Seats that you think will go opposite of what polls show.

[Jacobtm]

Are there any seats out there that you think will end up completely different than polls show?

I've always thought NJ was a lock for Menendez, and still do, despite people's current opinions. People may be very dissatisfied with him (and have every reason to be), but the fact is that it's NJ, and they simply will not give Bush another helper in the Senate.

Same goes with Montana. I used to believe Burns could be unseated, but recently I began to realize that all his opponent could do was attack Burns for being corrupt and then say bland optimistic things. Meanwhile, Burns can go around reminding everyone that Tester is a Democrat, and that Democrats are liberal, and that Montana is not. It just seems more and more unlikely that Burns will lose, even though he is also a horrible senator.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Are there any seats out there that you think will end up completely different than polls show?

I've always thought NJ was a lock for Menendez, and still do.

Ok, that's it, after hearing that I realize this person is obviously incoherent and responding would only acknowledge that I want to respond to his thread.

Anything other Bush=Kean that makes you believe this?  B/c even NJ isn't that dumb, and believe me, were pretty dumb voters.

[jacob_101]

Sure I will go out on a limb...

Ford wins Tennessee
Steele wins MD if Mfume is nominated.

[adam]

The Missouri senate race. I still see a loss in Talent's future.

[Deano963]

I think the Democrats pick up the ID-01 seat from uber-wingnut Bill Sali.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MN and RI can go to the GOP. As for the Dems takeover VA is the more likely scenario. But it might counteract a GOP net gain somewhere else like MO.  As for the House, my upsets are PA 7 and WV Mollahan's seat can go the opposite where the polls say.

[Jacobtm]

Are there any seats out there that you think will end up completely different than polls show?

I've always thought NJ was a lock for Menendez, and still do.

Ok, that's it, after hearing that I realize this person is obviously incoherent and responding would only acknowledge that I want to respond to his thread.

Anything other Bush=Kean that makes you believe this?  B/c even NJ isn't that dumb, and believe me, were pretty dumb voters.

Look, I realize Kean is not exactly the same as Bush, but the fact is, that he's a Republican. What do you suppose he won't vote with the Republican caucass on? Gun control perhaps? Certainly he's gonna be more liberal/progressive than someone like Allen or Santorum, but almost all of the Senate is completely polarized. Senators are very loyal to their party's interest groups, and rarely tend to stray from the strict party line. Look at this, for instance:

http://www.electoral-vote.com:2006/evp2006/Info/senator-ratings.html

This is an average of the ratings that 4 liberal and 4 conservative interest groups give all the Senators. A score of 100 is perfectly alligned with the liberal interests, and a score of 0 is perfectly alligned with conservative interests. Notice how many senators fall at either extreme, compared to how many senators fall in the middle.

Kean isn't responsible for Bush's major messups, but he's not going to do anything to prevent them, he's not going to stand up to this administration or try to put anything right that they've done wrong.

Realistically, Kean will all but be forced to vote with the Republican caucus on Judges, issues of civil liberty, issues of taxation, issues of subsidies, issues of government patronage, issues of military importance, and most truly important issues. Maybe he'll vary once in a while, but he will not be an ideological match for NJ.

Plus, the average voter doesn't delve into the issues too deeply, and the Bush=Kean strategy is as good a strategy as Tester=generic liberal. It may not be 100% true, but winning campaigns isn't about telling the truth. The Democratic machine in NJ will simply not allow Kean to pull a victory off.

[Smash255]

Regarding Kean and Bush.  This is a Democratic State, Kean is a Republican, Bush is a Republican.  Bush is unpopular nationwide and very unpopular in New Jersey.  Its that R next to his name that does Kean in more than any issues he might be similar to Bush on.  When a party has an unpopular President its very hard to pick up seats, especially IN A  state that generally favors the opposing Party.

[Conan]

It makes me happy to see republicans think that they will win in NJ. It's going to be extremely funny in late November.

[MarkWarner08]

I normally defer to Jake, not only becuase he's from PA-10, but also because of his political acumen, but I think Sherwood's going to lose.

I also think Jean Schmidt or Barbara Cubin will lose. All three of these incumbent Republicans are possibly headed to defeat in heavily conservative districts because of their personal problems.

I wouldn't be shocked if Vermont or Illinois 8 go Republican.

[Tender Branson]

It makes me happy to see republicans think that they will win in NJ. It's going to be extremely funny in late November.

This will be in the Comedy Goldmine if NJ goes Kean. Allthough i too think Menendez will win the race.

[Boris]

NJ - Republicans generally overpeform in polls.
PA - Just a feeling that Santorum will pull of what was once considered to be impossible.
VA - Allen will win by a comfy (10 pt) margin; not a two or three point race that some polls show.
TN - Corker wins by 5-9 points, not a statistical tie that rasmussen has just showed.

I'm probably wrong on all three of these, but what the hell?

[Jake]

Pennsylvania, where I've been calling a Santorum victory for over a year.
Missouri, which I don't think will be close as is being shown (around a 6% GOP victory).

Haven't really been looking at House polls.

[MarkWarner08]

Pennsylvania, where I've been calling a Santorum victory for over a year.
Missouri, which I don't think will be close as is being shown (around a 6% GOP victory).

Haven't really been looking at House polls.

Jake, are you aware Talent has so far outspent McCaskill 12-1? The DSCC's $7 million ad buy has just begun.  If Talent's still up by 3 or more points in two weeks, it's a Talent victory. Otherwise, this race is a pure tossup.

[ATFFL]

NJ - Republicans generally overpeform in polls.
PA - Just a feeling that Santorum will pull of what was once considered to be impossible.
VA - Allen will win by a comfy (10 pt) margin; not a two or three point race that some polls show.
TN - Corker wins by 5-9 points, not a statistical tie that rasmussen has just showed.

I'm probably wrong on all three of these, but what the hell?

Well, I certainly am not going to be trusting your math. 

[Downwinder]

I will stick my neck way, way out, and predict that the race that will blow everyone away will be Nevada.  Goodbye Senator Ensign, Hello Senator Carter.  Why?  Just a gut feeling.  If any state is ready to swing drastically to the other side, it is Nevada.

[DownWithTheLeft]

It makes me happy to see republicans think that they will win in NJ. It's going to be extremely funny in late November.

Conan, too bad all Dems don't think like you.  Then this race could be a cakewalk instead of the 3-5 point margin we should win by.  I love how you are still blind to Bob Menendez's corruption.  You and Smash should have a "Were Going to Live in Dem Fantasy World and Think This Seat is Safe" Party.  I am all but assuring a Kean victory day by day.  Their is only one thing to derail him and that is the switch to Dick Codey, in which I might be undecided in this race and Codey would comfortably win.

Conan and Smash,
you guys are big on Kean=Bush, so here's some more math

Menendez=Corzine
Menendez=Torricelli
Menendez=Schumer (the bank guy that's in jail)
Menendez=Dem machine
Menendez=corruption

Wow, if all Kean has to overcome is that he equals Bush, maybe this will be cakewalk.

[7,052,770]

Dems will probably lose NJ (good riddance Menendez and Hello, Kean), but it's ok since we're going to pick up 7.  I actually have money on us winning TN, which we will...I'm starting to be less confident on an AZ, but I haven't given up hope yet.  And of course we're going to win MS, but there's no poll to show any opposite of!