MD-Primary Sept 12

[nick]

I figured I would start a thread now so we can get a discussion going.  Possibly some predictions.  By the way, Im only posting the names of candidates that I believe have a chance to pull a decent % of the vote.

Dem Primary US Senate
Ben Cardin
Kweisi Mfume
Josh Rales
Other(s)

Dem Primary MD-3
John Sarbanes
Peter Beilenson
Paula Hollinger
Oz Bengur
Andy Barth
Other(s)

Dem Primary MD-4
Al Wynn (incumbent)
Donna Edwards (Kos' candidate)

Dem Primary Comptroller
William Donald Schaefer (incumbent)
Janet Owens
Peter Franchot

Dem Primary Attorney General
Stu Simms
Doug Gansler

Republican Primary Comptroller

Mark Spradley
Ann McCarthy
Stephen Abrams

[DownWithTheLeft]

Don't know much about the other races except Senate in which I back Mfume and expect him to win something like 44-42-14, I think Rales support is understated

[nick]

My Complete Ballot (not prediction)

Governor
O'Malley (he's unopposed anyway)
US Senate
Undecided (leaning strong Cardin)
MD-2
Dutch Ruppersberger
Attorney General
Stu Simms
Comptroller
Janet Owens
State Senate
Norman Stone
House of Delegates
Ron Schaeffer
County Executive
Jim Smith
County Council
John Olszewsk Sr

[nick]

Predictions

Dem Primary US Senate
Ben Cardin -  48%
Kweisi Mfume - 46%
Josh Rales - 4%
Other(s) - 2%

Dem Primary MD-3
Im not even going to venture a guess on the actual numbers.
1.  John Sarbanes
2.  Peter Beilenson
3.  Paula Hollinger

Dem Primary MD-4
Al Wynn - 67%
Donna Edwards - 32%
Other - 1%

Dem Primary Comptroller
Again, not messing with the #'s on this one.
1.  William Donald Schaefer (incumbent)
2.  Janet Owens
3.  Peter Franchot

Dem Primary Attorney General
Stu Simms - 53%
Doug Gansler - 47%

Republican Primary Comptroller

1.  Mark Spradley
2.  Ann McCarthy
3.  Stephen Abrams

[DownWithTheLeft]

Nick, Rales cuts into Cardin right?

[nick]

Definitely.

Its very possible that he could swing this thing to Mfume.  He's been on TV more than Mfume and Cardin combined.  He's playing to that whole - Im not a career politician crowd.  However, I really cannot see more than 4-5% of voters wasting their vote on Rales in a senate race that is clearly between Cardin and Mfume, and clearly going to be very, very close.

[nick]

What some people here fail to see is... Under certain circumstances, Mfume is just as strong, if not stronger, than Cardin.  Here on the ground in MD there is a common consensus that if both Mfume and Simms lose their primary, blacks are going to...

A- Stay home in large numbers (similar to what happend in 2002).
B- Protest vote for Steele.

(keep in mind Maryland is 35% black)

Think about it.  If the Democrats a field ticket like this.

O'Malley - Governor (White dude)
Cardin - Senate (Pasty old white dude)
Gansler - Attorney General (Young cocky white dude)
Schaefer - Comptroller (Crazy old white dude)

Is the base (read: African Americans) really going to turn out for a statewide Democratic ticket like that?  Your kidding yourself if you say, yes.

Races in MD are won by turning out the base.

Meanwhile Republicans are looking at the following ticket.

Ehrlich - Governor
Steele - Senate (African American)
Rolle - Attorney General
Spradley - (African American)


Everything found in this post contributes to why I am now somewhat undecided between Cardin and Mfume.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Kweisi Mfume's campaign has such a strong and emotive message that I support him and want him to win.

[Rob]

I think Kweisi Mfume's campaign has such a strong and emotive message that I support him and want him to win.

I second this. I was a tepid supporter of Cardin for most of this campaign, mainly because of the "electability" factor. You know what? Fuck that. I simply don't see Steele beating Mfume- not in Maryland. Not in 2006. He'll make it closer, sure, but in the end I predict a 5-6% Mfume win.

Mfume has got an amazing life-story. He's highly intelligent and he has loads of charisma. I wouldn't be unhappy if Cardin wins the primary, but I endorse Kweisi Mfume for Senate.

