Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 30, 2014, 03:15:14 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2006 Elections
| | |-+  2006 Senatorial Election Polls
| | | |-+  Rasmussen: Cantwell(D) above 50% against McGavick(R)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print
Author Topic: Rasmussen: Cantwell(D) above 50% against McGavick(R)  (Read 5305 times)
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #50 on: September 10, 2006, 01:37:33 pm »
Ignore

Well if you disagree with me on that there Dick Cheney came on MTP this morning and said that the biggest asset the Republicans have is that the republicans have kept people safe and they have won every election since 911. I think that may help out Republicans in close races. And you were not too long ago was argueiing with me that McGavick had a chance, why did you change.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2006, 01:39:42 pm by overton »Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #51 on: September 10, 2006, 01:42:40 pm »
Ignore

Well if you disagree with me on that there Dick Cheney came on MTP this morning and said that the biggest asset the Republicans have is that the republicans have kept people safe and they have won every election since 911. I think that may help out Republicans in close races. And you were not too long ago was argueiing with me that McGavick had a chance, why did you change.

I do think McGavick has a chance, but I think that he blew a huge part of his chance with screwing up the DUI confession.

And you still have not answered my question.  Why did you confuse Washington, the state, with the district?  I do not believe that any educated American would do this.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2006, 04:54:26 pm by Alcon »Logged

n/c
Downwinder
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 314


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -6.43

View Profile
« Reply #52 on: September 10, 2006, 08:50:45 pm »
Ignore

Why did the country vote for Bush in 2004 and he was unpopular as well? I agree with you that Washington isn't like the rest of the south but having an incumbant in the WH does give advantages to the party that is challenging the outparty. I was refering to the spending bills on defense spending not social spending bills like tax cuts. The country wants continued support of defense build up and Cantwell might not fit that bill. She hasn't vote  for all of Bush defense authorization bills.

Honestly Overton, I've found you to be miseducated, misinformed, and annoying lately.  And this post, and the ensuing posts from you just confirm to me that you are an idiot.  No Washington "isn't like the rest of the south", because it is not in the South, it is in the Pacific Northwest!!

And Bush was somewhat unpopular in 2004, and much more unpopular now!!  And do you know anything about Washington State and it's residents??  Yes, the eastern part of the state is more conservative, but it it's voice is usually drowned out by the democrats, liberals and ultra-liberals in the western part of the state. 

You are a moron!!

In my opinion, the factors of this race are that Cantwell is a freshman senator, whom the population still isn't sure of, and whom has made some mistakes in some of the minds of her traditional base of support.

Stop trolling every thread, when you clearly haven't got a grasp on the facts or political influences involved!!
Logged

11/07/06:  The American citizen wakes up!!  God Bless America!!
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #53 on: September 10, 2006, 08:58:37 pm »
Ignore

You call me a moran or an idiot. I didn't say that Cantwell was going to lose, you misread my comments. I said that the war on terror may help some GOP senators in some of the close races. It may be this one it may be in NJ. But you shouldn't resort to name calling when you disagree with someone. Take a look at my map, do I have Cantwell losing no I don't. I said that there are enough undecides in this race to make it close at the end. Plse read my comments thouroughly before you respond.
Logged
Downwinder
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 314


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -6.43

View Profile
« Reply #54 on: September 10, 2006, 09:24:18 pm »
Ignore

Oh, I read everything you write, the problem is it just makes no sense.  It jumps from argument to argument, without any clear realization of facts or political environment.
Logged

11/07/06:  The American citizen wakes up!!  God Bless America!!
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #55 on: September 10, 2006, 09:25:51 pm »
Ignore

To you it don't make since. I said that this is going to be a very close race with the undecides and that is what I was trying to say maybe I got some facts wrong but all the polls show that except the last two which was conducted before the revelation was revealed.
Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #56 on: September 11, 2006, 12:38:02 am »
Ignore

To you it don't make since. I said that this is going to be a very close race with the undecides and that is what I was trying to say maybe I got some facts wrong but all the polls show that except the last two which was conducted before the revelation was revealed.

