What some people here fail to see is... Under certain circumstances, Mfume is just as strong, if not stronger, than Cardin. Here on the ground in MD there is a common consensus that if both Mfume and Simms lose their primary, blacks are going to...
A- Stay home in large numbers (similar to what happend in 2002).
B- Protest vote for Steele.
(keep in mind Maryland is 35% black)
Think about it. If the Democrats a field ticket like this.
O'Malley - Governor (White dude)
Cardin - Senate (Pasty old white dude)
Gansler - Attorney General (Young cocky white dude)
Schaefer - Comptroller (Crazy old white dude)
Is the base (read: African Americans) really going to turn out for a statewide Democratic ticket like that? Your kidding yourself if you say, yes.
Races in MD are won by turning out the base.
Meanwhile Republicans are looking at the following ticket.
Ehrlich - Governor
Steele - Senate (African American)
Rolle - Attorney General
Spradley - (African American)
Everything found in this post contributes to why I am now somewhat undecided between Cardin and Mfume.
Nick, do you think that if Mfume is the nominee that he'll generate enough black turnout to offset defections from moderate white Democrats who would likely vote for Cardin but may have problems with Mfume? Or will there not be that many white defections (what's the sense you get of opinion around Dundalk and thereabouts?) My sense is such defections explain why Cardin has generally run better in the polls against Steele than Mfume has, though the factor of higher/lower turnout is somewhat intangible.
If Cardin is the nominee, I don't see a massive shift of blacks voting for Steele, not after his positions on the issues and alliance with the Bush adminsitration become the focus of the campaign instead of the slogans and platitudes that he's largely campaigned on. (BTW, I've seen polls that show Steele getting about a third of decided black voters and still losing to Cardin by several points.) But there is also the possibility that many African Americans might stay home which could be problematic for the entire ticket (as in 2002.)
That's one reason why I switched my support from Gansler to Simms for attorney general; with African-American and Baltimore regional support I think Simms has a good chance to win his race despite being outspent. But I still have some doubts about Mfume's electability; how many white Dems can he hold and can he gin up enough black turnout to win? (About 29-30% of the state's population is black; usually the proportion of voters in general elections is lower though Mfume and Simms, and for that matter Anthony Brown, could help change that.)
I also once favored reelecting William Donald Schaefer, despite his gaffes, but not so much now. It seems that every time he opens his mouth he's insulting someone or making some mistake; he's not so much endearingly plainspoken as just tiringly strident. Do people really want four more years of that?
