Nick, do you think that if Mfume is the nominee that he'll generate enough black turnout to offset defections from moderate white Democrats who would likely vote for Cardin but may have problems with Mfume? Or will there not be that many white defections (what's the sense you get of opinion around Dundalk and thereabouts?) My sense is such defections explain why Cardin has generally run better in the polls against Steele than Mfume has, though the factor of higher/lower turnout is somewhat intangible.
The factor of higher/lower turnout is very hard to poll... not that I think anyone's trying.
There is a lot of potential for defections either way -
Blacks could vote for Steele over Cardin
White Democrats could vote for Steele over Mfume
White Republicans could vote for Cardin over Steele.
The third one is the only one with the potential to move this race out of the Lean Dem category (and into Safe Dem territory), were it to happen in significant numbers. Thing is, if this were happening, we'd probably know by now - it would be reflected in the polls. Thence, there seems to be no reason to assume that either Cardin or Mfume is significantly more electable than the other.