Stop with the "revelation."  It's a minor scandal at best.
Logged

n/c
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #57 on: September 11, 2006, 05:23:47 am »
Ignore

Cantwell is the favorite but when debates come McGavick can put himself in position to will ultimately on election day.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2006, 09:02:31 am by overton »Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #58 on: September 11, 2006, 02:22:21 pm »
Ignore

Cantwell is the favorite but when debates come McGavick can put himself in position to will ultimately on election day.

I don't think there's much of a chance of McGavick being a significantly better debator than Cantwell.
Logged

n/c
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #59 on: September 11, 2006, 04:31:50 pm »
Ignore

I will go by the next SV vision poll they have a good record on predicting the outcome of WA races. It can be argued that they shouldn't be listened to as much, but I will will listen to the next one.  So far they have it nick and tuck.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2006, 04:50:47 pm by overton »Logged
Colin
ColinW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11778
Papua New Guinea


Political Matrix
E: 3.87, S: -6.09

View Profile
« Reply #60 on: September 11, 2006, 07:07:27 pm »
Ignore

Who the hell confuses Washington DC with Washinton state in a conversation like this?

I hope to God, overton, that you are a foreigner than at least there is a reason for your stupidity. However I would suggest to you, if you are an uninformed foreigner, that you either learn about America and American politics or you leave.

I seriously consider that you are now just actively trolling just due to your lack of any knowledge on most issues, your pig-headedness and your annoying behavior.
Logged

"God protects fools, drunks, and the United States of America" - Otto Von Bismarck

"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful." - Seneca the Younger

Quote from: Conservapedia
Thanks to Bryan's victory in the Scopes trial, Tennessee voters have been educated without oppressive evolution theory for 75 years. Free from the liberal indoctrination, Tennessee voted against native son Al Gore in the 2000 Presidential election.
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #61 on: September 11, 2006, 07:11:27 pm »
Ignore

I didn't confuse Washington DC with Washington state. That comment should be deleted from from this thread. I was talking about voting trends of the country. But the topic at hand was how close this election will be and I believe it will be close. You may disagree with that, but I do and that is all that counts.
Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #62 on: September 11, 2006, 07:42:58 pm »
Ignore

I didn't confuse Washington DC with Washington state. That comment should be deleted from from this thread. I was talking about voting trends of the country. But the topic at hand was how close this election will be and I believe it will be close. You may disagree with that, but I do and that is all that counts.

Actually, the topic at the hand currently seems to be, "Overton says that the race will be close over and over again without really explaining why."

And, yes, Washington votes differently than the South.  Huh?  Maybe that's because there are actually white Democrats here?
Logged

n/c
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #63 on: September 11, 2006, 07:45:22 pm »
Ignore

SV and Zogby has the race close and that is all that matters to me. And you said it too over the summer that SV had a good record on predicting races in WA and you said that McGavick had a good chance of winning.
Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #64 on: September 11, 2006, 08:35:00 pm »
Ignore

SV and Zogby has the race close and that is all that matters to me. And you said it too over the summer that SV had a good record on predicting races in WA and you said that McGavick had a good chance of winning.

Strategic Vision is good, but as Vorlon says...

One of these is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong...

And that is assuming that Strategic Vision comes out with a much closer poll.

Here's a look at the 2004 polls in Washington:

President - Everyone did very well.  There was not a bad poll for President in Washington in 2004.  Zogby did not poll toward election time.  Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision both did very well; SurveyUSA did decently, but was a bit on the GOP side.

Senate - Mason-Dixon did best (I forgot that Murray won by such a big margin), and they did well.  Strategic Vision was just OK, and SurveyUSA did poorly, but not whacky.

Gubernatoral - No one did particularly well.  SurveyUSA yet again was too Republican, Strategic Vision did pretty decently, and Mason-Dixon was too Democratic (although less than SurveyUSA was Republican).

