State Legislature Predictions

[Alcon]

Since we have such a varied geographical base here, and educated folks from every state, I thought it would be fun to have a State Legislature predictions thread.  After all, tracking all of the legislatures on one's own is a pain in the butt.

Here's Washington:

House
Of Washington's 98 House seats, 21 are what I would regard as quite competitive.  Of these, 11 are controlled by Republicans and 10 by Democrats.  This is more of a reflection of the marginal natures of these seats and candidates than of partisan competitiveness in the state.

My current prediction is three seats switching to the Democrats:

* 17A, consisting suburban Vancouver
* 23B, covering northern Bremerton and northern Kitsap County, and Bainbridge Island
* 24A, consisting Jefferson and Clallam counties and portions of Grays Harbor county Hoquiam and north

I also predict that one seat will flip to the Republicans:

* 48B, consisting the central eastside suburbs around Medina, Bellevue and Redmond, to Lake Sammamish

This seat is being vacated by Rodney Tom, who switched from Republican to Democrat and is challenging State Senator Luke Esser instead of running again.

My current prediction for the House make-up is Democrats 58, Republicans 41, a switch of two to the Democrats.

The best-case scenarios are basically if every "lean" seat went in one direction, which is not happening.  One party would have to pull a 1992-like legislative landslide (national 1992 landslide, not local) to achieve this.  At the current time, I see the Democrats as more likely to do this, but both very unlikely.

Best-case Democratic scenario is Democrats 66, Republicans 32.

Best-case Republican scenario is Republicans 54, Democrats 44.

Senate
Of Washington's 98 Senate races, 24 are up for re-election.  Of these, 9 are what I would consider as quite competitive.  Of these, all but one are Republican-controlled seats, something which is definitely not good news for the GOP.

My current prediction is four seats switching to the Democrats:

* The 6th, consisting the western Spokane suburbs
* The 26th, consisting southern Bremerton and southern Kitsap County, and the Gig Harbor and Key Peninsulas in northwestern Pierce County
* The 47th, consisting the exurban Green River Valley area in southern King County
* The 48th, consisting the central eastside suburbs around Medina, Bellevue and Redmond, to Lake Sammamish

I do not currently predict that the Republicans will gain anything.

Best-case Democratic scenario is Democrats 33, Republicans 16.

Best-case Republican scenario is Democrats 28, Republicans 21.

[Sam Spade]

Jimrtex put up a good list of the Texas House seats that will be competitive this year, so I'll go and try to find it.  All 150 are up for reelection.

Texas Senate is really quite easy, since Texas Senate seats are larger than US Congressional Districts.  Also, only half (16) of the seats are up for election this year.  The other half (15) will be up in 2008.

11 of the seats have incumbents running.  All incumbents are safe (ultra-safe really).  8 of the incumbents are Republican, and 5 of these don't have Democratic challengers.  One doesn't have any challengers. (the rest have Libertarian challengers).  3 of the incumbents are Democratic, 1 is without a challenger, the other two have Republican challengers, but no Libertarian challengers.

That leaves us five seats where there are no incumbents. 

- St. Sen. 3 (R) will be safe Republican, since there is no challenger for the open seat to the Republican.
- St. Sen. 7 (R) features talk-radio guru Dan Patrick against Democratic candidate Michael Kubosh.  This is an ultra-Republican Houston suburban seat in northwest Harris county.  Safe Republican.
- St. Sen. 14 (D) will be safe Democrat.  Kirk Watson only has a Libertarian challenger for this mainly Travis County seat.
- St. Sen. 18 (D) is a safe Republican takeover.  The former St. Senator was a conservative Democrat in an area of Texas not favorable to Democrats any more, specifically rural southeast Texas southwest of Houston along the coast.  The Democratic candidate dropped out about a month ago, leaving the Republican with only a Libertarian challenger.
- St. Sen. 19 (D) will be the most competitive State Senate seat this year.  It is eerily similar, but slightly more Democratic (less Bexar Anglo suburbs), to the revised TX-23 drawn for this cycle.  We have Democrat Carlos Uresti pitted against Republican Dick Bowen.  This is a Likely Dem seat, and I think Uresti wins with about 55%-60%.  Hispanics also vote more Democratic on the local level here than otherwise, also fueling my thinking.