[Mike in Maryland]

My ballot (who I'll vote for, not necessarily who will win, but all of these have some chance to do so):

Governor: Martin O'Malley
US Senate: Probably Ben Cardin
CD 8: Chris Van Hollen
Attorney General: Stu Simms
Comptroller: Undecided; leaning to Jan Owens
State Senate (District 17): Jennie Forehand (unopposed)
State House: Kumar Barve, Luiz Simmons, and Ryan Spiegel
County Executive: Ike Leggett
County Council (At Large): Marc Elrich, Mike Subin, Nancy Floreen, and one undecided spot
County Council (district 3): Undecided; leaning Phil Andrews
State's Attorney: John McCarthy

[Mike in Maryland]

What some people here fail to see is... Under certain circumstances, Mfume is just as strong, if not stronger, than Cardin.  Here on the ground in MD there is a common consensus that if both Mfume and Simms lose their primary, blacks are going to...

A- Stay home in large numbers (similar to what happend in 2002).
B- Protest vote for Steele.

(keep in mind Maryland is 35% black)

Think about it.  If the Democrats a field ticket like this.

O'Malley - Governor (White dude)
Cardin - Senate (Pasty old white dude)
Gansler - Attorney General (Young cocky white dude)
Schaefer - Comptroller (Crazy old white dude)

Is the base (read: African Americans) really going to turn out for a statewide Democratic ticket like that?  Your kidding yourself if you say, yes.

Races in MD are won by turning out the base.

Meanwhile Republicans are looking at the following ticket.

Ehrlich - Governor
Steele - Senate (African American)
Rolle - Attorney General
Spradley - (African American)


Everything found in this post contributes to why I am now somewhat undecided between Cardin and Mfume.

Nick, do you think that if Mfume is the nominee that he'll generate enough black turnout to offset defections from moderate white Democrats who would likely vote for Cardin but may have problems with Mfume?  Or will there not be that many white defections (what's the sense you get of opinion around Dundalk and thereabouts?)  My sense is such defections explain why Cardin has generally run better in the polls against Steele than Mfume has, though the factor of higher/lower turnout is somewhat intangible.

If Cardin is the nominee, I don't see a massive shift of blacks voting for Steele, not after his positions on the issues and alliance with the Bush adminsitration become the focus of the campaign instead of the slogans and platitudes that he's largely campaigned on.  (BTW, I've seen polls that show Steele getting about a third of decided black voters and still losing to Cardin by several points.)  But there is also the possibility that many African Americans might stay home which could be problematic for the entire ticket (as in 2002.) 

That's one reason why I switched my support from Gansler to Simms for attorney general; with African-American and Baltimore regional support I think Simms has a good chance to win his race despite being outspent.  But I still have some doubts about Mfume's electability; how many white Dems can he hold and can he gin up enough black turnout to win? (About 29-30% of the state's population is black; usually the proportion of voters in general elections is lower though Mfume and Simms, and for that matter Anthony Brown, could help change that.)

I also once favored reelecting William Donald Schaefer, despite his gaffes, but not so much now.  It seems that every time he opens his mouth he's insulting someone or making some mistake;  he's not so much endearingly plainspoken as just tiringly strident.  Do people really want four more years of that?

[Vasall des Midas]

Nick, do you think that if Mfume is the nominee that he'll generate enough black turnout to offset defections from moderate white Democrats who would likely vote for Cardin but may have problems with Mfume?  Or will there not be that many white defections (what's the sense you get of opinion around Dundalk and thereabouts?)  My sense is such defections explain why Cardin has generally run better in the polls against Steele than Mfume has, though the factor of higher/lower turnout is somewhat intangible.

The factor of higher/lower turnout is very hard to poll... not that I think anyone's trying.

There is a lot of potential for defections either way -
Blacks could vote for Steele over Cardin
White Democrats could vote for Steele over Mfume
White Republicans could vote for Cardin over Steele.

The third one is the only one with the potential to move this race out of the Lean Dem category (and into Safe Dem territory), were it to happen in significant numbers. Thing is, if this were happening, we'd probably know by now - it would be reflected in the polls. Thence, there seems to be no reason to assume that either Cardin or Mfume is significantly more electable than the other.

[nick]

At one point Cardin was tied with Steele among whites.  I believe Steele leads by a decent margin now.

My underyling point was, if there is not a single black candidate on the dem slate, we will be in bad shape come November.