So, in conclusion:

Strategic Vision - Good.

Mason-Dixon - Good, perhaps with a Democratic tilt.

SurveyUSA - OK, but too Republican.

No other polling firms polled close enough to the election to have a record, including Rasmussen and Zogby.

And, now, what do we have?  Strategic Vision more Republican than SurveyUSA, regularly.

And what does that mean?  That 2004 doesn't mean much for 2006, in Washington, so you can't make these assumptions you're making.

McGavick had a good chance of winning - an OK, at least - before the DUI crap.  Now he has a very remote chance of winning.
Logged

n/c
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #65 on: September 11, 2006, 08:41:49 pm »
Ignore

As long as Cantwell struggles in the polls I am leaning this towards Cantwell slightly. And in some polls she had struggled. If she had a substantial lead all the way through it would of been different. But struggling to get to 50% isn't good to be an incumbant no matter how much you lead in the polls and so far she has only been above 50% in two polls.
Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #66 on: September 11, 2006, 08:43:48 pm »
Ignore

As long as Cantwell struggles in the polls I am leaning this towards Cantwell slightly. And in some polls she had struggled. If she had a substantial lead all the way through it would of been different. But struggling to get to 50% isn't good to be an incumbant no matter how much you lead in the polls and so far she has only been above 50% in two polls.

Being over 50% isn't very important.  The margin is.  If a poll pushes undecideds harder than another, a candidate is more likely to go over 50%.

For instance, what's a better place to be -- ahead 50%-48% in the polls, or 49%-12%?
Logged

n/c
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9788
United States


View Profile
« Reply #67 on: September 11, 2006, 08:51:08 pm »
Ignore

I think this race will depend on turnout and turnout always dictate races in competetive races, and this race will come to that. Turnout is the key. If more republicans come out more McGavick has a chance for the upset. If it is a typical year like in Wa in years past McGavick has no chance.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2006, 08:52:40 pm by overton »Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #68 on: September 11, 2006, 08:51:37 pm »
Ignore

I think this race will depend on turnout and turnout always dictate races in competetive races, and this race will come to that. Turnout is the key.

And what groups do you think will turn out to help McGavick?
Logged

n/c
CultureKing
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3218
United States


View Profile
« Reply #69 on: September 11, 2006, 10:13:33 pm »
Ignore

personally I dont see any heavy turnout in any of Washington except for WA-08, most people see Cantwell heading to another term and all of the congressional districts besides Reichert are pretty safe, so I would say that is where to expect the highest turnout by far, and since the district is so split I would say that it doesnt really make a difference (in anything helping Cantwell a teeny-tiny bit... maybe)
Logged

Econ: -6.50, Social: -5.23
ottermax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1419
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

P P
View Profile
« Reply #70 on: September 11, 2006, 10:31:17 pm »
Ignore

This race is way too hyped. Cantwell will win, unless some odd scandal happens in the next two months. Why is everyone so freaked out about a not so close race? I don't see what the big deal is.
Logged
HardRCafé
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4403
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #71 on: September 12, 2006, 01:28:46 am »
Ignore

President - Everyone did very well.  There was not a bad poll for President in Washington in 2004.  Zogby did not poll toward election time.  Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision both did very well; SurveyUSA did decently, but was a bit on the GOP side.

What about Elway?
Logged

Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #72 on: September 12, 2006, 01:39:26 am »
Ignore

President - Everyone did very well.  There was not a bad poll for President in Washington in 2004.  Zogby did not poll toward election time.  Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision both did very well; SurveyUSA did decently, but was a bit on the GOP side.

What about Elway?

Elway's last poll was in mid-September, and was way too Democratic (as his polls almost always are).
Logged

n/c
HardRCafé
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4403
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #73 on: September 12, 2006, 01:49:02 am »
Ignore

Right.
Logged

Pages: 1 2 [3] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines