MD-Primary Sept 12

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I figured I would start a thread now so we can get a discussion going.  Possibly some predictions.  By the way, Im only posting the names of candidates that I believe have a chance to pull a decent % of the vote.

Dem Primary US Senate
Ben Cardin
Kweisi Mfume
Josh Rales
Other(s)

Dem Primary MD-3
John Sarbanes
Peter Beilenson
Paula Hollinger
Oz Bengur
Andy Barth
Other(s)

Dem Primary MD-4
Al Wynn (incumbent)
Donna Edwards (Kos' candidate)

Dem Primary Comptroller
William Donald Schaefer (incumbent)
Janet Owens
Peter Franchot

Dem Primary Attorney General
Stu Simms
Doug Gansler

Republican Primary Comptroller

Mark Spradley
Ann McCarthy
Stephen Abrams

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My Complete Ballot (not prediction)

Governor
O'Malley (he's unopposed anyway)
US Senate
Undecided (leaning strong Cardin)
MD-2
Dutch Ruppersberger
Attorney General
Stu Simms
Comptroller
Janet Owens
State Senate
Norman Stone
House of Delegates
Ron Schaeffer
County Executive
Jim Smith
County Council
John Olszewsk Sr

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Predictions

Dem Primary US Senate
Ben Cardin -  48%
Kweisi Mfume - 46%
Josh Rales - 4%
Other(s) - 2%

Dem Primary MD-3
Im not even going to venture a guess on the actual numbers.
1.  John Sarbanes
2.  Peter Beilenson
3.  Paula Hollinger

Dem Primary MD-4
Al Wynn - 67%
Donna Edwards - 32%
Other - 1%

Dem Primary Comptroller
Again, not messing with the #'s on this one.
1.  William Donald Schaefer (incumbent)
2.  Janet Owens
3.  Peter Franchot

Dem Primary Attorney General
Stu Simms - 53%
Doug Gansler - 47%

Republican Primary Comptroller

1.  Mark Spradley
2.  Ann McCarthy
3.  Stephen Abrams

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Definitely.

Its very possible that he could swing this thing to Mfume.  He's been on TV more than Mfume and Cardin combined.  He's playing to that whole - Im not a career politician crowd.  However, I really cannot see more than 4-5% of voters wasting their vote on Rales in a senate race that is clearly between Cardin and Mfume, and clearly going to be very, very close.

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What some people here fail to see is... Under certain circumstances, Mfume is just as strong, if not stronger, than Cardin.  Here on the ground in MD there is a common consensus that if both Mfume and Simms lose their primary, blacks are going to...

A- Stay home in large numbers (similar to what happend in 2002).
B- Protest vote for Steele.

(keep in mind Maryland is 35% black)

Think about it.  If the Democrats a field ticket like this.

O'Malley - Governor (White dude)
Cardin - Senate (Pasty old white dude)
Gansler - Attorney General (Young cocky white dude)
Schaefer - Comptroller (Crazy old white dude)

Is the base (read: African Americans) really going to turn out for a statewide Democratic ticket like that?  Your kidding yourself if you say, yes.

Races in MD are won by turning out the base.

Meanwhile Republicans are looking at the following ticket.

Ehrlich - Governor
Steele - Senate (African American)
Rolle - Attorney General
Spradley - (African American)


Everything found in this post contributes to why I am now somewhat undecided between Cardin and Mfume.

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At one point Cardin was tied with Steele among whites.  I believe Steele leads by a decent margin now.

My underyling point was, if there is not a single black candidate on the dem slate, we will be in bad shape come November.

Mike, the party 'bosses' and pundits know what we know too.  Why do you think Miller, Busch, Hoyer, Jim Smith, and several others all of sudden threw their weight behind Simms.  Obviously he's qualified - probably more so than Gansler - but you can bet race was the #1 factor.

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Some pundits on WBAL (local talk radio) are predicting strong turnout tomorrow among African Americans.

Mfume vs Cardin
Stu Simms vs Gansler
Donna Edwards vs Al Wynn
PG County has a hotly contested race for County Exectuive.
Ike Legget could be the first African American elected County Executive of Montgomery County.

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Just finsihed voting...

My Primary Ballot-
Governor - O'Malley
Senate - Cardin (I was this close to voting for Mfume, but straw that broke the camels back for me was campaign cash.  We simply cannot afford to draw millions away from PA, MO, VA, RI, OH, etc... to save Mfume.)
Attorney General - Stu Simms
Comptroller - Janet Owens
Congress - Dutch Ruppersberger
State Senate - Norman Stone
Delegate - Ron Schaefer

The rest are local county offices, so I wont bother listing them.