Mike, the party 'bosses' and pundits know what we know too.  Why do you think Miller, Busch, Hoyer, Jim Smith, and several others all of sudden threw their weight behind Simms.  Obviously he's qualified - probably more so than Gansler - but you can bet race was the #1 factor.

[mddem2004]

I have to agree with much of the sentiment of "Rob" above. I was leaning Cardin initially, then I heard their debate last week and Mfume won me over. I've always liked Mfume....didnt think he had a real shot at it though. Several of my friends who have never paid attention to politics were quite impressed with him as well in the debate.

The way I see it, either candidate will get my full support in the general election. I've always liked them both. However....The Senate today already has too many "Ben Cardin's" in it.

Time for some Mfume....

[Adlai Stevenson]

I have to agree with much of the sentiment of "Rob" above. I was leaning Cardin initially, then I heard their debate last week and Mfume won me over. I've always liked Mfume....didnt think he had a real shot at it though. Several of my friends who have never paid attention to politics were quite impressed with him as well in the debate.

The way I see it, either candidate will get my full support in the general election. I've always liked them both. However....The Senate today already has too many "Ben Cardin's" in it.

Time for some Mfume....

You're completely right.  I wondered why I felt apathy about Cardin and you have made me realise; there are too many Cardins already in the United States Senate.  Its not that Cardin wouldn't be a good Senator, but if we have the chance to elect Mfume I instantly prefer him.  There is just something charismatic and individual about him.  Another black Senator would be a good thing too.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Wow, it seems like the GOP knows how to use African Americans against the Democrats down in Maryland.  I'm surprised no one is trying it in PA.  You could say Swann, but he's a joke candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

I am hoping for an Mfume win but Cardin will pull through.

[nick]

Some pundits on WBAL (local talk radio) are predicting strong turnout tomorrow among African Americans.

Mfume vs Cardin
Stu Simms vs Gansler
Donna Edwards vs Al Wynn
PG County has a hotly contested race for County Exectuive.
Ike Legget could be the first African American elected County Executive of Montgomery County.

[OC]

It looks like Cardin is going to win with room to spare. I am so glad. This race isn't going to go to the republicans if that happens.

[Torie]

It looks like Cardin is going to win with room to spare. I am so glad. This race isn't going to go to the republicans if that happens.

It isn't going to happen for Mfume. From Political Wire:

"On the eve of Maryland's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Ben Cardin (D) "appears to rally" to defeat Kweisi Mfume (D), according to a new SurveyUSA poll. "Since an identical poll 11 days ago, Cardin has gained 9 points, Mfume has lost 4 points. Cardin had trailed by 4, now leads by 9, a 13-point swing."

"Key findings: "Middle-income voters have moved decisively to Cardin. Cardin had trailed by 20, now leads by 5 among those with annual household incomes of $40,000 to $80,000. Cardin wins 4:1 among White voters. Mfume wins 5:1 among African-American voters. Cardin has an overwhelming 70% to 15% lead among voters over age 65, the most reliable voters. Mfume leads among voters under age 50."

"Caveat: "If voter turnout is very high, Mfume has a chance to catch Cardin."

Good news for one party, then bad news, then good news. It is like a see-saw.  It can get one dizzy.

[Nation]

I've already sent in my absentee ballot for Rales, so, I'm set.

[Harry]

Mfume is simply a more likable and striking candidate than Cardin, and I'm definitely rooting for him.  And he'll beat Steele...it'll be close, but he'll win.

Too bad for Cardin though, because he's a decent guy too. 

[auburntiger]

GO STEELE!!!

[nick]

Just finsihed voting...

My Primary Ballot-
Governor - O'Malley
Senate - Cardin (I was this close to voting for Mfume, but straw that broke the camels back for me was campaign cash.  We simply cannot afford to draw millions away from PA, MO, VA, RI, OH, etc... to save Mfume.)
Attorney General - Stu Simms
Comptroller - Janet Owens
Congress - Dutch Ruppersberger
State Senate - Norman Stone
Delegate - Ron Schaefer

The rest are local county offices, so I wont bother listing them.

[nick]

I've already sent in my absentee ballot for Rales, so, I'm set.

You and my girlfriend should get together.  Two goofballs throwing away their vote (she voted for Rales, too, but only because he shook her hand at the parade).


...just kidding about the goofball thing