So, the State Senate will go to 20 Republicans, 11 Democrats under a best-case Dem scenario and under a best-case Rep scenario, we would get 21 Republicans, 10 Democrats.  Yawn.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina

The Senate will definitely remain in GOP control since the Senate is not up for election this year, which help explains why executive office candidates are so often State Senators in this State

The House is almost certain to remain in the GOP.  While the Dems might gain a seat or two, there aren't that many GOP seats that they are contesting with credible candidates, so even if an unexpected Democratic surge happens in the next two months, they aren't in a position to capitalize on it.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Stupid Jersey, we have our midterms in odd years

Oh well, our governor's race gets a lot of attention

Hopefully someone other than Doug "Empty Suit w/Cash" Forrester will run.

[Flying Dog]

Michigan:

The state Senate will definitly remain republican but I think the dems will pick up 1-2 seats. Its currently R22-D16.

The state House could swich. It has been trending democratic the past few election cycles. It all depends on the governors race. If Granholm is above 52% than I think they will pick it up. Anything below than no.

[Moooooo]

I dont know enough about every district to do a district by districy analysis.

If Ehrlich wins be a decent margin his coattails could sweep 2-3 Republicans into the Senate and a handful or so into the house.

Democrats are in good shape to knock of at least one incumbent state senator.

[© tweed]

New York

Democrats will increase thir 60-seat majority in the State Assembly and retake the state senate (which is currently 35R-27D).  With Spitzer pulling 70%, the power grab will be complete and we can embark on creating a poorlovers' paradise.  (The reason the GOP currently holds the state senate is because the structre of it favors them; each county gets 1 senator, plus up to an addition two based on population, so the Bronx gets much less proportional represenation than does some backwater hick county upstate.  If the seats were fairly distributed it'd look more like 5:1 D:R).

[TeePee4Prez]

For Southeastern PA, which is all I really know, I can see pickups in the 150th, 152nd, and 170th (Boyle-Kenney) for the Democrats. 

[Wiz in Wis]

Wisconsin

Current:

House:
59R - 39D (1R Vacancy)

Senate:
19R - 14D

Projected:

House:
53R - 46D

Senate:
16R - 17D (Party Switch)

[Keystone Phil]

For Southeastern PA, which is all I really know, I can see pickups in the 150th, 152nd, and 170th (Boyle-Kenney) for the Democrats. 

150 - Possible
152 - Likely
170 - Wait another term, if that...

[Torie]

New York

Democrats will increase thir 60-seat majority in the State Assembly and retake the state senate (which is currently 35R-27D).  With Spitzer pulling 70%, the power grab will be complete and we can embark on creating a poorlovers' paradise.  (The reason the GOP currently holds the state senate is because the structre of it favors them; each county gets 1 senator, plus up to an addition two based on population, so the Bronx gets much less proportional represenation than does some backwater hick county upstate.  If the seats were fairly distributed it'd look more like 5:1 D:R).

I rather doubt that, since the state senate seats per that formula would not have equal population, and this is unconsitutional per the Baker v. Carr US supreme court decision. I am sure Brooklyn has more than 3 state senate seats.

[Torie]

In California it is illegal for state legislative seats to change partisan hands. Thus the partisan balance stays the same. Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose.

[© tweed]

New York

Democrats will increase thir 60-seat majority in the State Assembly and retake the state senate (which is currently 35R-27D).  With Spitzer pulling 70%, the power grab will be complete and we can embark on creating a poorlovers' paradise.  (The reason the GOP currently holds the state senate is because the structre of it favors them; each county gets 1 senator, plus up to an addition two based on population, so the Bronx gets much less proportional represenation than does some backwater hick county upstate.  If the seats were fairly distributed it'd look more like 5:1 D:R).

I rather doubt that, since the state senate seats per that formula would not have equal population, and this is unconsitutional per the Baker v. Carr US supreme court decision. I am sure Brooklyn has more than 3 state senate seats.