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I've already sent in my absentee ballot for Rales, so, I'm set.

You and my girlfriend should get together.  Two goofballs throwing away their vote (she voted for Rales, too, but only because he shook her hand at the parade).


...just kidding about the goofball thing

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lol, Im not sure if she checks in on me or not.  She always claims I have a 'internet' girflriend, because I spend so much time online talking politics.


While I was casting my ballot today, I helped one African American woman vote for Mfume.  She kept clicking his name, but the voting machine would not accept her selection.  When touching Mfume it would cast the vote for McCaskill...  We eventually got it straightened out.  She was very excited to be voting for Mfume.  I just hope she feels the same way about Cardin if he makes it out of the primary.  Better yet, I hope she wont be that excited to vote for Steele.

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Cardin in trouble or just playing it safe?

From Cardin's Email -

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ive heard reports that turnout is poor throughout the state.  On my way to school and work (Baltimore City) this morning I saw two Mfume vehicles equiped with loud speakers urging people to get out and vote.

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Jake, his name is Ron Schaefer.  He's finished and will probably end up in 6th out of 8.  The ticket (incumbents) were just too strong.

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Delegate District 6

John Olszewski Jr.   3871   23%
Sonny Minnick   3087   18%
Mike Weir   2920   17%
Jane Brooks   2168   13%
Jake Mohorovic   2056   12%
Ron Schaeffer   1708   10%
Russ Mirabile   736   4%
Eric Washington   537   3%
Diane DeCarlo   0   0%

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MD-3 Dem Primary

John SARBANES   4140   33%
Peter BEILENSON   3039   23%
Paula HOLLINGER   2792   21%
Andy BARTH   1529   12%
Kevin O'KEEFFE   571   4%
Oz BENGUR   530   4%
Mishonda BALDWIN   424   3%
John REA   58   0%

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Mark my words, if both Mfume and Simms lose tonight, O'Malley and Cardin are going to have a very rough 2 months.

African Americans are not going to turn out for a O'Malley/Cardin/Gansler/WHITECOMPTROLLER ticket.

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Probably, but Im watching the evening news and apparently the numbers that are in arent from Baltimore City, so we'll see.

Point still stands, Mfume and Simms lose, O'Malley will probably lose and Cardin will have a hell of a fight against Steele (Mfume would have, too, but at least race would have been off the table).

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Im pretty bummed about District 6, as you know my guy game up short.  IMO, was the most qualified candidate in the race.  He just got in too late (filed the day of the deadline).

ps - WBAL is declaring Doug Gansler winner in AG Race.

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Race to watch...

MD-4 Dem Primary

Al *WYNN   13274   52%
Donna EDWARDS   11199   44%
George McDERMOTT   928   4%

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WBAL is still reporting that very little in from Baltimore City.

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Not sure.  It seems like everytime we hear some good results from Baltimore City for Mfume, Cardin makes up ground in MoCo.

Here is the breakdown of PRECINCTS REPORTING by Congressional District

1st: 52%
2nd: 48%
3rd: 42%
4th: 42%
5th: 40%
6th: 51%
7th: 20%
8th: 24%

The one that sticks out the most is the 7th (Elijah Cummings).

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FOX 45 is reporting that half of the precincts in Baltimore City have yet to report.

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66% Reporting (only half of Baltimore City Reporting)

Ben CARDIN   149019   47%
Kweisi MFUME   119772   37%
Josh RALES   18535   6%

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66% Reporting

Janet OWENS   114553   35%
Peter FRANCHOT   110805   34%
Wm. Donald *SCHAEFER   102192   31%

Willie Don is in trouble.

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Given that PG County, Mont Co and B-more City are all about 50% in, I'd say that Cardin ends up winning this thing by about 15,000 votes, give or take a few thousand.

Probably.  Like I said earlier, Mfume surges when Baltimore comes in, but Cardin chops him back down with results come in from MoCo.

Oh well, in many ways this race is widen open in the general.  Race is now on the table and will be a major issue.  Will Mfume supporters get out and support Cardin or will they stay home?  Take it one step further, will they be pissed enough to vote for Steele?  The dem bosses wrote Mfume off before he even announced and his people know that.  He ran an INCREDIBLE campaign for being outspent 20 to 1.  Talk about grassroots.

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The race to watch will be the race for Comptroller.  Its really a complete coin flip.

Off to bed.  Gonna' be a rough 2 months and I need my rest.