

Again, Cantwell didn't vote for all the spending bills over the long hall and people want someone who funds the war on terror. And the approval ratings was at 40% until election day. If Kerry had so low approvals why did he win close to winning the election.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Again, Cantwell didn't vote for all the spending bills over the long hall and people want someone who funds the war on terror.

Prove that people won't vote for someone based on this.  Give any evidence.

By the way, you need to be honest, here.  I'm going to assume that you aren't American, or aren't a native English speaker, or something.  Is this true?  If it is, I will be a little less harsh on you, but confusing Washington, D.C. with the state is ridiculous.

[OC]

The Dems who were obstructing defense authorization bills lost two elections based on the war on terror that is my evidence. It might be to some but not to everyone.  Kerry got defeated because Bush ran the ad over and over again, that he didn't fund the troops in Iraq, that's my proof.