You're right.  Never mind

[jimrtex]

New York

Democrats will increase thir 60-seat majority in the State Assembly and retake the state senate (which is currently 35R-27D).  With Spitzer pulling 70%, the power grab will be complete and we can embark on creating a poorlovers' paradise.  (The reason the GOP currently holds the state senate is because the structre of it favors them; each county gets 1 senator, plus up to an addition two based on population, so the Bronx gets much less proportional represenation than does some backwater hick county upstate.  If the seats were fairly distributed it'd look more like 5:1 D:R).

I rather doubt that, since the state senate seats per that formula would not have equal population, and this is unconsitutional per the Baker v. Carr US supreme court decision. I am sure Brooklyn has more than 3 state senate seats.

The New York senate reapportionment scheme specifically was ruled unconstitutional in 1964:

WMCA, INC. v. LOMENZO, 377 U.S. 633 (1964)

Maybe New York never fixed up their constitution.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina House:
56 seats with only a Republican candidate
37 seats with only a Democratic candidate
31 seats with both a Republican and a Democratic candidate

So as you can see, the GOP only needs to win 7 of the 31 contested seats to retain control.  I may come back later with a more detailed analysis orI might not.

[jerusalemcar5]

New York

Democrats will increase thir 60-seat majority in the State Assembly and retake the state senate (which is currently 35R-27D).  With Spitzer pulling 70%, the power grab will be complete and we can embark on creating a poorlovers' paradise.  (The reason the GOP currently holds the state senate is because the structre of it favors them; each county gets 1 senator, plus up to an addition two based on population, so the Bronx gets much less proportional represenation than does some backwater hick county upstate.  If the seats were fairly distributed it'd look more like 5:1 D:R).

Most likely, the 49th (my district) will actually swing back to Republicans.  I seriously doubt they'll lose control.  And you're somewhat right.  The NYC districts are all around 5% below what the should be while upstate are around 2-5% greater.  Also, downstate residents who commit crimes and go to state prison and often shipped upstates where they count as upstate residents, giving some upstate areas even more unfair representation.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

OK, I got bored.  All of the contested seats are based purely on the 2004 results, and whether the winner last time is running for re-election, with the exception of District 79

South Carolina House:
56 seats with only a Republican candidate
11 Safe GOP seats
 3 Lean GOP seats
 3 Tossup GOP seats
 2 Tossup Dem seats
 6 Lean Dem seats
 6 Safe Dem seats
37 seats with only a Democratic candidate
31 seats with both a Republican and a Democratic candidate

HD-001 Safe GOP
HD-007 Lean GOP (Open)
HD-012 Safe Dem
HD-015 Lean GOP
HD-018 Safe GOP (Open)
HD-029 Lean Dem (Open)
HD-030 Lean Dem
HD-035 Safe GOP (Open)
HD-036 Lean Dem
HD-045 Tossup (Open Dem)

HD-048 Safe GOP (Open)
HD-055 Lean Dem
HD-056 Safe Dem
HD-060 Safe GOP (Open)
HD-062 Lean Dem (Open)
HD-063 Safe GOP
HD-066 Safe Dem
HD-075 Safe GOP (Open)
HD-077 Safe Dem
HD-079 Tossup (would be Safe GOP except for a pro-sochool voucher candidate running on a petition)

HD-080 Safe Dem
HD-096 Tossup (Open GOP)
HD-097 Tossup (GOP)
HD-104 Safe GOP
HD-107 Safe GOP
HD-108 Lean Dem
HD-115 Safe GOP
HD-119 Lean GOP (Open)
HD-120 Safe Dem
HD-121 Tossup (Open Dem)

HD-123 Safe GOP

Disticts 79 asnd 115 have another reason to be interesting.  The Working Families Party has just as of yesterday gained ballot access and is running fusion tickets with the Democratic nominee in those two races, as well two of the U.S. House races.  SC House 79 is the only possibility of a win as the other three races are safely GOP  Could be interesting if the WFP provides the margin of victory, altho in reality if Anton Gunn wins it'll be because the pro-voucher petition candidate siphons off enough votes from the incumbent Bill Cotty to defeat him.

[WMS]

This thread duplicates this thread. Just so you know.